856
FXUS61 KPHI 011439
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
939 AM EST THU JAN 1 2026
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL EXTEND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO
DELMARVA LATER TODAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF OUR REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES OUR AREA WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
THE COLD FRONT AND SNOWS FROM EARLIER TODAY HAVE CLEARED THE
SOUTHERN POTIONS OF OUR CWA AS OF 930AM. DRIER AND COLDER AIR
ARE PRESENTLY SWEEPING ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION AS A
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL US. NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL REMAIN 15 TO 20 MPH WITH 25 TO 35 MPH GUSTS FOR MOST
OF THE DAY, THEN WINDS DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS
OF DIURNAL HEATING AND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE COLD, EVEN FOR EARLY JANUARY, TOPPING OFF IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S, EXCEPT FOR SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND DELMARVA,
WHERE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND SOME MORE
SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION. WHILE SOME FLURRIES ARE
POSSIBLE, NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN THAT. WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED,
GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS TO 15 MPH OR SO. THOSE
WINDS, COMBINED WITH CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS FROM DEVELOPING. THAT SAID, COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL BE UNDERWAY AND LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
WIND CHILLS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
FRIDAY IS A DRY DAY, ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME TROUGHING TO THE
NORTH INTO FRIDAY WHICH KEEPS SOME CLOUDS AROUND. THERE WILL BE
ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGHING AND
SOME LAKE EFFECT DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS WELL, WHICH MAY RESULT IN
SOME FLURRIES REACHING INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF OUR AREA. THIS
ACTIVITY LOOKS LIMITED AT THIS TIME. HIGHS ON FRIDAY ARE MAINLY IN
THE 30S (20S IN THE POCONOS AND FAR NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY).
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST FRIDAY NIGHT
AND EASTWARD INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER
FRIDAY NIGHT AND FOR MOST OF SATURDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT IS MOSTLY
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS ARE IN THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S FRIDAY
NIGHT. CLOUDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY FROM THE SOUTH AS AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND TRAVELS
NORTHEASTWARD. MOST OF THE DAY IS DRY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S
FOR MANY.
FOR THE TIME PERIOD OF SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING,
THERE WILL BE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ALONG
WITH TWO PIECES OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WITH ONE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA INTO DELMARVA AND ONE TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA. GENERALLY, THE
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE DEVELOPING LOW WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL DEPEND NOT JUST ON THE TRACK
OF THE SURFACE LOW, BUT ALSO DRY AIR NORTHWARD AND IF THE TROUGH
ALOFT SHARPENS UP A BIT MORE. THE LATTER WOULD INVOLVE THE SOUTHERN
ENERGY PHASING MORE WITH THE NORTHERN ENERGY, AND THEREFORE
SOMETHING TO WATCH. GIVEN THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY, MADE NO CHANGES
FROM THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) WHICH PAINTS SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE POPS FROM ABOUT I-95 SOUTH AND EAST. AS OF NOW, THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE A QUICK MOVER AS IT EXITS VERY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SUMMARY...COLD CONDITIONS, THEN SOME MILDER AIR STARTS TO ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY.
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...A SHARPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS
THE EAST SUNDAY, THEN A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT CROSSES THE NORTHEAST LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND MAY
AMPLIFY THE TROUGH FOR A TIME. ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES
THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO ADJACENT CANADA WEDNESDAY. AT THE
SURFACE, A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS OUR AREA LATE TUESDAY OR DURING
WEDNESDAY.
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS THE AXIS OF A SHARPENING UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH PIVOTS ACROSS THE EAST SUNDAY MORNING, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO TRACK OUT TO SEA AS IT IS CENTERED WELL EAST OF
DELMARVA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE THEN SLIDES ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY BUT QUICKLY SHIFTS
OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT. SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A CLIPPER
TYPE SYSTEM IN THE GREAT LAKES COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE
MONDAY ACROSS MAINLY PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS.
THIS FEATURE LOOKS WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED THEREFORE ANY SNOW THAT
WOULD OCCUR, AS OF NOW, LOOKS TO BE RATHER LIGHT.
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SOME MID LEVEL RIDGING ARRIVES ACROSS
OUR AREA DURING TUESDAY AS THE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS
OUR REGION. A TROUGH IN THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES WILL TOSS
A WARM FRONT OUR WAY, AND WITH RETURN FLOW BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED,
A MILDER AIR MASS WILL START TO ARRIVE ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT IS
UNCERTAIN, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT THE MAIN ENERGY MAY END UP LIFTING
WELL TO OUR NORTH, THUS LEAVING OUR REGION WITHIN AN AREA OF MUCH
WEAKER FORCING. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY ARE
FORECAST TO TOP OUT SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH FEW CLOUDS. W TO NW WINDS 15 TO 20
KT WITH 25 TO 30 KT GUSTS. MODERATE/HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. NSW. W WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR, HOWEVER IF A SOUTHERN SYSTEM SHIFTS FAR
ENOUGH NORTH THEN A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SOME
LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR.
MARINE
A COLD FRONT, WHICH CROSSED THE WATERS EARLIER TODAY, WILL CONTINUE
EAST OF THE WATERS THRU THE DAY. OVERALL, SCA GUSTS WILL PREDOMINATE
TODAY BUT A FEW BRIEF, SPORADIC GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. RIGHT
NOW. WE DON'T THINK THE GUSTS WILL BE FREQUENT ENOUGH NOR WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A GALE WARNING.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH FAIR WEATHER.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
431-450>455.
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...MPS/PO
SHORT TERM...GORSE/GUZZO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/MPS/PO
MARINE...GORSE/MPS
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