379
FXUS61 KPHI 150512
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1212 AM EST MON DEC 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT. THE CENTER OF THE
ARCTIC HIGH SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT
SHIFTS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT MAY SLIDE BY TO OUR NORTH
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
OVERNIGHT, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LESSEN TO AN EXTENT, BUT
WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-30 MPH CONTINUING.
SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AS WELL BUT PARTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES
FOR THE N/W COUNTIES. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO
THE LOW TO MID TEENS IN MANY LOCALES, WITH SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. WHEN
FACTORING THE WIND INTO THE EQUATION, WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE GENERALLY
BETWEEN 0 TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE
POCONOS WHERE WIND CHILLS WILL BE WELL INTO THE NEGATIVES, AS COLD
AS -15 DEGREES. WE ISSUED A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE POCONO
PLATEAU EARLIER BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR OTHER AREAS ATTM.
ON MONDAY, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
AND SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEAST US WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
NEARBY. AN IMPULSE WILL ALSO BE TRACKING THROUGH IN THE UPPER
LEVELS, WHICH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE
DAY. WITH ENHANCED LIFT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE ENERGY ALOFT,
THIS MAY RESULT IN A FEW SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING, MAINLY ACROSS
AREAS NORTHWEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WOULD
BE NEGLIGIBLE WITH PERHAPS UP TO A COATING IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH
POSSIBLE. AS A RESULT OF RECENT SNOW PACK AND CLOUD COVER,
SUSPECT TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE FREEZING MARK ON
MONDAY. FOR MANY HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S
WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
MONDAY NIGHT IS ANOTHER COLD NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE
TEENS FOR MANY. WINDS WILL BE LOWER MONDAY NIGHT AT AROUND 10-15
MPH WHICH RESULTS IN WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO
LOW TEENS FOR MOST. FOR TUESDAY, IT IS A DRY DAY WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE
IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 20S FOR MOST AND TEENS FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS
ARE AT AROUND 5-10 MPH, SO WIND CHILL VALUES ARE IN THE TEENS AND
LOW 20S FOR MOST.
OUR WEATHER PATTERN STARTS TO CHANGE BY WEDNESDAY WHICH RESULTS IN
MORE MILD AIR FILTERING IN. OUR HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY WHICH GIVES US MORE OF A SOUTHWEST WIND THAT
USHERS IN WARMER AIR. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S
TO UPPER 40S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY
MOVES NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC FRIDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE WITH THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ON THURSDAY AND MAINLY UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S THURSDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY, A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST AND TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40S FOR MOST. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION SATURDAY WHICH MAY KEEP
US COMPLETELY DRY. HOWEVER, THERE IS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDING CLOSE TO
THE AREA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME THAT MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
INITIATE SOME PRECIPITATION. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY, POPS ARE CAPPED
AT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SATURDAY.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 12Z...VFR WITH A FEW MID-LEVEL CLOUDS FOR KRDG/KABE AND
MOST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. ELSEWHERE, IT IS MOSTLY CLEAR. A
WEST-NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT.
WINDS DIMINISH TOWARDS DAYBREAK. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10
KT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWER AT KABE AND KRDG. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. DECREASING CLOUDS WITH A WEST-SOUTHWEST WIND
AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS. WINDS MAY GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
TIMES. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
THURSDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MARINE
GALE WARNINGS FOR ALL ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND THE DELAWARE BAY
ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 AM MONDAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 25-35 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KT ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND SEAS OF 4-7 FEET. AREAS OF FREEZING
SPRAY ARE LIKELY.
FOR MONDAY, WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 15-25 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE AND SEAS OF 3-5 FEET. SPOTTY AREAS
OF FREEZING SPRAY MAY CONTINUE.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED WITH WINDS REMAINING BELOW 25 KT AND SEAS
BELOW 5 FEET.
WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS PERHAPS NEAR 25 KT. SEAS 2-4
FEET.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED WITH
WINDS REMAINING BELOW 25 KT AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET.
THURSDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS PERHAPS NEAR 25 KT. SEAS 4-6
FEET.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ054-
055.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430-431-
450>455.
SYNOPSIS...DESILVA/GUZZO/RCM
NEAR TERM...DESILVA
SHORT TERM...GUZZO
LONG TERM...GUZZO
AVIATION...DESILVA/GUZZO
MARINE...DESILVA/GUZZO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page