261
FXUS61 KPHI 261851
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
151 PM EST WED NOV 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. AN ATTACHED COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC TONIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
TOWARDS THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW AND FRONT ARRIVE
FOR SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER STORM MAY AFFECT THE AREA
TOWARDS MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
WARM FRONT STRUGGLING TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT LIKELY CLEARS THE AREA TOWARDS SUNSET. THIS
WILL ALLOW SKIES TO BRIEFLY CLEAR AS TEMPS BRIEFLY WARM UP TO
THE 60S.
IT WON'T LAST HOWEVER, AS STRONG COLD FRONT (CLEARLY VISIBLE
WITH LOW-TOPPED SQUALL LINE ACROSS WESTERN PA AND NY PRESENTLY)
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE REGION NEAR OR NOT LONG AFTER SUNSET.
WE'LL LIKELY SEE AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS INTO OUR REGION WITH THE FRONT. SOME GUSTS TO 45 MPH
CAN'T BE RULED OUT WITH THE FRONT, BUT OVERALL GUSTS SHOULD STAY
JUST SHY OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. THAT SAID, IT MAY FEEL LIKE
QUITE A JOLT SINCE UNTIL THE PASSAGE, WINDS WILL MOSTLY BE 10
MPH OR LESS. WHILE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH A BIT OVERNIGHT,
EXPECT OVERALL IT TO REMAIN BREEZY THRU THE NIGHT, WITH GUSTS OF
20-25 MPH. SKIES WILL PARTLY CLEAR OUT AGAIN POST FRONT AND
TEMPS WILL RAPIDLY FALL, WITH MOST AREAS ENDING THE NIGHT IN THE
30S, 20S IN THE POCONOS.
FOR THANKSGIVING DAY, EXPECT BREEZY/WINDY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS
WITH TIMES OF CLOUDS AND SUN, WITH GREATER CLOUD COVER DURING
THE AFTERNOON. WHILE IT SHOULD STAY DRY, IT WON'T FEEL VERY NICE
WITH HIGHS ONLY RECOVERING TO THE LOW-MID 40S FOR MOST, 30S IN
THE POCONOS. WESTERLY WINDS MAY GUST 30-40 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE AREA WHILE LOW PRESSURE
EXITS EAST OUT OF CANADA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND HIGH WILL RESULT IN
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION BOTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY. GUSTS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE AROUND 20-30 MPH AT TIMES AND
THE GUSTS WILL GENERALLY BE 30 TO 40 MPH FOR FRIDAY WITH SOME PEAK
GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE.. WIND ADVISORY FLAGS ARE POSSIBLE. IT
WILL GENERALLY BE DRY EXCEPT SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS COULD MAKE
IT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE SOUTHERN POCONOS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
EVENING. ANY ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LESS THAN 1 INCH BUT THE SNOW
SHOWERS COMBINED WITH STRONG WINDS COULD STILL CAUSE REDUCED
VISIBILITY MAKING TRAVEL DIFFICULT IN THESE AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THU NIGHT/FRI WITH THE COLDER AIR
FROM CANADA REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS FRI WILL MOSTLY BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S WITH SOME 30S FOR THE SOUTHERN POCONOS. LOWS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 25 AND 30 DEGREES BOTH THU/FRI NIGHTS. WINDS WILL
CREATE WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS THE TEENS TO LOW 20S THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN RIGHT OVER THE AREA FOR SATURDAY WHICH WILL
LEAD TO LIGHTER WINDS BUT CONTINUING COOL TEMPERATURES UNDER PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOW 40S EXCEPT
SOME UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SOMEWHAT MILDER TEMPS ARRIVE FOR SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S FOR SUNDAY AND THEN BACK
TO MAINLY IN THE 40S FOR MONDAY.
A SYSTEM PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH COULD BRING MAINLY SOME RAIN FOR
SUNDAY (POPS AROUND 30 PERCENT SOUTH UP TO 50 PERCENT NORTH) THOUGH
A LITTLE SNOW OR MIXED PRECIP COULD OCCUR IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOS.
DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE IN ON MONDAY.
BEYOND NEXT MONDAY, THERE ARE INDICATIONS ANOTHER WILL LIKELY AFFECT
THE AREA AROUND NEXT TUESDAY. CHILLY AIR WILL ALREADY HAVE ARRIVED
BEHIND THE EARLIER DISTURBANCE SO TEMPS SHOULD ALREADY BE RUNNING A
BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR TUESDAY BUT WILL ULTIMATELY BE INFLUENCED
HEAVILY BY THE TRACK THE LOW TAKES WHICH WILL ALSO AFFECT
PRECIPITATION TYPES. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS AT THIS
POINT GIVEN THAT IT'S A WEAK OUT, BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST
MAINLY RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS FAVORED NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR WITH THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW ACCUMULATING SNOW
BEING NORTH OF THERE. AGAIN, IT'S VERY EARLY AND EXPECT CHANGES AND
REFINEMENT TO THE FORECAST IN THE COMING DAYS. THE SYSTEM COULD
LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN BY LATE
DAY.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THRU TONIGHT....LIFR/IFR SLOWLY IMPROVING TO VFR TOWARDS
SUNSET WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KTS. TOWARDS 0Z, GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS PICK UP WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT (WHICH
MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY SHOWERS), WITH 10-20 KT SUSTAINED
AND 20-30 KT GUSTS DEVELOPING BETWEEN 23Z AND 01Z. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING VFR, THOUGH BRIEF REDUCTION IN VSBY MAY
OCCUR WITH SHOWERS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
THURSDAY...VFR. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE, WITH GUSTS CLOSER
TO 20 KTS IN THE MORNING AND THEN INCREASING TO NEAR 30 KTS IN
THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR. GUSTY WINDS THU./FRI.
SUNDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN ARRIVING.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR MONDAY.
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR OCEAN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EXPANDS TO ALL MARINE ZONE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES IN THE EARLY-MID EVENING, WITH
WINDS RAMPING UP BEHIND THE FRONT. WESTERLY WINDS AFTER 00Z WILL
BE AROUND 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
GALES CAN'T BE RULED OUT NEAR OR JUST AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE.
SEAS 4 TO 6 FEET.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON ALL WATERS THURSDAY
WITH WINDS REMAINING FAIRLY STEADY, 15-25 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
30 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY... GALE WATCH CONTINUES WITH STRENGTHENING
WINDS AND GUSTS 35 TO 40 KTS POSSIBLE. FAIR.
FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT... LOWERING WINDS AND SEAS THRU THE PERIOD WITH SUB-
SCA BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. FAIR WEATHER.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NEXT SYSTEM COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCA
CONDITIONS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THESE CONDITION LIKELY
ABATING BY MONDAY MORNING.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ430-431-450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
SYNOPSIS...COOPER/GUZZO
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS/OHARA
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS/OHARA
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/OHARA/RCM
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/OHARA/RCM
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