600
FXUS61 KPHI 271849
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
149 PM EST THU NOV 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM
THE PLAINS EASTWARD TOWARD THE EAST COAST BY SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL PASS OFFSHORE LATE SUNDAY WITH COLDER HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING BRIEFLY ON MONDAY. A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS
TO IMPACT THE REGION ON TUESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
STRONG SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER
THRU FRIDAY. WHILE THE WIND HAS BEEN PRESENT SO FAR TODAY, THE
GRADIENT IS ACTUALLY A BIT RELAXED COMPARED TO AREAS FURTHER
WEST AND NORTHWEST, SO WE HAVEN'T SEEN THE WORST OF IT...YET.
THE GRADIENT BEING MORE WESTERLY HAS ALSO KEPT MOST FLURRIES AND
SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE LAKES AWAY FROM OUR REGION... SO FAR.
HOWEVER, THEY HAVEN'T KEPT THE CLOUDS AWAY, WHICH ARE MORE DUE
TO AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK THAN THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LURKING
TO OUR WEST.
TONIGHT, THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS TRY TO EDGE FURTHER NORTH
AND EAST AS A TROUGH RORATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW, ALL THE WHILE
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. END RESULT IS NOT MUCH CHANGE, WITH CONTINUED BREEZY
CONDITIONS WITH SOME CLOUDS, BUT A BIT LESS WIND THAN DURING
DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY, AND STILL NO REAL RISK OF LAKE-EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. LOWS END UP BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE
REGION, GENERALLY 20S TO NEAR 30. WIND CHILLS WILL DIP INTO THE
TEENS IN MUCH OF THE AREA, LOW 20S WARMER SPOTS.
CONTINUED EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOWS ON
FRIDAY, COINCIDENT WITH THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ROTATING
AROUND THE CLOSED LOW, WILL RESULT IN SOME CHANGES. AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
ACTUALLY TIGHTEN UP, AND LOSS OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MEANS
WE SHOULD END UP SUNNIER ON FRIDAY THAN TODAY, RESULTING IN
BETTER INSOLATION AND THUS, VERTICAL MIXING. OVERALL THIS WILL
MEAN A WINDIER DAY FRIDAY THAN WHAT WE'VE HAD TODAY, WITH GUSTS
UP TO 40 MPH LIKELY. STILL THINK WE FALL SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS, BUT JUST BARELY. THE OTHER CHANGE WILL BE THE WIND
DIRECTION, WHICH WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS OPPOSED TO
WESTERLY. THIS WILL HELP SHIFT SOME LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES AND
SNOW SHOWERS FURTHER SOUTH, AND THERE'S A DECENT CHANCE SOME OF
THEM MAKE IT INTO THE POCONOS AND NW NJ ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WE'VE KEPT CHANCE POPS WITH A SLIGHT ACCUMULATION ACROSS THESE
REGIONS. DESPITE A BIT MORE SUN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA (OUTSIDE
THE POCONOS/NW NJ), HIGHS LOOK LIKELY TO DROP SLIGHTLY THANKS TO
ENHANCED COLD ADVECTION, WITH MOST AREAS LOW 40S, 30S POCONOS/NW
NJ.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
THE PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE
COLD AND WINDY, BUT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM WILL BE PUSHING
OUT TO SEA BY FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT RISES AND
SUBSIDENCE THROUGH SATURDAY. THE NEXT TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, WE'LL REMAIN SANDWICHED
BETWEEN AN EXPANSIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA AND COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE, KEEPING A STOUT WESTERLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL SHIFT EAST WITH TIME, AND THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PASS INTO THE VICINITY OF OUR AREA THEN OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE MAIN STORY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WILL BE THE SUSTAINED COLD AND WINDY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, WHICH WILL
TRANSLATE TO HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND LOWS IN THE
MID 20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES. WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE MID
TEENS TO NEAR 20 DEGREES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. AS
THE GRADIENT RELAXES INTO THE DAY SATURDAY, WINDS WILL BECOME
LESS OF A FACTOR, SO IT WON'T FEEL QUITE AS COLD DESPITE AIR
TEMPERATURES BEING SIMILAR TO FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL LESSEN FRIDAY NIGHT AS COMPARED TO DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY, BUT WILL REMAIN GUSTY WITH GUSTS NEAR 25-30 MPH
POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE NIGHT. WINDS LESSEN EVEN MORE INTO
SATURDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS CLOSER, BUT WE SHOULD STILL
SEE NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10-15 MPH, ESPECIALLY EARLIER IN THE
DAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ANOTHER MOSTLY RAINY SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED TO IMPACT THE REGION
ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, ALONG WITH A BRIEF REBOUND OF
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A
RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE
SNOWFALL FOR EASTERN PA AND NORTHERN NJ.
