686
FXUS61 KPHI 140659
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
159 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NEARBY THIS MORNING, BRINGING
WINTRY WEATHER WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT CROSSING OUR AREA. THE
CENTER OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY
BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT SHIFTS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT
MAY SLIDE BY TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO CLOSE OUT
THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
EARLY THIS MORNING, SNOW HAS OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE REGION,
GENERALLY AS ANTICIPATED, WITH IT TAKING ITS TIME IN SOUTHERN
AREAS AS EXPECTED. BASED ON TRENDS WITH GUIDANCE, ANOTHER MODEST
UPTICK IN SNOWFALL FORECAST WAS MADE, WHICH NECESSITATED THE
EXPANSION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INTO THE POCONOS AND
THE WINTER STORM WARNING INTO CENTRAL NEW JERSEY. AREAS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND DELAWARE RIVER MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH
CRITERIA, BUT MOST OF THE REGION STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR A
SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL.
SNOW WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING IN MANY AREAS BUT SHOULD BE
MOVING OUT RAPIDLY ONCE IT BEGINS TO DEPART, WHICH THE AREA DRY
BY NOON OR SO. HOWEVER, WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT SLIDING THROUGH,
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP, RESULTING IN AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW. IT WILL BE COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S.
TONIGHT, BLOWING SNOW MAY DIMINISH A LITTLE BUT THE WIND WON'T
DIE DOWN A WHOLE LOT. WHAT DEFINITELY WILL DIMINISH FURTHER WILL
BE THE WIND CHILLS, WHICH WILL HEAD DOWN TOWARDS 0 IN MANY
AREAS, PERHAPS -10 IN THE POCONOS. GIVEN ONGOING WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES, DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY, BUT
ONE MAY DEFINITELY BE IN THE CARDS. ACTUAL LOWS WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE POCONOS TO TEENS MOST EVERYWHERE ELSE. A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY ALSO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE POCONOS LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW, BUT THEIR IMPACT
SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
IN THE WAKE OF THE SNOW, WE SEE A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST WITH A VERY COLD AIRMASS.
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD, WE STAY MAINLY DRY
MONDAY WITH THE WIND DECREASING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
LESSENS. THERE IS THE SIGNAL FOR A PIECE OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY
TO ROTATE INTO THE REGION DURING THE SECOND HALF OF MONDAY. SOME
GUIDANCE BRINGS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO PARTS OF
THE AREA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE HIGH THAT BUILDS IN TO SUPPRESS THIS
ACTIVITY NORTH. AT THIS TIME, KEPT POPS AROUND 25% OR LESS
ACROSS THE POCONOS, LEHIGH VALLEY, BERKS COUNTY, AND
NORTHWESTERN NJ. WE DO SEE MORE CLOUD COVER FILTER IN THROUGH
THE DAY DUE TO THAT PIECE OF UPPER- LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH.
HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR MOST WITH THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE 20S.
MONDAY NIGHT IS ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS
FOR MANY. ONE DIFFERENCE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT IS THE WIND WILL BE MUCH
LESS AT GENERALLY 5-10 MPH, SO WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID TEENS FOR MOST WITH SINGLE DIGIT VALUES IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. FOR TUESDAY, IT IS A DRY DAY WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE
IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
BY TUESDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 20S FOR MOST AND TEENS FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS
CONTINUE TO REMAIN AT AROUND 5-10 MPH, SO WIND CHILL VALUES ARE IN
THE TEENS AND LOW 20S FOR MOST.
OUR WEATHER PATTERN STARTS TO CHANGE BY WEDNESDAY WHICH RESULTS IN
MORE MILD AIR FILTERING IN. OUR HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY WHICH GIVES US MORE OF A SOUTHWEST WIND THAT
USHERS IN WARMER AIR. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE IN THE UPPER 30S TO
UPPER 40S.
A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN THEN LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK. A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THURSDAY MOVES NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC FRIDAY. THIS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THIS
COLD FRONT WILL BE RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S. COME FRIDAY, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
IN WITH TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40S THAT PERSIST INTO SATURDAY
AS WELL.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THRU 12Z...IFR TO LIFR, POSSIBLY VLIFR AT TIMES AS SNOW
OVERSPREADS THE REST OF THE REGION. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERALL, LOWER CONFIDENCE ON EXACT DETAILS.
TODAY...LINGERING IFR CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING WITH SNOW
ENDING. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO LIFT TO VFR BY MIDDAY AT ALL
TERMINALS AS PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME BLOWING SNOW WHICH COULD
REDUCE VSBY AT TIMES BY AFTERNOON, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS SO
KEPT OUT OF TAFS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL.
TONIGHT...VFR WITH CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KTS
WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR EXPECTED. WIND GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT POSSIBLE. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWER AT KRDG AND KABE ON MONDAY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER EXPECTED.
THURSDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MARINE
RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW EARLY, THEN ENDING TOWARDS MIDDAY,
WITH WINDS PICKING UP QUICKLY BEGINNING AFTER DAYBREAK, RAMPING
UP TO GALE- FORCE BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, CONTINUING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THROUGH
TONIGHT. AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY ALSO POSSIBLE LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...GALE-FORCE WIND GUSTS IN THE MORNING WITH A PERIOD OF
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AFTERWARD. AREAS OF FREEZING
SPRAY POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING.
MONDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD LINGER
INTO THE NIGHT WITH WESTERLY WINDS 15-20 KT AND GUSTS PERHAPS
NEAR 25 KT. SEAS 2-4 FEET.
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED WITH WINDS REMAINING BELOW 25 KT AND SEAS
BELOW 5 FEET.
WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS PERHAPS NEAR 25 KT. SEAS
2-4 FEET.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ103-105.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ054-
055-060>062.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ070-
071-101-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NJZ009-010-016-021>025.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-
007-008.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NJZ012>015-017>020-026-027.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ430-431-453>455.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ450>452.
SYNOPSIS...MJL/RCM
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...GUZZO/MJL
LONG TERM...GUZZO/MJL
AVIATION...DESILVA/JOHNSON/RCM
MARINE...MJL/RCM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page