457
FXUS61 KPHI 031934
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
234 PM EST SAT JAN 3 2026
SYNOPSIS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY, WHILE ANOTHER ONE TRACKS TO OUR NORTH. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE INTO
TUESDAY. A WEAK SYSTEM WITH A WARM FRONT SLIDES TO OUR NORTH
MONDAY NIGHT, THEN A COLD FRONT CROSSES OUR AREA LATER
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY ARRIVES ON THURSDAY, THEN A
WARM FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
HIGH PRESSURE NOSING EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER DRY BUT CHILLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. A CLOUDY
DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS CONTINUES.
LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW MUCH OF OUR REGION IN THE SLOT OF
SINKING AIR BETWEEN THE TWO STORM SYSTEMS PASSING US TONIGHT, ONE TO
THE NORTH AND ONE TO THE SOUTH. GUIDANCE SHOWING LOWER POPS ACROSS
THE REGION WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN HALF AND A
25% CHANCE OR LESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER WHERE MORE GUIDANCE
PRODUCES SOME LIGHT SNOW WITH THE NORTHERN LOW PRESSURE. OVERALL A
HALF INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE POCONOS AND NORTHWESTERN NJ. LOWS
MOSTLY 20S, TEENS NW NJ AND THE POCONOS, BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS.
ANY SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT WILL END BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE TWO STORM SYSTEMS WILL BEGIN
TO DEPART WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THUS A STIFFER
NORTHWEST WIND SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS 15-20 MPH. SKIES WILL
BE SUNNIER WITH TEMPERATURES MARGINALLY WARMER, BUT STILL BELOW
CLIMO WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE MID/UPPER 30S WITH UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S NORTH AND WEST.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS AND LIFTS OUT OF THE REGION BY
SUNDAY NIGHT, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING OUT OF THE OHIO
VALLEY SHIFTING EAST OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
DIMINISH INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
EARLY, SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE AN INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. EXPECT ONE
MORE CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE TEENS TO MID
20S.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS THE INTERIOR
NORTHEAST. THIS WAVE WILL INCREASE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED
ISENTROPIC LIFT CAUSING AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS TO
CLIP THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (MAINLY NORTH OF TRENTON).
TIMING OF THIS PRIMARILY LOOKS TO OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
MONDAY, BEFORE WINDING DOWN BY MONDAY EVENING. PERHAPS UP TO A HALF-
INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS
NORTH OF THE I-78 CORRIDOR. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOW 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA (20S IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN). LOWS FOR MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER
THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DUE TO THE WAA REGIME BEGINNING AND MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.
FOR TUESDAY, ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL PASS ON BY,
ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO LIFT TO OUR NORTH ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE
THE BEGINNING OF A PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK WHERE HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL RANGING
FROM THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S (30S IN THE POCONOS AND NW NEW
JERSEY).
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
SUMMARY...A PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK INTO
THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES MAY RANGE AS MUCH AS 10-15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT SLIDES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS WEDNESDAY. UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING THEN DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS ON THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY AS A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS INTO THE
PLAINS. THIS TROUGH WILL EVENTUALLY BEGIN TO APPROACH OUR REGION ON
SATURDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH
ON WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY.
A WARM FRONT THEN ARRIVES ON FRIDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVING
LATE SATURDAY.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE SLIDES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. SOME GUIDANCE IS EVEN
INDICATING A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE VICINITY OF LONG
ISLAND LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARD MAINE AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS. AS THE
PARENT LOW PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH, A STRONGER WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO LIFT BY TO OUR NORTH ON TUESDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT, WHICH IS PROGGED TO CROSS THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA, A
CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE POCONO PLATEAU AND
NORTHWEST NJ AS COLD AIR REMAINS TRAPPED AT LOW-LEVELS UNDER THE
WARM NOSE ALOFT. ELSEWHERE, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING, SO ONLY EXPECT PLAIN RAIN OUTSIDE THE HIGHER
TERRAIN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY, THE COLD FRONT ITSELF
APPEARS TO BE LACKING MOISTURE, SO WILL CARRY JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR NORTHERN AREAS AND LOW
TO MID 50S FOR SOUTHERN AREAS.
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING OVERSPREADS THE
EASTERN CONUS WELL AHEAD OF A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OUT WEST. AS
THAT TROUGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS INTO THE PLAINS, HIGH PRESSURE OVER OUR
AREA ON THURSDAY SHIFTS OFFSHORE. SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR SHOULD BE
WITH THIS AND ALSO IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT, SO HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE, BUT WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY. AS WARM AIR ADVECTION RAMPS UP
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, A WARM FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASED CLOUDINESS ALONG WITH
SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN (~20-50%). THE MAIN SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE
MUCH SLOWER TO ARRIVE, SO DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT
GETS, FRIDAY MAY END UP BEING RATHER MILD ACROSS AT LEAST PARTS OF
THE REGION WITH HIGHS NEARING 60 DEGREES IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. A
SIMILAR STORY IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY, AS THE COLD FRONT ITSELF
ISN'T EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY, SO SATURDAY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE MILD ONCE AGAIN WHERE HIGHS MAY TOP OUT AS
MUCH AS 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. STILL WILL CARRY A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND UNTIL THE COLD FRONT CROSSES
THROUGH THE REGION.
AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TODAY...VFR. A WEST/NORTHWEST AROUND 5 TO 10 KT WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. CHANCE OF SUB-VFR WITH A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW,
MOST LIKELY AT KABE. FOR NOW WILL KEEP VCSH IN KABE AND KRDG TAFS
AND KEEP OUT OF REMAINDER. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SUNDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS 15 TO 20 KNOTS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KABE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF
SNOW SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS PROBABLE WITH
PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EXPECTED.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
THROUGH SUNDAY. NW WINDS TONIGHT 10 KTS OR LESS WITH SEAS AT 1
TO 2 FEET. NW WINDS GUST UP TO AROUND 20 KTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
EXPECTED.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...MJL
SHORT TERM...DESILVA
LONG TERM...DESILVA
AVIATION...DESILVA/MJL
MARINE...DESILVA/MJL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page