220
FXUS61 KPHI 222324
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
624 PM EST THU JAN 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO.
WHILE MODELS ARE TRENDING NORTH WITH THE WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM,
RESULTING IN MORE OF A WINTRY MIX, SIGNIFICANT SNOW IMPACTS ARE
STILL EXPECTED. A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SEVERAL COLD FRONTS WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE TRANSITION FROM THE
WARMTH TO AN ARCTIC AIRMASS BRINGING DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND
CHILLS TO ALL OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE START
OF THE WEEKEND.
2. LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE MONDAY MORNING WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS,
HOWEVER, A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN, SLEET, AND EVEN PLAIN
RAIN MAY RESULT IN LOWER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAN WOULD OTHERWISE
BE EXPECTED.
3. ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES NOT RISING ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL POSSIBLY NEXT
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SEVERAL COLD FRONTS WILL BE TRACKING THROUGH
THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE TRANSITION FROM
THE WARMTH TO AN ARCTIC AIRMASS BRINGING DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND
CHILLS TO ALL OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE START
OF THE WEEKEND.
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ARE
OCCURING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARMTH WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER, AS WE'LL BE TRANSITIONING TO AN ARCTIC
AIRMASS OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE INITIAL COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER EAST-CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND WILL TRACK
EAST ACROSS THE MID- ATLANTIC AND OFF THE COAST BY THIS EVENING.
WIND GUSTS UP TO 30-40 MPH HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA, BUT WILL DIMINISH INTO TONIGHT AS THE FRONT DEPARTS.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO UPPER 20S UNDER PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE FOR ONE MORE DAY;
TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S NORTH AND WEST TO LOW TO MID
40S SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WILL BE THE LAST OF 'NORMAL'
TEMPERATURES FOR QUITE A WHILE AS A POTENT SECONDARY ARCTIC
FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION POURS INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE
850 MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM -15C TO -25C. THIS
EQUATES TO SURFACE TEMPS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS (OR
BELOW ZERO ON THE POCONO PLATEAU). NOT ONLY WILL THE
TEMPERATURES BE FALLING RAPIDLY, BUT WINDS WILL PICK UP IN WAKE
OF THE SECONDARY FRONT; DRIVEN BY A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN A VERY STRONG 1044 MB ARCTIC HIGH AND DEPARTING LOW.
THIS COMBINATION OF SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES AND WIND GUSTS
UPWARDS OF 25-35 MPH WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO
AREAWIDE. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE ISSUED A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. WHERE WINDS MAY BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AND TEMPS WILL BE
COLDER, WIND CHILLS MAY GET AS LOW AS -20F ON THE POCONO
PLATEAU. POSSIBLE UPGRADES TO AN EXTREME COLD WARNING CANNOT BE
RULED OUT FOR CARBON AND MONROE COUNTIES IN PA.
WHILE THE PEAK OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT OCCURS FRIDAY NIGHT, THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS REMAINS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH
STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
HIGH TEMPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S BUT FORTUNATELY
WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE THE LAST DAY TO PREPARE FOR ANY STORM
PREPARATIONS, SO TAKE ANY NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS AS NEEDED TO
STAY WARM IF OUTDOORS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS, HOWEVER, A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN, SLEET,
AND EVEN PLAIN RAIN MAY RESULT IN LOWER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAN
WOULD OTHERWISE BE EXPECTED.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY SUNDAY, FINALLY DEPARTING SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO EXIT OUT OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS
AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE AND DEVELOP OVER
THE GULF COAST STATES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
SURFACE LOW THEN TAKES A RUN TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE AND OUT TO SEA
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS ON A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT
OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE TEENS, ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE
SNOW AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR QUICKLY. WITH SNOW RATIOS
FROM 15-20:1, CAN EXPECT A QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER NORTHERN
ZONES, 3 TO 6 INCHES FROM AROUND PHILADELPHIA, THROUGH SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY, AND INTO NORTHERN DELMARVA, AND 5 TO 7 INCHES ACROSS
SOUTHERN DELMARVA. WHAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED IS IF SNOW
RATIOS LOWER LATE AT NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN DELMARVA AS WARMER
AIR LIFTS TO THE NORTH.
FROM THERE, SNOW CONTINUES TO RAMP UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY
SUNDAY. 12Z MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND TO THE NORTH, AND AS
A RESULT, MORE IN THE WAY OF WARMER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE
REGION ALOFT. THE 12Z/22 ECMWF LOOKS TO BE CENTERED OVER THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA BY SUNDAY EVENING, WHILE THE 12Z/22 GFS HAS
THE CENTER OF THE LOW SOME 50-100 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE ECMWF.
