447
FXUS61 KPHI 260142
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
842 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR SUSSEX COUNTY,
DE AND CAPE MAY COUNTY, NJ. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN ABOVE
FREEZING IN THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A MAJOR WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO IMPACT OUR ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT.
2. ARCTIC AIR REMAINS IN PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A MAJOR WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO IMPACT OUR
ENTIRE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
AS OF 700 PM, AREAS OF HEAVY SLEET AND SOME SNOW CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE REGION THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE REMAINING SNOWFALL
IS ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND POINTS NORTH. THE REST OF THE
REGION IS NOW PREDOMINANTLY EXPERIENCING HEAVY SLEET ON TOP OF
THE SNOW THAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN. SOME FREEZING RAIN REMAINS A
POSSIBILITY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT, WITH ICE ACCRETION OF
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO STILL POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES
HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND PORTIONS
OF THE NJ COASTAL PLAIN. HOWEVER, IT SHOULD BE STRESSED THAT
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BACK BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT,
AND ANY UNTREATED ROADS THAT REMAIN WET ARE EXPECTED TO
EXPERIENCE REFREEZING. THE DISCUSSION BELOW OTHERWISE REMAINS ON
TRACK.
THE MAIN PARENT LOW OF THIS IMPACTFUL SYSTEM REMAINS ACROSS THE
BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN VIRGINIA AND EASTERN KENTUCKY
WHILE A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS COASTAL NORTH
CAROLINA. THIS COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PROLONGING THE
WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS ACROSS THE GREATER DELAWARE VALLEY. AS
PREVIOUSLY STATED, PURE SNOWFALL IS MOSTLY CONFINED NOW ALONG
THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND POINTS NORTH WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION
IS SEEING WIDESPREAD SLEET WITH SOME MIXING. THE CURRENT SETUP
WILL BE A TUG OF WAR BETWEEN THE TWO LOWS. THE STACKED PARENT
LOW ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS CONTINUES TO BRING STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT, RESULTING IN A STRONG WARM NOSE IN THE
700-850MB LAYER. AT THE SAME TIME, THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
OFF OF COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA WILL TEAM UP WITH AN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH TO BRING IN A COLD NORTHEAST WIND A
THE SURFACE. THE RESULTING ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES WILL BE HIGHLY
FAVORABLE FOR PERSISTENT SLEET THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN AS WELL. WHILE HIGH RES
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INSISTENT ON PURE RAIN PENETRATING INLAND
NORTH AND WEST TOWARDS THE I-95 CORRIDOR, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS HAVE SHOWN TEMPERATURES RUNNING
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW EVEN THE COLDEST FORECAST GUIDANCE. AS A
RESULT, IT IS FAIR TO CONCLUDE SURFACE TEMPERATURE WILL NOT CEDE
GROUND AS EASILY AS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. AT THE SAME TIME, IT IS
EVIDENT THAT GUIDANCE HAS FORECASTED THE WARM NOSE AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT QUITE WELL. HENCE THE EMPHASIS ON OUR
AFOREMENTIONED PTYPE TUG OF WAR.
AS OF NOW, THE FORECAST CALLS FOR MUCH OF THE PURE RAIN TO BE
CONFINED TO SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY
AND NOT REACHING THE I-95 CORRIDOR. SLEET IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
PREDOMINANT PTYPE THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE WARM NOSE WEDGING IN MORE INTENSELY LATER THIS EVENING
AND INTO TONIGHT. THIS WOULD GIVE WAY TO BETTER AND MELTING
ALOFT, BUT SHOULD SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW FREEZING AS
CURRENTLY FORECAST, WE COULD VERY WELL SEE A MORE PREDOMINANT
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND AREAS JUST
SOUTH AND EAST. ALL THIS SAID, THIS FORECAST BETWEEN SLEET VS
FREEZING RAIN IS RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE. REGARDLESS OF WHICH
PTYPE WE SEE, MAJOR IMPACTS FROM WINTRY PRECIP WILL CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT.
IN TERMS OF TOTALS, AN ADDITIONAL 4-8 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR AND POINTS NORTH WITH
MAINLY 1-4 INCHES OF SLEET FALLING ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND
NORTH TOWARDS I-80. FLAT ICE ACCRETION OF 0.10-0.25 INCHES FROM
FREEZING RAIN IS FORECAST TO FALL ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND
NEARBY AREAS SOUTH AND EAST.
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOME DRIZZLE OR EVEN
FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE HAS HINTED
AT SOME LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE ENDING. THIS IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE, BUT
IF IT WERE TO OCCUR ANY ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. LOWS COME MONDAY MORNING WILL BE VERY COLD, IN THE
LOW TEENS TO MID 20S ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IN MIND, TRAVEL
COULD REMAIN HAZARDOUS AS ANYTHING ON THE ROADS AND SIDEWALKS
WILL REMAIN FROZEN OR REFREEZE TONIGHT, RESULTING IN A HARD
SLUSH OR BLACK ICE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ARCTIC AIR REMAINS IN PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.
