092
FXUS61 KPHI 240253
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
953 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE DANGEROUS COLD TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.
A WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE SNOWFALL TOTALS HAVE DECREASED FOR
MOST OF THE AREA, ICE TOTALS HAVE INCREASED. THIS REMAINS A
SIGNIFICANT EVENT.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DANGEROUS COLD TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH WIND CHILLS BELOW
ZERO.
2. LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND ICE IMPACTS.
3. ARCTIC AIR REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DANGEROUS COLD TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH WIND
CHILLS BELOW ZERO.
AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL SETTLE ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE INITIAL STAGES OF THIS HAS ALREADY OCCURRED WITH
MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS ADVECTING IN, THEN AS STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY THE TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE TONIGHT.
THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DROP TO -15C (MAINLY SOUTH) TO
-25C (OVER THE POCONOS). IN ADDITION TO THE MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES, A NOTABLE WIND WILL BE WITH US THROUGH MOST IF NOT
ALL OF TONIGHT MAKING FOR DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES. A STRONG
ARCTIC HIGH MOVING CLOSER WITH LOW PRESSURE DEPARTING OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL RESULT IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE WILL THEN
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
THE COMBINATION OF SINGLE DIGIT (OR EVEN BELOW ZERO IN THE
POCONOS) TEMPERATURES AND A BREEZE WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS
BELOW ZERO, POTENTIALLY GETTING AS LOW AS -10F FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION BEING THE POCONOS WHERE TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR BELOW ZERO AND GUSTY WINDS RESULT IN WIND CHILLS NEAR
-20F. GIVEN THIS, AN EXTREME COLD WARNING CONTINUES FOR CARBON
AND MONROE COUNTIES, AND A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT ELSEWHERE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
WITH SUCH DEEP COLD ACROSS THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE, IT WILL BE BITTERLY COLD ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
GETTING INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. AREAS IN THE
POCONOS MAY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE SINGLE DIGITS. THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH OF A BREEZE AS WELL THAT WILL ADD TO THE FRIGID
CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...LOW PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND ICE
IMPACTS.
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF COAST STATES CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE
AND DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AND THEN BEGINS TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS OUT AHEAD OF THIS LOW,
AND OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW
STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY LOW LOOKS TO FORM OVER THE
SOUTHEAST, AND THAT LOW LIFTS ALONG THE COAST ON SUNDAY BEFORE
DEPARTING SUNDAY NIGHT. THE PRIMARY LOW FOLLOWS BEHIND LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE OVER EASTERN CANADA, AND ARCTIC AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE TEENS AND THE COLUMN WELL BELOW
FREEZING, PRECIP STARTS OUT AS SNOW, AND SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH, SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
WITH LIQUID-SNOW RATIOS 15-20:1, CAN EXPECT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOW FOR THE SOUTHERN POCONOS, LEHIGH VALLEY, AND NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY AND 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW FOR THE DELAWARE VALLEY,
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY, AND DELMARVA WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS
IN SOUTHERN DELMARVA BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE TREND OF TAKING THE LOW ON MORE
OF A NORTHERN TRACK, ALLOWING FOR WARM AIR ALOFT TO SPREAD INTO
MOST OF THE AREA. THIS ALLOWS SNOW TO MIX WITH AND CHANGE TO
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FOR A GOOD SWATH OF THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA, INCLUDING MOST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR,
INCLUDING PHILADELPHIA AND SURROUNDING SUBURBS. FOR SOUTHERN
DELMARVA AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST AND PORTIONS OF THE JERSEY SHORE,
PRECIPITATION MAY BECOME PLAIN RAIN FOR A BRIEF PERIOD.
THIS MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENTUALLY BECOMES PLAIN SNOW AS IT
TAPERS OFF LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. WHILE AN
ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
MINIMAL FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS.
IN TOTALS, SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 12 TO 18 INCHES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN POCONOS, LEHIGH VALLEY, AND NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY WITH LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE. FOR A LARGE
SWATH OF THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA, INCLUDING THE
DELAWARE VALLEY, PHILADELPHIA, AND MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY,
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 8 TO 12 INCHES WITH 1/4 TO 1/3
INCH OF ICE. FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND
SOUTHERN DELMARVA, SNOW TOTALS WILL BE 6 TO 10 INCHES WITH LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE.
