703
FXUS61 KPHI 141111
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
611 AM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NEARBY THIS MORNING, BRINGING
WINTRY WEATHER WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT CROSSING OUR AREA. THE
CENTER OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY
BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT SHIFTS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT
MAY SLIDE BY TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO CLOSE OUT
THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
EARLY THIS MORNING, SNOW HAS OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE REGION,
GENERALLY AS ANTICIPATED, WITH IT TAKING ITS TIME IN SOUTHERN
AREAS AS EXPECTED. BASED ON TRENDS WITH GUIDANCE, ANOTHER MODEST
UPTICK IN SNOWFALL FORECAST WAS MADE, WHICH NECESSITATED THE
EXPANSION OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY INTO THE POCONOS AND
THE WINTER STORM WARNING INTO CENTRAL NEW JERSEY. AREAS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND DELAWARE RIVER MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH
CRITERIA, BUT MOST OF THE REGION STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR A
SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL.
SNOW WILL LINGER INTO THE MORNING IN MANY AREAS BUT SHOULD BE
MOVING OUT RAPIDLY ONCE IT BEGINS TO DEPART, WHICH THE AREA DRY
BY NOON OR SO. WITH PRECIP LAGGING A BIT, EXTENDED NORTHWESTERN
HEADLINES A FEW HOURS, BUT STILL EXPECT THINGS TO END AROUND
NOON AT LATEST. HOWEVER, WITH THE ARCTIC FRONT SLIDING THROUGH,
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP, RESULTING IN AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW. IT WILL BE COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S.
TONIGHT, BLOWING SNOW MAY DIMINISH A LITTLE BUT THE WIND WON'T
DIE DOWN A WHOLE LOT. WHAT DEFINITELY WILL DIMINISH FURTHER WILL
BE THE WIND CHILLS, WHICH WILL HEAD DOWN TOWARDS 0 IN MANY
AREAS, PERHAPS -10 IN THE POCONOS. GIVEN ONGOING WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES, DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY, BUT
ONE MAY DEFINITELY BE IN THE CARDS. ACTUAL LOWS WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE POCONOS TO TEENS MOST EVERYWHERE ELSE. A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY ALSO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE POCONOS LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW, BUT THEIR IMPACT
SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
OUR HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD ON MONDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW
THE WINDS TO DECREASE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LESSENS. THERE IS THE
SIGNAL FOR A PIECE OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY TO ROTATE INTO THE REGION
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT. DUE TO THIS CONTINUED TREND, I ADDED A
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS (GENERALLY 20-40%) FOR MUCH
OF EASTERN PA AND NORTHERN NJ. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD STILL
SUPPRESS THIS ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH WHICH IS WHY POPS WERE CAPPED AT
CHANCE. REGARDLESS, WE DO SEE MORE CLOUD COVER FILTER IN THROUGH THE
DAY DUE TO THAT PIECE OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH. HIGHS ON
MONDAY ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S FOR MOST WITH THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS IN THE MID 20S.
MONDAY NIGHT IS ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS
FOR MANY. WINDS WILL BE LOWER MONDAY NIGHT AT AROUND 10-15 MPH WHICH
RESULTS IN WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS FOR
MOST. FOR TUESDAY, IT IS A DRY DAY WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE IN THE MID 20S TO MID
30S.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 20S FOR MOST AND TEENS FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS
ARE AT AROUND 5-10 MPH, SO WIND CHILL VALUES ARE IN THE TEENS AND
LOW 20S FOR MOST.
OUR WEATHER PATTERN STARTS TO CHANGE BY WEDNESDAY WHICH RESULTS IN
MORE MILD AIR FILTERING IN. OUR HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY WHICH GIVES US MORE OF A SOUTHWEST WIND THAT
USHERS IN WARMER AIR. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S
TO UPPER 40S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY
MOVES NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC FRIDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE WITH THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ON THURSDAY AND MAINLY UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S THURSDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY, A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST AND TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40S FOR MOST. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION SATURDAY WHICH MAY KEEP
US COMPLETELY DRY. HOWEVER, THERE IS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDING CLOSE TO
THE AREA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME THAT MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
INITIATE SOME PRECIPITATION. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY, POPS ARE CAPPED
AT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SATURDAY.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR WITH OCCASIONAL VLIFR CONDITIONS IN
THE MORNING, FOLLOWED BY IMPROVEMENT WITH SNOW ENDING. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO LIFT TO VFR BY MIDDAY AT ALL TERMINALS AS
PRECIPITATION ENDS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS
MAY RESULT IN SOME BLOWING SNOW WHICH COULD REDUCE VSBY AT
TIMES BY AFTERNOON, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS SO KEPT OUT OF
TAFS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL.
TONIGHT...VFR WITH CONTINUED GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KTS
WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...VFR. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KNOTS. SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE (20-30%) OF A SNOW SHOWER AT KABE/KRDG.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
THURSDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MARINE
RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW EARLY, THEN ENDING TOWARDS MIDDAY,
WITH WINDS PICKING UP QUICKLY BEGINNING AFTER DAYBREAK, RAMPING
UP TO GALE- FORCE BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, CONTINUING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THROUGH
TONIGHT. AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY ALSO POSSIBLE LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...GALE-FORCE WIND GUSTS EARLY IN THE MORNING WITH A
PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS AFTERWARD. AREAS OF
FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED WITH WINDS REMAINING BELOW 25 KT AND SEAS
BELOW 5 FEET.
WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS PERHAPS NEAR 25 KT. SEAS 2-4
FEET.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED WITH
WINDS REMAINING BELOW 25 KT AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET.
THURSDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS PERHAPS NEAR 25 KT. SEAS 4-6
FEET.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PAZ103-105.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ054-055-060>062.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ070-
071-101-102-104-106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NJZ009-010-016-021>025.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NJZ001-007-008.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NJZ012>015-017>020-026-027.
DE...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ430-431-453>455.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
ANZ450>452.
SYNOPSIS...GUZZO/RCM
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...GUZZO
LONG TERM...GUZZO
AVIATION...GUZZO/RCM
MARINE...GUZZO/RCM
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