819
FXUS61 KPHI 041923
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
223 PM EST SUN JAN 4 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE INTO TUESDAY. A PAIR OF RELATIVELY WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDWEEK
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS FOR THURSDAY BEFORE A MUCH
STRONGER LOW AFFECTS THE REGION FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND NEXT
WEEKEND AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD WELL TO TO NORTH AND WEST. THE
SYSTEM'S WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY THE COLD
FRONT SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF
STRATOCU ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE,
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PERSIST ELSEWHERE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BECOME CENTERED OVER THE REGION TONIGHT,
LEADING TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS, LEADING TO
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. SOME SHELTERED LOCATIONS WITH
PROLONGED CLEAR SKIES COULD SEE TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW THE
FORECASTED LOW.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST. THIS WAVE WILL
INCREASE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC LIFT,
PRODUCING AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW, MAINLY ALONG THE I-78 CORRIDOR AND
POINTS NORTH. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIMITED TO A COATING OF
SNOW. THE COLD CONTINUES, ALTHOUGH NOT AS HARSH, WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY IN THE 30S (20S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN), HOWEVER
SOME LOW 40S IN DELMARVA TO SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH MOST AREAS SEEING HIGHS IN THE 40S BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON (UPPER
30S OVER THE POCONOS) AND PORTIONS OF DELMARVA GETTING INTO THE 50S!
THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AROUND BUT WE SHOULD BE
MOSTLY PRECIP FREE EXCEPT FOR LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN SOME LIGHT
RAIN COULD BEGIN MOVING INTO THE POCONOS AND NW NJ ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF LOWS TRACKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THE AFORMENTIONED LOW TRACKS BY TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THIS IS WHERE THE HEAVIER, STEADIER PRECIP WITH THE SYSTEM WILL
BE (TO OUR NORTH). WE STILL MAY BE AFFECTED WITH SOME RAIN WITH
POPS AROUND 50 PERCENT IN OUR FAR NORTH BUT ONLY AROUND 20-30
PERCENT OVER SE PA INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NJ WITH EVEN LOWER
POPS (LESS THAN 20 PERCENT) SOUTH OF HERE. IT WILL ALSO BE A
RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT WITH THE SW FLOW MEANING MUCH OF THE AREA
SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING, THUS A RAIN EVENT FOR JUST ABOUT
ALL. LOWS OVER THE POCONOS AND NW NJ LOOK TO GET DOWN INTO THE
LOW 30S BUT MOSTLY NOT UNTIL AFTER THE PRECIP ENDS. THAT SAID,
IT COULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN IN THE
POCONOS TUESDAY EVENING WHEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE
MOVING THROUGH.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM
WILL NOT BE AT ALL COLD AND WE'LL ALSO SEE SOME SUN FOR WEDNESDAY
WITH BREEZY W/NW WINDS. AS RESULT, EXPECT WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE
50S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION SOUTH OF THE I-78 CORRIDOR. NORTH
OF HERE, EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 40S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER THE EAST COAST FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING CONTINUING MILD WEATHER.
THURSDAY'S TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY AND ABOUT 10
DEGREES OR SO ABOVE AVERAGE. IT WILL ALSO BE DRY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF SUNSHINE LIKELY FOR THURSDAY.
IT STARTS TO GET MORE ACTIVE AGAIN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS WE LOOK TO BE AFFECTED BY A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM.
HOWEVER GIVEN THE TRACK WELL NORTH AND WEST OF US IT WILL BE AN ALL
RAIN EVENT. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY A DEEPENING LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL PUSH ANOTHER WARM FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA AND THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING SOME RAIN FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE
AREA FRIDAY. POPS ARE GENERALLY AROUND 60 PERCENT EXCEPT 40-50
PERCENT ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. ALSO, IT MAY NOT NECESSARILY
BE AN ALL DAY RAIN EVENT AS THINGS COULD DRY OUT BY LATER IN THE
DAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS TO OUR NORTH. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST WITH PORTIONS
OF DELMARVA GETTING NEAR 60! (HIGHS 45-50 IN THE POCONOS, NW
NJ).
THE LARGE AND DEEPENING LOW LIFTS NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING TEMPERATURES SATURDAY TO POTENTIALLY
AROUND 60 DEGREES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA
(AREAS ROUGHLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR). THIS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY S/SW WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR. EVENTUALLY,
HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM'S STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BRINGING
MORE SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES NEXT SUNDAY
SHOULD BE SEASONABLE.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
REST OF TODAY...VFR. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KT. A FEW GUSTS
UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE, THOUGH NOT EXPECTED TO BE FREQUENT ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN MOST OF THE TAFS. PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS FROM STRATOCU OVER
ABE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY...PREVAILING VFR. SOME LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE FOR A TIME NORTH
OF MOSTLY KABE TO KTTN. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE SUB VFR
WITH SOME RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT, MAINLY AT ABE.
THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...SUB VFR POSSIBLE AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH SOME
RAIN.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH
MONDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS TONIGHT, TURNING
SSW 15-20 KTS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS 1-2 FEET.
OUTLOOK...
CONDITIONS COULD GET CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
TUESDAY INTO INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN AGAIN BY LATE FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE, WINDS/SEAS STAYING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS
WEEK.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FITZSIMMONS
NEAR TERM...MJL
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/MJL
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/MJL
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