837
FXUS61 KPHI 151756
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1256 PM EST MON DEC 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY. THE
CENTER OF THIS ARCTIC HIGH SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY BEFORE
WEAKENING AS IT SHIFTS OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT MAY
SLIDE BY TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO CLOSE OUT
THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
FOR TODAY, WE FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEAST US WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
NEARBY. AN IMPULSE WILL ALSO BE TRACKING THROUGH IN THE UPPER
LEVELS WHICH WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THROUGH
TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THE UPPER-LEVEL
ENERGY WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS. THIS
ACTIVITY WOULD MAINLY BE NEAR AND NORTH OF I-78. ANY
ACCUMULATION WILL BE MINIMAL WITH PERHAPS UP TO A COATING IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH
TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH REMAINING POSSIBLE. DUE TO THE
RECENT SNOW PACK AND THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH ABOVE FREEZING TODAY. HIGHS TODAY
ARE IN THE MID 20S TO LOW 30S WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS AND
20S.
ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS LOWS ARE IN THE TEENS
FOR MANY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER TONIGHT AT AROUND 10-15 MPH
EARLY AND THEN 5-10 MPH TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING. WIND CHILL
VALUES TONIGHT ARE IN THE TEENS MAINLY WITH PERHAPS THE SINGLE
DIGITS FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES BY TO OUR SOUTH BY TUESDAY, WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TAKING HOLD. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
MODERATE A BIT, WITH MOST PLACES RETURNING TO THE 30S, ALBEIT
MOSTLY THE LOWER 30S. WE SHOULD START WITH SUNSHINE, BUT AN
APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING IN MAY BRING MORE CLOUDS
BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THE HIGH SLIDES EAST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT WITH THE
FLOW SLACKENING A BIT. THE WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES, AND WITH
CLEARING SKIES, WE SHOULD RADIATE BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S AND
TEENS.
A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY, BUT
WITH NO PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER, THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD
HELP BOOST TEMPS MORE, WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 40S FOR MOST
DESPITE THE RETURN OF CLOUDS.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BEHIND SAID COLD FRONT, BUT THERE
ISN'T MUCH COLD AIR WITH IT AS ITS MORE OF A PACIFIC ORIGIN
HIGH. LOWS IN THE 20S FOR MOST.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THAT NEXT WEAK HIGH QUICKLY MOVES EAST OFF THE COAST AND
STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM ON
THURSDAY. CLOUDS WILL BECOME MORE DOMINANT AGAIN BUT THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD BRING MILDER AIR NORTH, ALLOWING MANY
SPOTS TO APPROACH OR PASS 50. FOR MANY AREAS THIS LOOKS LIKE THE
WARMEST DAY IN WEEKS.
A STRONG COLD FRONT ATTACHED TO A LOW MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING, WITH A PERIOD OF RAIN ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT LIKELY STAY ABOVE
FREEZING FOR MOST, BUT COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT DROPS
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 40S FOR MOST ON FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
WITH LOWS BACK IN THE TEENS AND 20S FRIDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY
HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S SATURDAY. WHILE WE SHOULD SEE SOME
CLEARING FRIDAY NIGHT, CLOUDS LIKELY BEGIN RETURNING SATURDAY AS
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES.
THIS NEXT FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY, WITH A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPS COMPARED TO
THE PRIOR 24 HOURS.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TODAY (THROUGH 23Z)...VFR. INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SNOW SHOWER AT KABE AND KRDG. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. DECREASING CLOUDS. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KT OR
LESS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TUESDAY...VFR. CLEAR SKIES IN THE MORNING, WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE MORNING
AROUND 5-10 KT, SETTLE OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
NO AVIATION CONCERNS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY. A STORM SYSTEM MAY THEN BRING SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN AND WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 KTS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 1:00 PM, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR THE ATLANTIC
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK NJ TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ UNTIL 4
PM THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS CONTINUE TO REMAIN ELEVATED AROUND
25-30 KT. ALL OTHER SCA'S HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SEAS OF 2-4 FEET. FOR TONIGHT, NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED WITH WINDS REMAINING BELOW 25 KT AND SEAS
BELOW 5 FEET.
OUTLOOK...
NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED TUESDAY. SCA CONDITIONS MAY THEN
DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, POSSIBLY DIMINISHING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE RESUMING THURSDAY. GALES POSSIBLE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ430-
431-452>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ450-
451.
SYNOPSIS...GUZZO/RCM
NEAR TERM...GUZZO
SHORT TERM...RCM
LONG TERM...RCM
AVIATION...DESILVA/GUZZO/RCM
MARINE...DESILVA/GUZZO/RCM
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