642
FXUS61 KPHI 271931
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
231 PM EST THU NOV 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM THE PLAINS
EASTWARD TOWARD THE EAST COAST BY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
OFFSHORE SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
IMPACT THE REGION ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS OFFSHORE LATE
SUNDAY WITH COLDER HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING BRIEFLY ON MONDAY. A
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE REGION ON TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
STRONG SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC WITH CLOSED UPPER LOW
OVER SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER
THRU FRIDAY. WHILE THE WIND HAS BEEN PRESENT SO FAR TODAY, THE
GRADIENT IS ACTUALLY A BIT RELAXED COMPARED TO AREAS FURTHER
WEST AND NORTHWEST, SO WE HAVEN'T SEEN THE WORST OF IT...YET.
THE GRADIENT BEING MORE WESTERLY HAS ALSO KEPT MOST FLURRIES AND
SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE LAKES AWAY FROM OUR REGION... SO FAR.
HOWEVER, THEY HAVEN'T KEPT THE CLOUDS AWAY, WHICH ARE MORE DUE
TO AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK THAN THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE LURKING
TO OUR WEST.
TONIGHT, THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS TRY TO EDGE FURTHER NORTH
AND EAST AS A TROUGH ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW, ALL THE
WHILE WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. END RESULT IS NOT MUCH CHANGE, WITH CONTINUED
BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH SOME CLOUDS, BUT A BIT LESS WIND THAN
DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY, AND STILL NO REAL RISK OF LAKE-
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES. LOWS END UP BELOW FREEZING FOR
MOST OF THE REGION, GENERALLY 20S TO NEAR 30. WIND CHILLS WILL
DIP INTO THE TEENS IN MUCH OF THE AREA, LOW 20S WARMER SPOTS.
CONTINUED EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOWS ON
FRIDAY, COINCIDENT WITH THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ROTATING
AROUND THE CLOSED LOW, WILL RESULT IN SOME CHANGES. AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD EASTWARD, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
ACTUALLY TIGHTEN UP, AND LOSS OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MEANS
WE SHOULD END UP SUNNIER ON FRIDAY THAN TODAY, RESULTING IN
BETTER INSOLATION AND THUS, VERTICAL MIXING. OVERALL THIS WILL
MEAN A WINDIER DAY FRIDAY THAN WHAT WE'VE HAD TODAY, WITH GUSTS
UP TO 40 MPH LIKELY. STILL THINK WE FALL SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY
LEVELS, BUT JUST BARELY. THE OTHER CHANGE WILL BE THE WIND
DIRECTION, WHICH WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY AS OPPOSED TO
WESTERLY. THIS WILL HELP SHIFT SOME LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES AND
SNOW SHOWERS FURTHER SOUTH, AND THERE'S A DECENT CHANCE SOME OF
THEM MAKE IT INTO THE POCONOS AND NW NJ ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WE'VE KEPT CHANCE POPS WITH A SLIGHT ACCUMULATION ACROSS THESE
REGIONS. DESPITE A BIT MORE SUN FOR MUCH OF THE AREA (OUTSIDE
THE POCONOS/NW NJ), HIGHS LOOK LIKELY TO DROP SLIGHTLY THANKS TO
ENHANCED COLD ADVECTION, WITH MOST AREAS LOW 40S, 30S POCONOS/NW
NJ.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, THE WINDS EASE AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EASTWARD BUILDING IN RIGHT OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. EXPECT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 20S FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
HIGHS SATURDAY MAINLY IN THE LOW 40S UNDER MAINLY SUNNY SKIES AND NW
WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS MEANS THAT DESPITE SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES TO FRIDAY, THE WIND CHILLS WILL NOT BE AS LOW.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT, IT BECOMES MAINLY CLOUDY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
EASTWARD OFFSHORE AND THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. THIS WILL BE
ANOTHER MOSTLY RAINY SYSTEM ANTICIPATED TO IMPACT THE REGION MAINLY
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE
MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION PUTTING THE AREA ON THE SYSTEM'S
WARM SIDE. THE SYSTEM WILL BRING MAINLY SOME LIGHT RAINFALL TO THE
AREA, AND IT IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT.
INDICATIONS ARE FOR AROUND .10 TO .25 INCHES OF PRECIP BUT
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT AMOUNTS AND WHERE THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OCCUR. BUT IN ANY EVENT, WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
HYDRO CONCERNS. ALSO, IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF A LITTLE SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THE ONSET
EARLY SUNDAY OVER OUR NW ZONES...MAINLY OVER THE POCONOS BUT
POTENTIALLY AS FAR SOUTH AS PORTIONS OF THE LEIGH VALLEY INTO NW
NJ. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIMITED TO A SLUSHY COATING TO
MAYBE A HALF INCH OR SO BEFORE A CHANGE TO RAIN OCCURS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND SOME THANKS TO THE WARM ADVECTION
REGIME, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S NORTHWEST OF
I-95 (UPPER 30S IN THE POCONOS) AND IN THE LOW TO MID 50S NEAR
THE COAST. FINALLY, SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD BECOME A BIT
GUSTY BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE LONG RANGE PATTERN WILL REMAIN ON THE CHILLY AND ACTIVE SIDE AS
A MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CANADA EXTENDING AT TIMES INTO THE MIDWEST AND NORTHEASTERN
STATES. FOLLOWING SUNDAY'S SYSTEM, FORECAST GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A
MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM NEAR THE GULF COAST NORTH AND
EASTWARD UP THE COAST WHILE DEEPENING. WHILE FORECAST GUIDANCE IS
COMING INTO FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS THAT IT WILL BE TURNING STORMIER
TUESDAY DUE TO THIS LOW, THERE REMAINS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE DETAILS.
