581
FXUS61 KPHI 050733
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
233 AM EST MON JAN 5 2026
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN AREA
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR NORTH TODAY, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ONE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS FOR
THURSDAY, THEN LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR NORTHWEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH ITS STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING OUR AREA LATER
SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
HIGH CLOUDS DOMINATE EARLY THIS MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THE WARM
FRONT ATTACHED TO LOW PRESSURE WHICH WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH
LATER TODAY. WE'RE NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF INFLUENCE FOR THIS
SYSTEM, SO ODDS FAVOR LITTLE IF ANY PRECIP. HOWEVER, ENOUGH
GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP MOVING IN WITH THE WARM
FRONT LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS TO HAVE INCLUDED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW DOWN TO AROUND PHILLY, WITH A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE POCONOS. REALLY THIS PROBABLY ISN'T
MORE THAN FLURRIES, WITH VERY LITTLE RISK OF ACCUMULATION.
WITH THE WARM FRONT PUSHING ACROSS, CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH
THE DAY AS WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY, BUT REMAINING LIGHT. HIGHS 20S
POCONOS, 30S LEHIGH VALLEY DOWN TO PHILLY METRO, 40S ALONG THE
COAST AND IN THE DELMARVA.
TONIGHT, DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL, BUT SO SHOULD CLOUDS AS WARM
ADVECTION CONTINUES ALOFT. WHILE TEMPS SHOULD DROP A BIT, EXPECT
A NIGHT NOT AS COLD AS THIS MORNING, WITH LOWS BELOW BUT CLOSER
TO FREEZING IN MOST AREAS, PERHAPS STAYING ABOVE IN PARTS OF
THE DELMARVA AND ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
A MILDER AIR MASS OVERSPREADS OUR ENTIRE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY AND
DRIVES LOW PRESSURE WHICH TRACKS TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. A ZONE OF INCREASED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ASSOCIATED
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PRODUCE AN AREA OF OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION.
THIS IS MOSTLY FOCUSED TO OUR NORTH. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND THEREFORE QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD
COVER IS ANTICIPATED. SOME OF THE LOW CLOUDS COULD BE EXTENSIVE WITH
EVEN SOME FOG POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. LINGERING
COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE MAY ALSO RESULT IN SOME POCKETS OF LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN FOR A TIME TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE POCONO PLATEAU TO
PARTS OF SUSSEX COUNTY, NJ. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH SOME LOW 50S IN DELMARVA AND UPPER 30S IN THE
POCONOS. IT WILL NOT BE AS COLD TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CLOUD COVER AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT IN
THE EVENING BEFORE HOLDING STEADY OR RISING SOME OVERNIGHT, WHICH
WILL ALL DEPEND ON THE MOVEMENT OF A WARM FRONT.
LOW PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS COLD FRONT IS NOT ALL
THAT STRONG, BUT IT WILL KNOCK THE TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME. A WEST-
NORTHWEST WIND WILL INCREASE FOR A TIME WEDNESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING
AT NIGHT. HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOW/MID 50S AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT,
THEN TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER THE EAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
BRINGING A CONTINUED MILD AIR MASS. THURSDAY'S TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE. IT WILL ALSO BE DRY DURING THE DAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT
OF SUNSHINE ON THURSDAY.
IT GETS MORE ACTIVE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS WE
LOOK TO BE AFFECTED BY A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM. HOWEVER GIVEN THE
TRACK WELL NORTH AND WEST OF US, IT WILL BE AN ALL RAIN EVENT.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, A DEEPENING LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE COUNTRY WILL PUSH ANOTHER WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AND
THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING SOME SHOWERS FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE AREA
FRIDAY. POPS ARE GENERALLY 40-60 PERCENT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR MOST WITH PORTIONS OF
DELMARVA GETTING TO NEAR 60 (HIGHS 45-50 IN THE POCONOS AND
NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY).
THE DEEPENING LOW LIFTS NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY BRINGING TEMPERATURES SATURDAY TO POTENTIALLY AROUND 60
DEGREES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA (AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR). THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRONGER
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR. THE SYSTEM'S STRONG
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER SATURDAY WITH SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE MUCH CLOSER TO AVERAGE.
AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THRU 12Z...VFR WITH MID-HIGH CLOUDS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TODAY...MAINLY VFR WITH BKN MID-LEVEL CEILINGS. A BRIEF PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE NORTHERN TERMINALS MID-MORNING TO MIDDAY,
BUT KEPT OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5-10 KT.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS BACK TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS PROBABLE
MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT (SOME FOG POSSIBLE), OTHERWISE VFR CEILINGS.
SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY...VFR CEILINGS CLEAR OUT.
FRIDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS TURNING SSW 15-20 KT BY THIS AFTERNOON,
THEN DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KT TONIGHT. SEAS 1-2 FEET.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THEN AGAIN LATER FRIDAY. OTHERWISE,
CONDITIONS STAYING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS/GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/RCM
MARINE...GORSE/RCM
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