521
FXUS61 KPHI 030639
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
139 AM EST SAT JAN 3 2026
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
TO DELMARVA INTO THE WEEKEND. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
SOUTH OF OUR REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY, WHILE
ANOTHER ONE TRACKS TO OUR NORTH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE INTO TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES OUR AREA LATER WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING
FOR THURSDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGH PRESSURE NOSING EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER DRY BUT CHILLY THROUGH TONIGHT. FOR TODAY, WE'LL START
WITH SOME SUN, BUT TWO APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS, ONE TO
THE SOUTHWEST AND ANOTHER TO THE NORTHWEST, WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS, SUCH THAT OVERALL, THIS WON'T BE A
PARTICULARLY SUNNY DAY. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT, MAINLY
5-10 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS, AND WITH TEMPS APPROACHING THE
FREEZING POINT IN MUCH OF THE AREA, EVEN EXCEEDING IT FROM
PHILLY SOUTH, IT WON'T FEEL ALL THAT BAD.
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS PUT MUCH OF OUR REGION IN THE SLOT OF
SINKING AIR BETWEEN THE TWO STORMS PASSING US TONIGHT. GUIDANCE
STILL HOLDS SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES,
AND WENT WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER WHERE MORE
GUIDANCE PRODUCES SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH THE NORTHERN LOW
PRESSURE. LOWS MOSTLY 20S, TEENS NW NJ AND THE POCONOS, BUT WITH
LIGHT WINDS.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
FOR SUNDAY, HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD AND ALLOWS
FOR CLOUDS TO DECREASE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE MOSTLY IN THE 30S,
AND THERE WILL BE A NORTHWEST BREEZE WHICH WILL ADD TO THE
CHILL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SUNDAY NIGHT, KEEPING THE
FORECAST DRY. LOWS WILL BE IN TEENS AND 20S ONCE AGAIN WITH A
LIGHT WIND RESULTING IN WIND CHILLS SQUARELY IN THE TEENS WITH
AREAS ACROSS THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF NW NJ AND THE POCONOS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO AROUND 0.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE KEEPS THE REGION DRY AND COLD MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT. A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM IN THE GREAT LAKES
COULD PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE MONDAY MAINLY NORTH OF OUR AREA.
THIS FEATURE LOOKS WEAK AND MOISTURE STARVED WITH ANY LIFT TO OUR
NORTH.
COME TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
BRING A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE REGION. AHEAD OF THE LOW, A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE REGION, HELPING BOOST AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 40S TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
50S ON WEDNESDAY! THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR AREA LATER
WEDNESDAY, BUT WILL BE RATHER WEAK. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH THIS
FRONT IS UNCERTAIN, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT THE MAIN ENERGY MAY END UP
LIFTING WELL TO OUR NORTH, THUS LEAVING OUR REGION WITHIN AN AREA OF
MUCH WEAKER FORCING. TEMPERATURE-WISE, THE COLD FRONT WON'T BE TOO
SIGNIFICANT WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ONLY FALLING INTO THE 30S,
WHICH IS STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO.
FOR THURSDAY, THE FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO BE MORE ZONAL WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDING ACROSS OUR AREA. ONLY A SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FORECAST
TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES OUR REGION.
SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS SHOULD RESULT ALONG WITH SOME VERY LOW
CHANCES FOR SOME RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM ARRIVES FRIDAY
WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR RAIN AND WARM TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THRU 12Z...VFR. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
TODAY...VFR. A WEST/NORTHWEST AROUND 5 TO 10 KT WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. CHANCE OF SUB-VFR WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT
SNOW, MOST LIKELY AT KABE. FOR NOW WILL KEEP VCSH JUST IN KABE
TAF AND KEEP OUT OF REMAINDER. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY, MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH A WEAK STORM SYSTEM PUSHING THROUGH.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS OUT OF THE NW AT 5-10 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF
2 FEET TODAY, BOTH DIMINISHING A BIT TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WIND GUSTS COULD NEAR 25 KNOTS FOR A
TIME SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, OTHERWISE THE CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...MJL
LONG TERM...GORSE/MJL
AVIATION...MJL/RCM
MARINE...MJL/RCM
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