473
FXUS61 KPHI 150840
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
340 AM EST MON DEC 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY. THE
CENTER OF THIS ARCTIC HIGH SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH TOMORROW BEFORE
WEAKENING AS IT SHIFTS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT MAY
SLIDE BY TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO CLOSE OUT
THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO
LESSEN, BUT WINDS WILL STILL REMAIN BREEZY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-30
MPH. IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A FEW LOW TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
PASSING THROUGH. THE BITTERLY COLD CONDITIONS REMAIN THE STORY. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS IN MANY
LOCATIONS, WITH SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE
POCONOS AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. WHEN FACTORING THE WIND INTO THE
EQUATION, WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE GENERALLY BETWEEN 0 TO 5 DEGREES
ABOVE ZERO. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE POCONOS WHERE WIND CHILLS
WILL BE WELL INTO THE NEGATIVES, AS COLD AS -15 DEGREES. DUE TO
THESE EXPECTED WIND CHILL VALUES, A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WAS
ISSUED FOR THE POCONOS THROUGH 9AM THIS MORNING.
FOR TODAY, WE FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEAST US WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH NEARBY. AN
IMPULSE WILL ALSO BE TRACKING THROUGH IN THE UPPER LEVELS WHICH WILL
BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THROUGH TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THE UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL LEAD TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. THIS ACTIVITY WOULD MAINLY BE
NEAR AND NORTH OF I-78. ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE MINIMAL WITH
PERHAPS UP TO A COATING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH
REMAINING POSSIBLE. DUE TO THE RECENT SNOW PACK AND THE
INCREASING CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO
REACH ABOVE FREEZING TODAY. HIGHS TODAY ARE IN THE MID 20S TO
LOW 30S WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND 20S.
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS LOWS ARE IN THE TEENS FOR
MANY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TONIGHT AT AROUND 10-15 MPH EARLY AND
THEN 5-10 MPH TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING. WIND CHILL VALUES TONIGHT ARE
IN THE TEENS MAINLY WITH PERHAPS THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
FOR TUESDAY, IT IS A DRY DAY WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS ON TUESDAY ARE IN THE MID 20S TO
MID 30S. BY TUESDAY NIGHT, TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 20S FOR MOST AND TEENS FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. WINDS ARE AT AROUND 5-10 MPH, SO WIND CHILL VALUES
ARE IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S FOR MOST.
OUR WEATHER PATTERN STARTS TO CHANGE BY WEDNESDAY WHICH RESULTS IN
MORE MILD AIR FILTERING IN. OUR HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE
OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY WHICH GIVES US MORE OF A SOUTHWEST WIND THAT
USHERS IN WARMER AIR. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S
TO UPPER 40S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY
MOVES NORTHEAST INTO QUEBEC FRIDAY. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE WITH THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE RAIN AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ON THURSDAY AND MAINLY UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S THURSDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY, A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST AND TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40S FOR MOST. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION SATURDAY WHICH MAY KEEP
US COMPLETELY DRY. HOWEVER, THERE IS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDING CLOSE TO
THE AREA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME THAT MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
INITIATE SOME PRECIPITATION. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY, POPS ARE CAPPED
AT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SATURDAY.
AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 12Z...VFR WITH A FEW LOW TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS FOR
KRDG/KABE AND MOST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. ELSEWHERE, IT IS MOSTLY
CLEAR. A WEST-NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO
20-25 KT. WINDS DIMINISH TOWARDS DAYBREAK. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10
KT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWER AT KABE AND KRDG. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY NIGHT...VFR. DECREASING CLOUDS WITH A WEST-SOUTHWEST WIND
AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS. WINDS MAY GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
TIMES. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
THURSDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MARINE
GALE WARNINGS FOR ALL ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH 7 AM TODAY. THE GALE WARNING FOR THE DELAWARE BAY WAS
ALLOWED TO BE CANCELLED AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW GOES
UNTIL 1 PM TODAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 20-30 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KT ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SEAS OF 4-7
FEET ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY
REMAIN POSSIBLE. ON THE DELAWARE BAY, NORTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN
15-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT WITH ROUGH WATERS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY, A WEST-NORTHWEST WIND WILL CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH TO AROUND 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT POSSIBLE
EARLY WITH SEAS OF 3-5 FEET. SPOTTY AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY MAY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MONDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED
WITH WINDS REMAINING BELOW 25 KT AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED WITH WINDS REMAINING BELOW 25 KT AND SEAS
BELOW 5 FEET.
WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS PERHAPS NEAR 25 KT. SEAS 2-4
FEET.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED WITH
WINDS REMAINING BELOW 25 KT AND SEAS BELOW 5 FEET.
THURSDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS PERHAPS NEAR 25 KT. SEAS 4-6
FEET.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ054-
055.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ430-
431.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ450>455.
SYNOPSIS...GUZZO/RCM
NEAR TERM...GUZZO
SHORT TERM...RCM
LONG TERM...RCM
AVIATION...GUZZO/RCM
MARINE...GUZZO/RCM
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