A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS THROUGH THE THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND, AND SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN IT WILL BRING SEVERAL REINFORCING
SHOTS OF COLD ARCTIC AIR TO THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE, STRONG
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WHEREAS A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS ARE ALSO
PROGGED TO TRACK THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL.
IN WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW COASTAL STORM AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH, THE RETURN OF VERY COLD AIR IS
ANTICIPATED TO BEGIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD
FRONT IS THEN PROJECTED TO CROSS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ALL IN ALL, PERIODS OF WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH GUSTS UP TO
30-35 MPH AT TIMES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY REMAIN IN THE
TEENS AND 20S WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO EVEN SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW ZERO THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF THE WEEK.
AS A RESULT, WIND CHILLS WILL MAINLY RANGE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO TEENS DURING THE DAY. MORE IMPORTANTLY AT NIGHT, WIND CHILLS
WILL BECOME DANGEROUSLY COLD GENERALLY RANGING BETWEEN 0 TO -10
DEGREES IN MOST AREAS. FOR THE AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF I-95 AND
ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE SNOW PACK IS DEEPER,
WIND CHILLS MAY RANGE BETWEEN -10 TO -25 DEGREES AT TIMES.
OVERALL, THIS WILL BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF COLD WEATHER, WHERE
COLD WEATHER HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE WARRANTED IN THE COMING
DAYS.
WITH SUCH A LONG DURATION OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPS, DO NOT
EXPECT THE NEW SNOW PACK TO MELT MUCH. ASIDE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SNOW ON THURSDAY WITH LOW DEVELOPING OFFSHORE, DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED.
AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS...
TONIGHT...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS INITIALLY WILL TREND TOWARDS ALL
IFR BY 03-05Z. AREAS OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE MAY END
AS SOME LIGHT SNOW AFTER 03Z WITH SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
REMAINING POSSIBLE. NORTH- NORTHEAST WIND 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS
NEAR 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE, FAVORING A NORTHWEST DIRECTION,
AT AROUND 5 KT. LOW CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY...MVFR CEILINGS INITIALLY, WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT TOWARDS
VFR AFTER 17-20Z. WEST- NORTHWEST WIND INCREASING TO 15-20
KT WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED THRU THE
PERIOD.
MARINE
FOR ALL NJ AND DE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AS WELL AS THE LOWER
DELAWARE BAY, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 1 PM
MONDAY. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM 1 PM MONDAY THROUGH 4
AM TUESDAY FOR ALL NJ AND DE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AS WELL AS
THE DELAWARE BAY.
WINDS SUBSIDE BRIEFLY TONIGHT. WINDS REMAIN NEAR 15 KT WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KT AND BACK FROM THE NE TO WNW OVERNIGHT. WNW
WINDS SURGE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON, BRINGING GUSTS BACK UP TO
GALE- FORCE. SEAS WILL BE 7-10 FEET TONIGHT AND ONLY DIMINISH
TO 5-7 FEET MONDAY.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...GALES POSSIBLE ALL WATERS IN THE EVENING,
DIMINISHING LATE TO SCA LEVEL GUSTS. SEAS OF 6-9 FEET. FREEZING
SPRAY POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS PROBABLE. WIND
GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT AND SEAS OF 3-6 FEET. FREEZING SPRAY
POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS EARLY
WEDNESDAY, THEN NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED. WINDS UP TO 25 KTS
EARLY, THEN 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS OF 2-4 FEET.
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS PROBABLE
THURSDAY, POSSIBLY REACHING GALES THURSDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS UP
TO 25-30 KT DURING THE DAY, INCREASING UP TO 35 KTS AT NIGHT
WITH SEAS OF 2-4 FEET, INCREASING TO 3-6 FEET.
FRIDAY...SCA CONDITIONS PROBABLE. WNW GUSTING TO 25 KTS AND SEAS
3-5 FEET.
CLIMATE
AN IMPACTFUL WINTER STORM BRINGING SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TO THE AREA IS EXPECTED TODAY. HERE ARE THE 1-DAY
DAILY RECORD TOTALS FOR TODAY FROM OUR SNOW OBSERVING SITES.
SOME OF THESE COULD BE CHALLENGED.
TODAY'S DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS
ALLENTOWN (ABE) 10.4" (1988)
AC AIRPORT (ACY) 8.3" (2000)
PHILADELPHIA (PHL) 8.5" (2000)
READING (RDG) 9.0" (1905)
TRENTON (TTN) 14.0" (1905)
WILMINGTON (ILG) 10.0" (2000)
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010-
012-015>019-021.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ013-014-020-
022-025>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR DEZ001-002.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR MDZ012-015-019-
020.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ430-431-450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.
DISCUSSION...COOPER/RCM
AVIATION...COOPER/GORSE/MJL
MARINE...COOPER/MJL
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