KEY MESSAGE 3...ARCTIC AIR REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH NEXT WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING INTO FRIDAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BE IN CONTROL FOR THE REST OF
NEXT WEEK, WITH MONDAY POSSIBLY BEING THE WARMEST DAY, THAT TERM
IS USED LOOSELY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. A
STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, AND THEN LOWS
WILL CRASH INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. WITH STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING
OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, WIDESPREAD WIND
CHILLS WILL BE AS LOW AS 10 BELOW, WITH WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS
20 BELOW IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOS. COLD WEATHER ADVISORIES AND
WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND
LOW 20S TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS NOT MUCH WARMER THAN THAT THROUGH
FRIDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. MONDAY NIGHT WILL
LIKELY NOT BE THE ONLY NIGHT NEXT WEEK WHEN COLD WEATHER
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED.
AS A RESULT OF THIS PROLONGED COLD, DO NOT EXPECT THE NEW
SNOWPACK TO MELT MUCH.
AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS...
TONIGHT...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS 25-30
KNOTS, DIMINISHING SOME MAINLY AFTER 06Z. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SATURDAY...VFR. NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KNOTS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...IFR AND LOWER IN SN.
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...IFR AND LOWER IN SN, MIXING WITH
AND CHANGING TO PL AND FZRA SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL BUT
KRDG/KABE, BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY...LINGERING SUB-VFR CONDS IN SN IN THE MORNING, THEN
IMPROVING CONDS IN THE AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOES INTO SATURDAY MORNING (FOR THE OCEAN)
AS WINDS GUST TO AROUND 30 KNOTS OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST
WITH SEAS 3 TO 6 FEET. OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS TO 35-40
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH VERY COLD AIR MOVING OVER THE RELATIVELY MILDER OCEAN
WATERS COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS AND CHOPPY SEAS, LIGHT TO
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THEREFORE, A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH NE WINDS 15 TO 20
KT WITH 25 TO 30 KT GUSTS. VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW.
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...GALES EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY, THEN SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT. A GALE WATCH
IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR SUNDAY AND A SCA WILL BE NEEDED SUNDAY
NIGHT. VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW, SLEET, FREEZING RAIN, AND
POSSIBLY EVEN PLAIN RAIN SUNDAY BEFORE CHANGING BACK TO SNOW
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY DURING THE
DAY, THEN GALES POSSIBLE AT NIGHT. VSBY RESTRICTIONS IMPROVE
THROUGH THE DAY. FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.
TUESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS AND FREEZING SPRAY POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
CLIMATE
AN IMPACTFUL WINTER STORM BRINGING SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TO THE AREA IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. HERE ARE THE
1-DAY DAILY RECORD TOTALS FOR JANUARY 25TH FROM OUR SNOW
OBSERVING SITES. SOME OF THESE COULD BE CHALLENGED.
JANUARY 25TH DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS
ALLENTOWN (ABE) 10.4" (1988)
AC AIRPORT (ACY) 8.3" (2000)
PHILADELPHIA (PHL) 8.5" (2000)
READING (RDG) 9.0" (1905)
TRENTON (TTN) 14.0" (1905)
WILMINGTON (ILG) 10.0" (2000)
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ070-071.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR
PAZ060-070-071-101>106.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ060>062-
101>106.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR
PAZ054-055-061-062.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR PAZ054-055.
NJ...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NJZ012>014-
016>027.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR
NJZ008>010-012>021-026-027.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
NJZ022>025.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR NJZ001-
007>010-015.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR
NJZ001-007.
DE...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR DEZ001>004.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR
DEZ001-002.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
DEZ003-004.
MD...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR MDZ012-015-
019-020.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM SATURDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR
MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ430-431.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ450-451.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ452>455.
DISCUSSION...GORSE/MPS
AVIATION...GORSE/GUZZO/MPS
MARINE...GORSE/GUZZO/MPS
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