531
FXUS61 KPHI 050713
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
213 AM EST MON JAN 5 2026
SYNOPSIS
A PAIR OF RELATIVELY WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL PASS BY TO
OUR NORTH THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDWEEK PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
BRIEFLY RETURNS FOR THURSDAY BEFORE A MUCH STRONGER LOW AFFECTS
THE REGION FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AS IT
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD WELL TO TO NORTH AND WEST. THE SYSTEM'S
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY THE COLD FRONT
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGH CLOUDS DOMINATE EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM
FRONT ATTACHED TO LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH
LATER TODAY. WE'RE NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF INFLUENCE FOR THIS
SYSTEM, SO ODDS FAVOR LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP. HOWEVER, ENOUGH
GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP MOVING IN WITH THE WARM
FRONT LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS TO HAVE INCLUDED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DOWN TO AROUND PHILLY, WITH A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE POCONOS. REALLY THIS PROBABLY ISN'T
MORE THAN FLURRIES, WITH VERY LITTLE RISK OF ACCUMULATION.
WITH THE WARM FRONT PUSHING ACROSS, CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH
THE DAY AS WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY, BUT REMAINING LIGHT. HIGHS 20S
POCONOS, 30S LEHIGH VALLEY DOWN TO PHILLY METRO, 40S ALONG THE
COAST AND IN THE DELMARVA.
TONIGHT, DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL, BUT SO SHOULD CLOUDS AS WARM
ADVECTION CONTINUES ALOFT. WHILE TEMPS SHOULD DROP A BIT, EXPECT
A NIGHT NOT AS COLD AS THIS MORNING, WITH LOWS BELOW BUT CLOSER
TO FREEZING IN MOST ARES, PERHAPS STAYING ABOVE IN PARTS OF THE
DELMARVA AND ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
MOST AREAS SEEING HIGHS IN THE 40S BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON (UPPER
30S OVER THE POCONOS) AND PORTIONS OF DELMARVA GETTING INTO THE
50S! THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AROUND BUT WE SHOULD
BE MOSTLY PRECIP FREE EXCEPT FOR LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN
SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD BEGIN MOVING INTO THE POCONOS AND NW NJ
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF LOWS TRACKING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES.
THE AFORMENTIONED LOW TRACKS BY TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THIS IS WHERE THE HEAVIER, STEADIER PRECIP WITH THE SYSTEM WILL
BE (TO OUR NORTH). WE STILL MAY BE AFFECTED WITH SOME RAIN WITH
POPS AROUND 50 PERCENT IN OUR FAR NORTH BUT ONLY AROUND 20-30
PERCENT OVER SE PA INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NJ WITH EVEN LOWER
POPS (LESS THAN 20 PERCENT) SOUTH OF HERE. IT WILL ALSO BE A
RELATIVELY MILD NIGHT WITH THE SW FLOW MEANING MUCH OF THE AREA
SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING, THUS A RAIN EVENT FOR JUST ABOUT
ALL. LOWS OVER THE POCONOS AND NW NJ LOOK TO GET DOWN INTO THE
LOW 30S BUT MOSTLY NOT UNTIL AFTER THE PRECIP ENDS. THAT SAID,
IT COULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN IN THE
POCONOS TUESDAY EVENING WHEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE
MOVING THROUGH.
LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE REGION INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM WILL NOT BE AT ALL COLD AND WE'LL ALSO SEE SOME SUN FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH BREEZY W/NW WINDS. AS RESULT, EXPECT WIDESPREAD
HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION SOUTH OF THE
I-78 CORRIDOR. NORTH OF HERE, EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 40S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER THE EAST COAST
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY BRINGING CONTINUING MILD
WEATHER. THURSDAY'S TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY
AND ABOUT 10 DEGREES OR SO ABOVE AVERAGE. IT WILL ALSO BE DRY
WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE LIKELY FOR THURSDAY.
IT STARTS TO GET MORE ACTIVE AGAIN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND AS WE LOOK TO BE AFFECTED BY A STRONGER STORM
SYSTEM. HOWEVER GIVEN THE TRACK WELL NORTH AND WEST OF US IT
WILL BE AN ALL RAIN EVENT. THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY A
DEEPENING LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL PUSH
ANOTHER WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AND THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING
SOME RAIN FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA FRIDAY. POPS ARE
GENERALLY AROUND 60 PERCENT EXCEPT 40-50 PERCENT ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN. ALSO, IT MAY NOT NECESSARILY BE AN ALL DAY RAIN
EVENT AS THINGS COULD DRY OUT BY LATER IN THE DAY AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS TO OUR NORTH. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST WITH PORTIONS OF DELMARVA
GETTING NEAR 60! (HIGHS 45-50 IN THE POCONOS, NW NJ).
THE LARGE AND DEEPENING LOW LIFTS NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING TEMPERATURES SATURDAY TO
POTENTIALLY AROUND 60 DEGREES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA (AREAS ROUGHLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE URBAN
CORRIDOR). THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY S/SW WINDS IN THE
WARM SECTOR. EVENTUALLY, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM'S STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH BRINGING MORE SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF NEXT
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES NEXT SUNDAY SHOULD BE SEASONABLE.
AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THRU 12Z...VFR WITH MID-HIGH CLOUDS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TODAY...MAINLY VFR WITH BKN MID-LEVEL CEILINGS. A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE NORTHERN TERMINALS MID-MORNING TO MIDDAY,
BUT KEPT OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5-10 KT.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS BACK TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE SUB VFR
WITH SOME RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT, MAINLY AT ABE.
THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY...SUB VFR POSSIBLE AS A WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH
SOME RAIN.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KTS
TONIGHT, TURNING SSW 15-20 KT BY THIS AFTERNOON, THEN
DIMINISHING AGAIN TONIGHT. SEAS 1-2 FEET.
OUTLOOK...
CONDITIONS COULD GET CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS
TUESDAY INTO INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEN AGAIN BY LATE FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE, WINDS/SEAS STAYING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THIS WEEK.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...FITZSIMMONS
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/RCM
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/RCM
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