955
FXUS61 KPHI 271201
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
701 AM EST THU NOV 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM
THE PLAINS AND EASTWARD TOWARD THE EAST COAST BY SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL PASS OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY WITH COLDER HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING BRIEFLY ON MONDAY. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS
TO IMPACT THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE AREA ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. COLD AND DRIER AIR
CONTINUES TO SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION
THIS MORNING AND THIS AIR IS SOME 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY. THE GUSTY WEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30
MPH AT TIMES WILL MAKE TEMPS FEEL ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
THE AIR TEMPS WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE 30S THRU THE DAY. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.
TONIGHT, SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS EVENING THEN SOME LOW
CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE FOR THE W/NW AREAS AS SOME UPSTREAM LAKE-
EFFECT CLOUDS/SNOW SHOWERS MAKE ITS PRESENCE KNOWN. LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S WITH WIND CHILLS
MOSTLY IN THE TEENS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH AT TIMES.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
THE PERIOD FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE COLD AND
WINDY, BUT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM WILL BE PUSHING
OUT TO SEA ON FRIDAY, WITH SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT RISES AND
SUBSIDENCE THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, WE'LL REMAIN SANDWICHED
BETWEEN AN EXPANSIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA AND COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE, KEEPING A STOUT WESTERLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL SHIFT EAST WITH TIME, AND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PASS INTO THE VICINITY OF OUR AREA THEN OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WILL BE THE SUSTAINED COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, WHICH WILL
TRANSLATE TO HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND LOWS IN THE
MID 20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES. DAYTIME WIND CHILLS WILL ONLY MAX
OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ON FRIDAY, AND WILL DROP INTO THE MID
TEENS TO NEAR 20 DEGREES AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING. AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES INTO THE DAY SATURDAY, WINDS
WILL BECOME LESS OF A FACTOR, SO IT WON'T FEEL QUITE AS COLD
DESPITE AIR TEMPERATURES BEING SIMILAR TO FRIDAY.
SPEAKING OF WINDS, IT WILL BE QUITE WINDY ON FRIDAY WITH
WESTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 MPH WITH PREVAILING GUSTS
NEAR 35-40 MPH. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT STRENGTHENING ALONG WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD
ADVECTION. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS (925-850 MB LEVELS) RESPOND BY
INCREASING TO NEAR 30-40 KTS. WHILE WE CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
GUSTS NEAR 45 MPH IN SPOTS (ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR PA AND NJ
COUNTIES), IT STILL APPEARS WE SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR THIS WIND EVENT. SYNOPTICALLY, THE PATTERN ISN'T
SUPPORTIVE OF AN OVER PERFORMING EVENT LIKE WE HAVE EXPERIENCED
A COUPLE TIMES EARLIER THIS MONTH. THE WINDS WILL LESSEN INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT WILL REMAIN GUSTY WITH GUSTS NEAR 25-30 MPH
POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE NIGHT. WINDS LESSEN EVEN MORE INTO
SATURDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS CLOSER, BUT WE SHOULD STILL
SEE NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10-15 MPH, ESPECIALLY EARLIER IN THE
DAY.
SOME GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES THAT A LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND MAY
EXTEND FAR ENOUGH EAST TO IMPACT THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND FAR
NORTHWEST NJ ON FRIDAY. WE HAVE MAINTAINED 20-40% POPS TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT FOR THOSE AREAS. SOME LIGHT MEASURABLE
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS (GENERALLY LESS THAN 1") WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE POCONO PLATEAU, WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ACCUMULATIONS. IF THE SNOW BAND ENDS UP BEING
WEAKER, THIS COULD END UP BEING MOSTLY JUST FLURRIES.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ANOTHER MOSTLY RAINY SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO IMPACT THE REGION
ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, ALONG WITH A BRIEF REBOUND OF
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A
RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE
SNOWFALL FOR EASTERN PA AND NORTHERN NJ.
A PAIR OF UPPER TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH BRIEF RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE IN BETWEEN ON MONDAY. AT THE
SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY SUNDAY, RESULTING IN A SOUTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
WARM ADVECTION LOCALLY ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING
BRIEFLY ON MONDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT
MONDAY NIGHT, THEN A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT
THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINLY
WITH REGARD TO THE STRENGTH, TRACK, AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM,
WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DICTATE ANY IMPACTS TO OUR REGION.
SUNDAY'S SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAINFALL TO THE AREA, AND
IT IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT. IT IS
STILL OUTSIDE OF OUR QPF PERIOD, HOWEVER INITIAL INDICATIONS
ARE FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS MOSTLY AROUND 0.1-0.25" OR SO. DETAILS
REGARDING TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL REMAIN
A LITTLE UNCLEAR AT THE MOMENT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD
BECOME A BIT GUSTY DURING THE DAYTIME. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
THANKS TO THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S
NORTHWEST OF I-95 AND IN THE LOW TO MID 50S NEAR THE COAST. NOT
AS COLD SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
ANOTHER COLD AND BREEZY POST FRONTAL DAY ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. LOWS IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES AGAIN
MONDAY NIGHT.
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING DETAILS FOR THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY. POPS ARE AROUND 40-50% AREA WIDE. THE GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR IMPACTS FROM ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE FROM NEAR
THE I-78 CORRIDOR AND NORTH, WITH RAIN MORE PROBABLE FROM THE
I-95 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEAST TO THE COAST. WE ARE AT THE "KEEP AN
EYE ON IT" STAGE OF THE FORECAST ON THIS SYSTEM FOR NOW. MOST
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A DRY AND CHILLY WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...VFR. HIGH CLOUDS THEN SOME MID CLOUDS LATE MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 KTS AT TIMES. HIGH CONFID.
TONIGHT...VFR. MOSTLY JUST HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. WEST WINDS 10
TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS. HIGH/MEDIUM CONFID.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WITH PREVAILING GUSTS 30 TO
35 KTS.
SATURDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
SUNDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN.
GUSTY SSW WINDS AND LLWS POSSIBLE.
MONDAY...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS POSSIBLE.
MARINE
STRONG LOW PRESSURE REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE WATERS ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE
PLAINS STATES. THE LOW WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL RIDGE ACROSS OUR AREA
SATURDAY. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS
WILL KEEP FRESH/STRONG WINDS ACROSS OUR WATERS. THE SCA ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW GALE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
BEFORE DAWN TODAY AND AGAIN TOWARDS DAWN FRIDAY. FAIR WEATHER.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...GALE FORCE WESTERLY WIND GUSTS EXPECTED, WITH GUSTS UP
TO 40 KTS. SUSTAINED WINDS 25-35 KTS. THE GALE WATCH WAS
UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING FOR FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
ALL COASTAL WATERS.
FRIDAY NIGHT...ADVISORY CONDITIONS. WNW WINDS 20-30 KTS
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. SEAS 3-6 FEET.
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED.
SOME GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE MORNING. FAIR
WEATHER.
SUNDAY...ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASING TO NEAR 20-25 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING 3-5 FEET. WINDS
SHIFTING NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN LIKELY.
MONDAY...NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED. FAIR WEATHER.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
450>455.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
450>455.
SYNOPSIS...STAARMANN
NEAR TERM...OHARA
SHORT TERM...STAARMANN
LONG TERM...STAARMANN
AVIATION...OHARA/STAARMANN
MARINE...OHARA/STAARMANN
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