073
FXUS61 KPHI 060808
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
308 AM EST TUE JAN 6 2026
SYNOPSIS
A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS WILL TRACK BY TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THURSDAY, THEN
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS TO OUR NORTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
ITS STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING OUR AREA LATER SATURDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
TODAY WE'LL MOSTLY BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS, BUT THEY ARE SO CLOSE
AND WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL BE CONTINUING, SO EXPECT CLOUDS TO
DOMINATE. HAD ENOUGH CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING TO GET MOST
PLACES DOWN BELOW FREEZING, BUT WARMER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ELEVATE MOST AREAS ABOVE FREEZING AGAIN
DESPITE CLOUDS, IN FACT LIKELY 40S FOR AREAS NEAR/SOUTH OF I-78,
WITH 50S DOWN IN SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND THE EASTERN SHORE.
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES WITH WARM FRONT THIS EVENING WITH LOW
CLOUDS, FOG, MIST AND DRIZZLE LIKELY OVERSPREADING MOST OF THE
REGION. TEMPS MAY DIP BACK BELOW FREEZING ACROSS NORTHERNMOST
ZONES (ESPECIALLY MONROE COUNTY AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SUSSEX
COUNTY NJ). FOR NOW HAVE HELD OFF ON A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
BUT ONE MAY BE NEEDED FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE
TEMPS STAY ABOVE FREEZING, BUT FOG ADVISORIES LOOK LIKELY
ESPECIALLY FROM PHILLY AREA NORTHWARD. WARM FRONT TRIES TO PUSH
NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT WHICH MAY BREAK THE FOG UP FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH TOWARD DAWN, BUT UNCERTAINTY ON THIS IS HIGH. TEMPS LIKELY
FAIRLY STEADY AND PERHAPS SLOWLY RISING OVERNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
WE TRANSITION TOWARDS MORE FAIR WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD AS OUR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL TAPER OFF AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN AND CLOUDS
DECREASE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING LOW AND THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING IN WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN WINDS
WEDNESDAY. WIND GUSTS WILL RANGE FROM 20-30 MPH WITH PERHAPS
UPWARDS OF 35 MPH IN THE POCONOS. THESE WINDS WILL DECREASE BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LESSENS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY ARE IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS THE
AREA.
OUR HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SHIFTS
OFFSHORE THURSDAY. THIS KEEPS US DRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A MOSTLY
CLEAR SKY. LOWS ARE MAINLY IN THE 30S. BY THURSDAY, WE START TO SEE
MORE CLOUDS FILTER IN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTS. HIGHS ON THURSDAY ARE ONCE AGAIN
MILD WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE WEATHER PATTERN GETS MORE ACTIVE AND COMPLEX FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE, THERE WILL BE A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS TOWARDS THE EAST COAST DURING THE TIME PERIOD OF
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THIS OCCURS, THERE WILL
BE MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES PIVOTING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.
THIS WILL LEAD TO ONE OR MORE AREAS OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING AND MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND THEN
EASTERN CANADA. EVENTUALLY THIS WILL HELP PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN AREA OF UNCERTAINTY IS
WHETHER THERE WILL BE ONE LARGE AND RELATIVELY DEEP LOW OR
SEVERAL WEAKER WAVES THAT MOVE NORTH ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
EITHER WAY, THIS LOOKS TO RESULT IN VERY MILD BUT UNSETTLED
WEATHER FRIDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
IN TERMS OF THE DETAILS, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE AREA FRIDAY BRINGING AN INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH VERY
MILD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF RAIN/SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY'S TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY BLUSTERY AND COLDER CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WE TREND DRIER
AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN.
AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS...
THRU 12Z...PREVAILING VFR, EXPECT MAINLY MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.
WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE. MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG NEAR
KMIV/KILG/KACY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE OVERALL.
TODAY...MAINLY VFR UNTIL VERY LATE WHEN CONDITIONS RAPIDLY
DECREASE WITH LOW STRATUS DECK AND/OR FOG AND LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE.
EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH
MID-AFTERNOON, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN FOG/LOW STRATUS LATE.
TONIGHT...IFR ALL TERMINALS, WITH LIFR TO VLIFR LIKELY, ESP
NORTHERN TERMINALS LIKE KABE, DUE TO LOW CIGS AND FOG ALONG WITH
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. WINDS LIGHT/VARIABLE UNTIL LATE, THEN WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH TOWARD DAWN WITH WINDS BECOMING S TO SW 5-10
KT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR OF 40 KT ALSO LIKELY. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE OVERALL, LOW CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY,
OTHERWISE VFR CEILINGS. INCREASING WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20-25 KT. WINDS DECREASE IN THE EVENING.
THURSDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH SHOWERS.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS SSE 5-10 KT TODAY, INCREASING TO 10-15 KT TONIGHT.
SEAS 1-2 FEET TODAY, INCREASING TO 3-4 FEET TONIGHT. PATCHY
DENSE MARINE FOG POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FOR SEAS OF 4-6 FEET AND WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 10 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ450>452.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ453>455.
SYNOPSIS...GUZZO/RCM
NEAR TERM...RCM
SHORT TERM...GUZZO
LONG TERM...FITZSIMMONS/GUZZO
AVIATION...GUZZO/RCM
MARINE...GUZZO/RCM
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