708
FXUS61 KPHI 141954
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
254 PM EST SUN DEC 14 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. THE CENTER OF THE
ARCTIC HIGH SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT
SHIFTS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT MAY SLIDE BY TO OUR NORTH
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
THE COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE WHICH BROUGHT THE AREA A WIDESPREAD
SNOWFALL THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO DEPART AS STRONG, ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. AS A RESULT OF A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES, WINDS HAVE BEEN QUITE
BREEZY WITH GUSTS GENERALLY RANGING BETWEEN 30-40 MPH AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION POURS INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALSO TOPPED OUT
EARLIER THIS MORNING, AND CONTINUE TO FALL THIS AFTERNOON UNDER
A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. A FEW RESIDUAL SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
ARE POSSIBLE, BUT WILL DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET.
TONIGHT, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LESSEN TO AN EXTENT, BUT WINDS
WILL REMAIN BREEZY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-30 MPH CONTINUING. SKIES WILL
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AS WELL. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS IN MANY LOCALES, WITH SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. WHEN
FACTORING THE WIND INTO THE EQUATION, WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE
GENERALLY BETWEEN 0 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE
IN THE POCONOS WHERE WIND CHILLS WILL BE WELL INTO THE NEGATIVES, AS
COLD AS -10 DEGREES. HAVE CONSIDERED COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR
PARTS OF THE AREA (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE POCONO PLATEAU), BUT WITH
ELEVATED WINDS PERSISTING OVERNIGHT, SUSPECT THAT AIR TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT TANK AS MUCH AS THEY TYPICALLY WOULD UNDER CALMER
CONDITIONS. WILL LET THE EVENING SHIFT RE-EVALUATE FURTHER GUIDANCE
AND DETERMINE IF ADVISORIES BECOME WARRANTED. REGARDLESS, IT WILL BE
COLD TONIGHT.
ON MONDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
AND SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEAST US WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
NEARBY. AN IMPULSE WILL ALSO BE TRACKING THROUGH IN THE UPPER
LEVELS, WHICH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE
DAY. WITH ENHANCED LIFT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE ENERGY ALOFT,
THIS MAY RESULT IN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING, MAINLY ACROSS
AREAS NORTHWEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD
BE NEGLIGIBLE WITH PERHAPS UP TO A COATING IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH
POSSIBLE. AS A RESULT OF RECENT SNOW PACK AND CLOUD COVER,
SUSPECT TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE FREEZING MARK ON
MONDAY. FOR MANY HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S
WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MONDAY NIGHT IS ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
TEENS FOR MANY. WINDS WILL BE LOWER MONDAY NIGHT AT AROUND 10-15
MPH WHICH RESULTS IN WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
LOW TEENS FOR MOST. FOR TUESDAY, IT IS A DRY DAY WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE
IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 20S FOR MOST AND TEENS FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS
ARE AT AROUND 5-10 MPH, SO WIND CHILL VALUES ARE IN THE TEENS AND
LOW 20S FOR MOST.
OUR WEATHER PATTERN STARTS TO CHANGE BY WEDNESDAY WHICH RESULTS IN
MORE MILD AIR FILTERING IN. OUR HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY WHICH GIVES US MORE OF A SOUTHWEST WIND THAT
USHERS IN WARMER AIR. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S
TO UPPER 40S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY
MOVES NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC FRIDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE WITH THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ON THURSDAY AND MAINLY UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S THURSDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY, A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST AND TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40S FOR MOST. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION SATURDAY WHICH MAY KEEP
US COMPLETELY DRY. HOWEVER, THERE IS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDING CLOSE TO
THE AREA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME THAT MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
INITIATE SOME PRECIPITATION. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY, POPS ARE CAPPED
AT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SATURDAY.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TODAY (THROUGH 23Z): PRIMARILY VFR, LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS
POSSIBLE AT KACY. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15-20 KT WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 30-35 KT AT TIMES. THIS MAY RESULT IN PERIODS OF BLOWING
SNOW WHICH COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY AT SOME TERMINALS. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE OVERALL.
TONIGHT...VFR WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND
10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10
KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWER AT KABE
AND KRDG. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER.
THURSDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MARINE
GALE WARNINGS FOR ALL ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND THE DELAWARE BAY
ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 AM MONDAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 25-35 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND SEAS OF 4-7 FEET. AREAS OF FREEZING
SPRAY ARE LIKELY.
FOR MONDAY, WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 15-25 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE AND SEAS OF 3-5 FEET. SPOTTY AREAS
OF FREEZING SPRAY MAY CONTINUE.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED WITH WINDS REMAINING BELOW 25 KT AND SEAS
BELOW 5 FEET.
WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS PERHAPS NEAR 25 KT. SEAS 2-4
FEET.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED WITH
WINDS REMAINING BELOW 25 KT AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET.
THURSDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS PERHAPS NEAR 25 KT. SEAS 4-6
FEET.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ430-431-450>455.
SYNOPSIS...DESILVA/GUZZO/RCM
NEAR TERM...DESILVA
SHORT TERM...GUZZO
LONG TERM...GUZZO
AVIATION...DESILVA/GUZZO
MARINE...DESILVA/GUZZO
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