A PAIR OF UPPER TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH BRIEF RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE IN BETWEEN ON MONDAY. AT THE
SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
EARLY SUNDAY, RESULTING IN A SOUTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
WARM ADVECTION LOCALLY ON SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING
BRIEFLY ON MONDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT
MONDAY NIGHT, THEN A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT
THE REGION ON TUESDAY. THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINLY
WITH REGARD TO THE STRENGTH, TRACK, AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM,
WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DICTATE ANY IMPACTS TO OUR REGION.
SUNDAY'S SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAINFALL TO THE AREA, AND
IT IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT. IT IS
STILL OUTSIDE OF OUR QPF PERIOD, HOWEVER INITIAL INDICATIONS
ARE FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS MOSTLY AROUND 0.1-0.25" OR SO. DETAILS
REGARDING TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL REMAIN
A LITTLE UNCLEAR AT THE MOMENT. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD
BECOME A BIT GUSTY DURING THE DAYTIME. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND
THANKS TO THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S
NORTHWEST OF I-95 AND IN THE LOW TO MID 50S NEAR THE COAST. NOT
AS COLD SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
ANOTHER COLD AND BREEZY POST FRONTAL DAY ON MONDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. LOWS IN THE 20S TO NEAR 30 DEGREES AGAIN
MONDAY NIGHT.
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING DETAILS FOR THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY. POPS ARE AROUND 40-50% AREA WIDE. THE GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR IMPACTS FROM ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE FROM NEAR
THE I-78 CORRIDOR AND NORTH, WITH RAIN MORE PROBABLE FROM THE
I-95 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEAST TO THE COAST. WE ARE AT THE "KEEP AN
EYE ON IT" STAGE OF THE FORECAST ON THIS SYSTEM FOR NOW. MOST
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A DRY AND CHILLY WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THRU 0Z...VFR WITH MAINLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. GUSTY WEST WINDS 15
TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS AT TIMES. HIGH CONFID.
TONIGHT...VFR. MOSTLY JUST HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. WEST WINDS 10
TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS. HIGH/MEDIUM CONFID.
FRIDAY...VFR. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WITH PREVAILING GUSTS 30 TO
35 KTS BY AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
SUNDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN.
GUSTY SSW WINDS AND LLWS POSSIBLE.
MONDAY...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS POSSIBLE.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS THRU
TONIGHT BEFORE RAMPING UP TO LOW-END GALES ON FRIDAY. DIRECTION
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY WESTERLY. GUST THRU TONIGHT 25-30 KTS,
INCREASING TO AROUND 35 KTS ON FRIDAY. SEAS 3-5 FEET BUILDING TO
4-6 FEET. FAIR WEATHER OTHERWISE.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...ADVISORY CONDITIONS. WNW WINDS 20-30 KTS
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. SEAS 3-6 FEET.
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED.
SOME GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE MORNING. FAIR
WEATHER.
SUNDAY...ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASING TO NEAR 20-25 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING 3-5 FEET. WINDS
SHIFTING NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN LIKELY.
MONDAY...NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED. FAIR WEATHER.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
450>455.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
450>455.
SYNOPSIS...STAARMANN
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...STAARMANN
LONG TERM...STAARMANN
AVIATION...RCM/STAARMANN
MARINE...RCM/STAARMANN
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