406
FXUS61 KPHI 060759
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
259 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
SYNOPSIS
A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS WILL TRACK BY TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY, THEN
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR NORTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
ITS STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING OUR AREA LATER SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
TODAY WE'LL MOSTLY BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS, BUT THEY ARE SO CLOSE
AND WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL BE CONTINUING, SO EXPECT CLOUDS TO
DOMINATE. HAD ENOUGH CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING TO GET MOST
PLACES DOWN BELOW FREEZING, BUT WARMER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ELEVATE MOST AREAS ABOVE FREEZING AGAIN
DESPITE CLOUDS, IN FACT LIKELY 40S FOR AREAS NEAR/SOUTH OF I-78,
WITH 50S DOWN IN SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND THE EASTERN SHORE.
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH WARM FRONT THIS EVENING WITH LOW
CLOUDS, FOG, MIST AND DRIZZLE LIKELY OVERSPREADING MOST OF THE
REGION. TEMPS MAY DIP BACK BELOW FREEZING ACROSS NORTHERNMOST
ZONES (ESPECIALLY MONROE COUNTY AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SUSSEX
COUNTY NJ). FOR NOW HAVE HELD OFF ON A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
BUT ONE MAY BE NEEDED FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE
TEMPS STAY ABOVE FREEZING, BUT FOG ADVISORIES LOOK LIKELY
ESPECIALLY FROM PHILLY AREA NORTHWARD. WARM FRONT TRIES TO PUSH
NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT WHICH MAY BREAK THE FOG UP FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH TOWARD DAWN, BUT UNCERTAINTY ON THIS IS HIGH. TEMPS LIKELY
FAIRLY STEADY AND PERHAPS SLOWLY RISING OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
FOR WEDNESDAY, THE DEPARTED LOW WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST INTO
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO OUR WEST
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES
WILL RESULT IN A GUSTY W/NW WIND (GUSTS 20 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE).
IT WILL ALSO BE VERY MILD AS THE AIRMASS OVER US WILL BE FROM
THE PACIFIC AS OPPOSED TO THE ARCTIC. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 40S
NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S SOUTH.
THE AFORMENTIONED HIGH BUILDS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIR
WEATHER WITH CONTINUING MILD TEMPERATURES (TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR). THURSDAY SHOULD
ALSO FEATURE A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
THE WEATHER PATTERN GETS MORE ACTIVE AND MORE COMPLEX FOR THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. IN THE BIG PICTURE, THERE WILL BE A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD FROM
THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS TOWARDS THE EAST COAST OVER THE PERIOD FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THIS OCCURS, THERE WILL
BE MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES PIVOTING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ONE OR MORE AREAS OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING AND MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND THEN
ON TO EASTERN CANADA. EVENTUALLY THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY. THE MAIN AREA OF
UNCERTAINTY IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE ONE LARGE AND RELATIVELY
DEEP LOW OR SEVERAL WEAKER WAVES THAT MOVE NORTH ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE. EITHER WAY THOUGH, THIS LOOKS TO RESULT IN VERY
MILD BUT UNSETTLED WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.
IN TERMS OF THE DETAILS, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY BRINGING AN INITIAL ROUND OF SOME
SHOWERS THROUGH ALONG WITH VERY MILD TEMPERATURES. EXPECT HIGHS
GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE 50S TO LOW 60S. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
RAIN/SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH SATURDAY'S TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY TOPPING OUT
EVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY DOES
COME THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST LATER IN THE DAY SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY NIGHT AND THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY BLUSTERY AND COLDER
CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO MORE
SEASONABLE LEVELS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS...
THRU 12Z...PREVAILING VFR, EXPECT MAINLY MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE. MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG NEAR
KMIV/KILG/KACY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL.
TODAY...MAINLY VFR UNTIL VERY LATE WHEN CONDITIONS RAPIDLY
DECREASE WITH LOW STRATUS DECK AND/OR FOG AND LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE.
EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH
MID-AFTERNOON, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN FOG/LOW STRATUS LATE.
TONIGHT...IFR ALL TERMINALS, WITH LIFR TO VLIFR LIKELY, ESP
NORTHERN TERMINALS LIKE KABE, DUE TO LOW CIGS AND FOG ALONG WITH
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE UNTIL LATE, THEN WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH TOWARD DAWN WITH WINDS BECOMING S TO SW 5-10
KT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OF 40 KT ALSO LIKELY. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE OVERALL, LOW CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY,
OTHERWISE VFR CEILINGS.
THURSDAY...VFR CEILINGS CLEAR OUT.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH
SHOWERS.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS SSE 5-10 KT TODAY, INCREASING TO 10-15 KT TONIGHT.
SEAS 1-2 FEET TODAY, INCREASING TO 3-4 FEET TONIGHT. PATCHY
DENSE MARINE FOG POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY, THEN AGAIN FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ450>452.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ453>455.
SYNOPSIS...GUZZO/RCM
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...FITZSIMMONS
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/RCM
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/RCM
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