THE 12Z NAM NOW GOES OUT UNTIL 00Z MONDAY AND SPLITS THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS. THE 12Z/22 CMC IS EVEN A
BIT MORE TO THE NORTHEAST THAN THE ECMWF. ULTIMATELY, THIS
RESULTS IN A WARMER SOLUTION, AND CAN EXPECT A WINTRY MIX OF
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WELL INTO SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA, MAINLY
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR, AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY, WHILE RAIN
AND SNOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NEW JERSEY COAST AND SOUTHERN
DELAWARE. FOR THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND FAR NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY,
PRECIPITATION REMAINS ALL SNOW. CANNOT RULE OUT A PERIOD OF
PLAIN RAIN FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY COAST AND
SOUTHERN DELAWARE COAST.
THIS WINTRY MIX CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE
CHANGING BACK TO ALL SNOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW THEN CONTINUES
INTO MONDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING.
OVERALL, SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 12 TO 15
INCHES FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA, WITH SLIGHTLY LESS IN
SOUTHERN DELMARVA. WHILE LIQUID QPF WILL BE LOWER IN THE
NORTHERN ZONES, THE HIGHER SNOW RATIOS WILL RESULT IN HIGHER
SNOW AMOUNTS IN THOSE AREAS. THE MAIN ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE HOW
MUCH MIXING WILL OCCUR AND HOW THAT WILL AFFECT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. WHILE THE OVERALL AVERAGE LOOKS TO BE 12 TO 15
INCHES, IT IS ALSO QUITE POSSIBLE FOR ACCUMULATIONS TO BE LESS,
GENERALLY ON THE ORDER OF 8 TO 12 INCHES FROM AROUND
PHILADELPHIA SOUTH, WITH EVEN LESS IN SOUTHERN DELMARVA AND
ALONG THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY COAST.
THE WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE MONDAY
MORNING/EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 3...ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA NEXT WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES NOT RISING ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL POSSIBLY NEXT
WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH ON MONDAY, AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY COLD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
20S TO MAYBE LOW 30S IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A STRONG COLD FRONT THEN PASSES THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AND BITTERLY COLD ARCTIC AIR SPREADS INTO THE REGION WITH
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS MONDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS IN THE TEENS
ON TUESDAY. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES AND EVEN COLD AIR WARNINGS
MAY BE NEEDED DUE TO LOW WIND CHILLS AS STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS WILL THEN BE ONLY SLIGHTLY
WARMER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
DUE TO THIS PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES, DO
NOT EXPECT ANY HELP FROM MOTHER NATURE WITH MELTING THE NEW
SNOWPACK. IN FACT, TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL
NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS...
TONIGHT...VFR WITH MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS. WESTERLY WINDS AROUND
5-10 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
FRIDAY...VFR WITH MAINLY MID-HIGH CLOUDS. WESTERLY WINDS AROUND
5- 10 KT EARLY START TO SHIFT TO WEST-NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO
10-20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS UP
TO 20-30 KT POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR INITIALLY, THEN SUB-VFR IN SN.
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SUB-VFR IN SN, WITH SN/PL/FZRA
LIKELY FOR ALL BUT KRDG/KABE. MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANGES BACK
TO SN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY...VFR.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FROM SANDY HOOK TO
LITTLE EGG INLET BEGINNING AT 10 AM FRIDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY HAVE BEEN ISSUED BEGINNING AT 4 PM ON FRIDAY.
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10-20 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH SEAS AROUND 3-4 FEET. WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH ON FRIDAY FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GUST UP TO 25-30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
SEAS OF 3-5 FEET. FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF SCA
CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY START TO DIMINISH ON
SATURDAY, WHERE EXTENSIONS OF THE SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
SATURDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY.
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...STRONG SCA CONDITIONS WITH GALE
FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE. VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN SN AND RA.
MONDAY...IMPROVING VSBYS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SCA CONDITIONS
CONTINUE.
MONDAY NIGHT...GALES LIKELY ON ALL WATERS. FREEZING SPRAY
POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH A CHANCE FOR FREEZING
SPRAY.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 10 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR PAZ070-071.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PAZ070-071-101-102-104.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR PAZ060>062-101>106.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-103-105-106.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 10 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR NJZ012>014-016>027.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NJZ016>019-021>025-027.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR NJZ001-007>010-015.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>015-020-026.
DE...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 10 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR DEZ001>004.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO 10 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR MDZ012-015-019-020.
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
ANZ430-431-452>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY
FOR ANZ450-451.
DISCUSSION...DESILVA/MPS
AVIATION...DESILVA/GUZZO/MPS
MARINE...DESILVA/MPS
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