GETTING INTO THE DETAILS, FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS
BY TO OUR NORTH AS IT ADVANCES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH EASTERN CANADA.
THIS WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING FROM NW
TO SE WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF AS THIS OCCURS. COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL FOLLOW WITH LOWS BY MONDAY MORNING GENERALLY IN THE 20S TO LOW
30S.
FOR MONDAY, AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER
THE NORTHEAST EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
BRINGING CHILLY BUT DRY CONDITIONS. GENERALLY EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 40S (30S OVER THE SOUTHERN POCONOS). THE DAY SHOULD BEGIN
MAINLY SUNNY WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS STARTING TO MOVE IN BY LATE DAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED, THERE IS A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING DETAILS FOR THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY. IN
TERMS OF THESE DETAILS, HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE DEPARTING AS IT
RETREATS EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL ACCRA AS LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD UP THE COAST WHILE STRENGTHENING. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES THOUGH IN THE MODELS REGARDING THE EXACT SPEED,
STRENGTH, AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM WITH SOME MODELS TRACKING THE
LOW NEAR THE COAST (A WARMER AND RAINIER SETUP) WHILE OTHERS ARE
MORE OFFSHORE (A COLDER AND SNOWIER SETUP). THAT SAID, A
RETREATING HIGH OFF TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OUT TO SEA IS
GENERALLY NOT THE BEST SETUP TO GET A BIG SNOWSTORM NEAR AND
SOUTH/EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND THIS IS WHAT MOST GUIDANCE
SHOWS DESPITE TRACK DIFFERENCES WITH THE LOW. HOWEVER THE
ANTECEDENT AIRMASS WILL BE COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR SO THIS
MAY SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME SNOW AT THE ONSET...ESPECIALLY AWAY
FROM THE COAST. THE BOTTOM LINE: POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO
60-70% AREA WIDE FOR TUESDAY. MAINLY RAIN APPEARS TO BE FAVORED
NEAR THE COAST WITH MORE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF SNOW OR
MIXED/RAIN SNOW NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR WITH A CHANGE TO RAIN
MOST LIKELY OCCURING HERE AS WELL. THE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
IMPACTS FROM ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE N/W OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR AND ESPECIALLY NEAR AND NORTH OF THE I-78 CORRIDOR.
THIS IS OUR BEST THINKING AT THIS TIME BUT IT'S WORTH STRESSING
AGAIN THE OVERALL UNCERTAINTY IN THESE SPECIFIC DETAILS REMAINS
HIGH SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN THEM IS STILL RELATIVELY LOW. THE
SYSTEM SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY WITH MOST
GUIDANCE SUPPORTING A DRY AND CHILLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THRU 0Z...VFR WITH MAINLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. GUSTY WEST WINDS 15
TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS AT TIMES. HIGH CONFID.
TONIGHT...VFR. MOSTLY JUST HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. WEST WINDS 10
TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KTS. HIGH/MEDIUM CONFID.
FRIDAY...VFR. STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WITH PREVAILING GUSTS 30 TO
35 KTS BY AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
SUNDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN. GUSTY
SSW WINDS AND LLWS POSSIBLE.
MONDAY...VFR. GUSTY NW WINDS POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY AS COASTAL STORM BRINGS RAIN/SNOW AND
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS. MAINLY RAIN FAVORED AT MIV AND ACY WITH
SOME SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE I-95 CORRIDOR BEFORE A CHANGE TO RAIN.
BEST CHANCES FOR IMPACTFUL SNOW AT RDG AND ABE.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON THE WATERS THRU
TONIGHT BEFORE RAMPING UP TO LOW-END GALES ON FRIDAY. DIRECTION
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY WESTERLY. GUST THRU TONIGHT 25-30 KTS,
INCREASING TO AROUND 35 KTS ON FRIDAY. SEAS 3-5 FEET BUILDING TO
4-6 FEET. FAIR WEATHER OTHERWISE.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...ADVISORY CONDITIONS. WNW WINDS 20-30 KTS GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. SEAS GENERALLY 3-6 FEET.
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...STILL SOME GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
POSSIBLE THROUGH AROUND MID MORNING SATURDAY BUT OTHERWISE SUB SCA
CONDITIONS WITH FAIR WEATHER.
SUNDAY...ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING TO
NEAR 20-25 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING 3-5 FEET. WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN LIKELY.
MONDAY...NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED. FAIR WEATHER.
TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS RAMPING UP AS COASTAL LOW MOVES UP THE
COAST. AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR GALES.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
450>455.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
450>455.
SYNOPSIS...FITZSIMMONS/STAARMANN
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS/STAARMANN
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS/STAARMANN
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/RCM/STAARMANN
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/RCM/STAARMANN
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