907
FXUS61 KPHI 021113
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
613 AM EST FRI JAN 2 2026
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO
DELMARVA INTO THE WEEKEND. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF
OUR REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY, WHILE ANOTHER ONE
TRACKS TO OUR NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES OUR AREA LATER
WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING FOR THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
LIGHT SNOW BANDS CONTINUE TO ERODE, AND EXPECT THE SNOW BANDS TO
BE OUT OF OUR AREA BY MID MORNING.
DRY, ALBEIT CONTINUED COLD WEATHER, IS EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS LIFTING AWAY
FROM OUR REGION. THE MID LEVEL JET STREAK WILL BE OVER OUR
REGION LATER TODAY AS IT DOES SO (GFS DEPICTS AN IMPRESSIVE
120KT JET MAX AT 500MB AT 21Z TODAY), BUT OUR REGION IS IN AN
UNFAVORABLE LOCATION FOR ANY SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT FROM THE JET
DYNAMICS (THE JET MAX WILL BE PRETTY MUCH CENTERED OVER US, WITH
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE AND LEFT EXIT REGIONS WELL AWAY FROM OUR
AREA. CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY TO START THE WEEKEND
HAS A WEAK EXTENSION INTO DELMARVA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF SATURDAY. CLOUDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY FROM THE SOUTH AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND TRAVELS EASTWARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY
ARE MOSTLY IN THE 30S.
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND
TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR ENTIRE REGION, ALTHOUGH
THIS WILL DEPEND ON IF THE TROUGH ALOFT SHARPENS UP A BIT MORE. IF
THIS WOULD TO OCCUR THEN THE SOUTHERN ENERGY PHASES MORE WITH THE
NORTHERN ENERGY. THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME AND SOME DOWNWARD
TREND IN THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODELS (NBM) POPS HAVE OCCURRED.
STILL HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE (20 PERCENT) TO LOW CHANCE (30
PERCENT) POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA (HIGHEST CLOSER TO THE COAST). IT
IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT OUR REGION SEES NO PRECIPITATION FROM THIS
SYSTEM AS IT QUICKLY MOVES OUT TO SEA VERY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
SOME GUIDANCE HOWEVER IS A LITTLE SHARPER WITH THE NORTHERN ENERGY
AND THEREFORE BRINGS SOME LIGHT SNOW TO OUR NORTHERN AREAS SATURDAY
NIGHT.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY, HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
EASTWARD AND ALLOWS FOR CLOUDS TO DECREASE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE
MOSTLY IN THE 30S, AND THERE WILL BE A NORTHWEST BREEZE WHICH WILL
ADD TO THE CHILL.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SUMMARY...COLD CONDITIONS TO START THE WEEK, THEN IT TURNS MILDER.
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT CROSSES THE NORTHEAST LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SLIDES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER
TROUGH MAY ARRIVE LATER THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH IT COULD WEAKEN AS IT
DOES SO. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CROSS OUR AREA LATER
WEDNESDAY.
FOR MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS OUR AREA BUT
QUICKLY SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT. SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION
AHEAD OF A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IN THE GREAT LAKES COULD PRODUCE SOME
LIGHT SNOW LATE MONDAY MAINLY NORTH OF OUR AREA. THIS FEATURE LOOKS
WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED WITH ANY LIFT TO OUR NORTH. A PERIOD OF
MORE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN BELOW AVERAGE,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S (20 ACROSS THE FAR NORTH).
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING BY MAY
DROP A FRONT CLOSE TO OUR AREA, HOWEVER THIS SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY A
WARM FRONT AS RETURN FLOW BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED ON THE BACKSIDE
OF DEPARTED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL BOOST AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY INTO THE 40S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY, A WEAK
SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE TIED TO IT. THIS FEATURE IS ALSO FORECAST TO
TRACK TO OUR NORTH, HOWEVER ITS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA
LATER WEDNESDAY. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT IS
UNCERTAIN, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT THE MAIN ENERGY MAY END UP LIFTING
WELL TO OUR NORTH, THUS LEAVING OUR REGION WITHIN AN AREA OF MUCH
WEAKER FORCING. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO
TOP OUT SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO EVEN
LOW TO MID 50S.
FOR THURSDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO BE MORE ZONAL WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDING ACROSS OUR AREA. SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR SHOULD BE
WITH THIS AND ALSO IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE HOWEVER. A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY
WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES OUR REGION. SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD
RESULT ALONG WITH SOME VERY LOW CHANCES FOR SOME RAIN AT THIS
POINT.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY... PREVAILING VFR. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN
END SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE W OR NW AROUND
10 KT, WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE (20-30 PERCENT) SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY, OTHERWISE VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE (30-40%) THAT WIND
GUSTS WILL REACH 25 KT OR HIGHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING, PRIMARILY ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS ADJACENT TO
NEW JERSEY, BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE THAT IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WIND GUSTS COULD NEAR 25 KNOTS FOR A TIME
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, OTHERWISE THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...GORSE/GUZZO
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/JOHNSON
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON
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