537
FXUS61 KPHI 022259
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
559 PM EST FRI JAN 2 2026
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO
DELMARVA INTO THE WEEKEND. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH OF
OUR REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY, WHILE ANOTHER ONE
TRACKS TO OUR NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT CROSSES OUR AREA LATER
WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING FOR THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
OVERNIGHT, WE SEE MORE OF A WEST-NORTHWEST WIND WHICH WILL
STILL ALLOW SOME OF THE UPSTREAM LAKE EFFECT MOISTURE TO KEEP
CLOUDS AROUND LONGER ACROSS OUR NW ZONES AND PERHAPS SOME
POCKETS OF FLURRIES OR A LIGHT SNOW SHOWER. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
TO DECREASE TONIGHT AND WE TREND DRIER. THIS IS AS A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. LOWS TONIGHT
ARE IN THE TEENS FOR MOST.
ON SATURDAY, WE SEE CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND TRAVELS OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. MOST OF SATURDAY LOOKS DRY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
30S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND
TRACK WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR ENTIRE REGION, ALTHOUGH
THIS WILL DEPEND ON IF THE TROUGH ALOFT SHARPENS UP A BIT MORE. IF
THIS WOULD TO OCCUR THEN THE SOUTHERN ENERGY PHASES MORE WITH THE
NORTHERN ENERGY. STILL HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE (20 PERCENT) TO LOW
CHANCE (30 PERCENT) POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA (HIGHEST CLOSER TO THE
COAST). IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT OUR REGION SEES NO PRECIPITATION
FROM THIS SYSTEM AS IT QUICKLY MOVES OUT TO SEA VERY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. SOME GUIDANCE HOWEVER IS A LITTLE SHARPER WITH THE NORTHERN
ENERGY AND THEREFORE BRINGS SOME LIGHT SNOW TO OUR NORTHERN AREAS
SATURDAY NIGHT.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF SUNDAY, HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE
EASTWARD AND ALLOWS FOR CLOUDS TO DECREASE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE
MOSTLY IN THE 30S, AND THERE WILL BE A NORTHWEST BREEZE WHICH WILL
ADD TO THE CHILL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT,
KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY. LOWS WILL BE IN TEENS AND 20S ONCE AGAIN
WITH A LIGHT WIND RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS SQUARELY IN THE TEENS
WITH AREAS ACROSS THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF NW NJ AND THE POCONOS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 0.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THE REGION DRY AND COLD MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IN THE GREAT LAKES
COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE MONDAY MAINLY NORTH OF OUR AREA.
THIS FEATURE LOOKS WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED WITH ANY LIFT TO OUR
NORTH.
COME TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
BRING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE REGION. AHEAD OF THE LOW, A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION, HELPING BOOST AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
50S ON WEDNESDAY! THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA LATER
WEDNESDAY, BUT WILL BE RATHER WEAK. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS
FRONT IS UNCERTAIN, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT THE MAIN ENERGY MAY END UP
LIFTING WELL TO OUR NORTH, THUS LEAVING OUR REGION WITHIN AN AREA OF
MUCH WEAKER FORCING. TEMPERATURE-WISE, THE COLD FRONT WON'T BE TOO
SIGNIFICANT WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONLY FALLING INTO THE 30S,
WHICH IS STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.
FOR THURSDAY, THE FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO BE MORE ZONAL WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDING ACROSS OUR AREA. ONLY A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FORECAST
TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES OUR REGION.
SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD RESULT ALONG WITH SOME VERY LOW
CHANCES FOR SOME RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM ARRIVES FRIDAY
WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR RAIN AND WARM TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...VFR. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SATURDAY...VFR. A WEST/NORTHWEST AROUND 5 TO 10 KT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE (20-30 PERCENT) SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY, OTHERWISE VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH A WEAK STORM SYSTEM PUSHING THROUGH.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE (AROUND 20%) THAT WIND GUSTS
WILL REACH 25 KT THROUGH THIS EVENING ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS
ADJACENT TO NEW JERSEY. DUE TO THE LOW PROBABILITY OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AND WINDS DECREASING TONIGHT, NO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NW TONIGHT AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20
KNOTS. SEAS OF 2-3 FEET. ON SATURDAY, WINDS ARE OUT OF THE NW AT 5-
10 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF 2 FEET.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WIND GUSTS COULD NEAR 25
KNOTS FOR A TIME SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, OTHERWISE THE
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...GUZZO/HOEFLICH
SHORT TERM...MJL
LONG TERM...GORSE/MJL
AVIATION...GUZZO/HOEFLICH/MJL
MARINE...GUZZO/MJL
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