512
FXUS61 KPHI 020216
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
916 PM EST THU JAN 1 2026
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL EXTEND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO
DELMARVA LATER TODAY AND LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF OUR REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES OUR AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
TONIGHT, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL SETTLE
DOWN. WINDS WILL BECOME MOSTLY WEST AROUND 10 MPH. WHILE TEMPS
WILL FALL OVERNIGHT, THE LOWERING WINDS WILL KEEP THE WINDCHILLS
JUST OUTSIDE OF CRITERIA FOR COLD WEATHER ADVISORY. WE'LL
MONITOR THIS OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS
N/W AND LOW 20S S/E. WINDS CHILLS WILL BE -5 TO 10 N/W AND 10
TO 20 S/E. SKY COVER WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY AS UPPER SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL CROSS THE AREA.
ON FRIDAY, THE WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION AND
SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE MID/LATE
MORNING. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BY-IN-LARGE, BUT A COUPLE SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN POCONOS COULD DEVELOP AS WINDS AT THE
LOWEST LEVELS TURN MORE NW DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE ARE NOT
EXPECTING ANY ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS CARBON OR MONROE COUNTIES ATTM.
HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO WHAT THEY WERE THURSDAY WITH
UPPER 20S/LOW 30S N/W AND MID/UPPER 30S S/E. HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW
40S POSSIBLE FOR FAR SOUTH DELAWARE.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MIDWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EASTWARD INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER FRIDAY
NIGHT AND FOR MOST OF SATURDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT IS MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS ARE IN THE LOW TEENS TO LOW 20S. CLOUDS
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY FROM THE SOUTH AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND TRAVELS
NORTHEASTWARD. MOST OF THE DAY IS DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S FOR
MANY.
FOR THE TIME PERIOD OF SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING,
THERE WILL BE AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ALONG
WITH TWO PIECES OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WITH ONE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA INTO DELMARVA AND ONE TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA. GENERALLY, THE
GUIDANCE KEEPS THE DEVELOPING LOW WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL DEPEND NOT JUST ON THE TRACK
OF THE SURFACE LOW, BUT ALSO DRY AIR NORTHWARD AND IF THE TROUGH
ALOFT SHARPENS UP A BIT MORE. THE LATTER WOULD INVOLVE THE SOUTHERN
ENERGY PHASING MORE WITH THE NORTHERN ENERGY, AND THEREFORE
SOMETHING TO WATCH. GIVEN THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY, MADE NO CHANGES
FROM THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) WHICH PAINTS SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE AREAS WHICH ESSENTIALLY
INCLUDES CAPE MAY COUNTY IN NJ AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
DELMARVA. AS OF NOW, THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE A QUICK MOVER AS IT
EXITS VERY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY, THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
MOVE EASTWARD AND ALLOWS FOR CLOUDS TO DECREASE. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY ARE IN THE MID 30S TO LOW 40S FOR MOST.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
OUR HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD INTO MONDAY AND KEEPS THE
DAY MAINLY DRY. THERE IS A PIECE OF UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY THAT ROTATES
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST MONDAY WHICH LOOKS TO BE A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM AT THE SURFACE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS WEAK SYSTEM
TO BRING LIGHT SNOW TO OUR NORTH AND WEST ZONES BUT MOISTURE LOOKS
LIMITED, SO ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE LIGHT. POPS ARE CURRENTLY AT
SLIGHT CHANCE AS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE SURFACE HIGH TO KEEP
MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY SUPPRESSED TO THE NORTH. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S.
OUR NEXT SYSTEM THEN APPROACHES TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE
SURFACE HIGH STARTS TO FULLY MOVE OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS WE
SEE RETURN FLOW FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY AND A WARM
FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY, WE START TO WARM UP.
HIGHS REACH THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S ON TUESDAY AND UPPER 40S TO MID
50S ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE (20-40%) POPS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH
PRECIPITATION MAKES IT INTO OUR AREA AS THE UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM MAY REMAIN DISPLACED TO THE NORTH.
AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT... VFR. BKN-OVC CIGS DEVELOPING FROM WEST TO EAST. NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS. HIGH CONFID.
FRIDAY... VFR. MORNING CIGS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN FL040 AND
FL070, SCATTERING OR EVEN CLEARING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. WEST
WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 5-10 KT BUT A BRIEF PERIOD FROM MIDDAY
UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON OF WESTERLY WINDS 10-15 KT AND GUSTS
NEAR 20 KT ANTICIPATED. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR, HOWEVER IF A SOUTHERN SYSTEM SHIFTS FAR
ENOUGH NORTH, THEN A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR.
MARINE
NO MARINE HEADLINES IN PLACE WITH THE REMAINING SCAS ENDING A
BIT EARLY. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW. WINDS
OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 20 KT AND SEAS 2 TO 3
FEET.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/GUZZO
NEAR TERM...HOEFLICH/OHARA
SHORT TERM...GORSE/GUZZO
LONG TERM...GUZZO
AVIATION...GUZZO/HOEFLICH/OHARA
MARINE...GUZZO/HOEFLICH/OHARA
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