166
FXUS61 KPHI 260624
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
124 AM EST MON JAN 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
KEY MESSAGES
1. THE MAJOR WINTER STORM IS WINDING DOWN.
2. ARCTIC AIR REMAINS IN PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...THE MAJOR WINTER STORM IS ENDING ACROSS THE
AREA.
LOW PRESSURE IS JUST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND JUST ABOUT ALL OF
THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED. THERE IS A FEW PATCHES
OF FOG AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE (OR FREEZING DRIZZLE).
THIS WILL END SHORTLY. DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING AS GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP. THERE ARE
STILL ICY AREAS AND CAUTION FOR TRAVEL IS STILL ADVISED.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ARCTIC AIR REMAINS IN PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.
A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS THROUGH THE THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND, AND SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN IT WILL BRING SEVERAL REINFORCING
SHOTS OF COLD ARCTIC AIR TO THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE, STRONG
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WHEREAS A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS ARE ALSO
PROGGED TO TRACK THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL.
IN WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW COASTAL STORM AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH, THE RETURN OF VERY COLD AIR IS ANTICIPATED
TO BEGIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT IS
THEN PROJECTED TO CROSS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ALL IN ALL, PERIODS OF WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH GUSTS UP TO
30-35 MPH AT TIMES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY REMAIN IN THE
TEENS AND 20S WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO EVEN SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW ZERO THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF THE WEEK.
AS A RESULT, WIND CHILLS WILL MAINLY RANGE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO TEENS DURING THE DAY. MORE IMPORTANTLY AT NIGHT, WIND CHILLS
WILL BECOME DANGEROUSLY COLD GENERALLY RANGING BETWEEN 0 TO -10
DEGREES IN MOST AREAS. FOR THE AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF I-95 AND
ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE SNOW PACK IS DEEPER,
WIND CHILLS MAY RANGE BETWEEN -10 TO -25 DEGREES AT TIMES.
OVERALL, THIS WILL BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF COLD WEATHER, WHERE
COLD WEATHER HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE WARRANTED IN THE COMING
DAYS.
WITH SUCH A LONG DURATION OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPS, DO NOT
EXPECT THE NEW SNOW PACK TO MELT MUCH. ASIDE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SNOW ON THURSDAY WITH LOW DEVELOPING OFFSHORE, DRY WEATHER
IS EXPECTED.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS...
TODAY... LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THEN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED. THE IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR KABE/KRDG
FIRST (10-12Z) THEN FOR THE DELAWARE VALLEY (13Z TO 15Z) THE LASTLY
KMIV/KACY BY 16Z. WIND GUSTS FROM THE NW TO 25 KTS DEVELOP BY MID
MORNING AND CONTINUE THRU THE AFTERNOON. MEDIUM/HIGH CONFID.
TONIGHT... VFR EXPECTED. GUSTY NW TO W WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO 25 KTS EARLY THEN SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT. HIGH CONFID.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED THRU THE
PERIOD.
MARINE
WE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN THE WIND FLAGS FOR THE MARINE AREAS
WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. WE'LL CONTINUE THE SCA FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT FOR GUSTS AND SIGNIFICANT SEAS ON THE OCEAN. WINDS
WILL RELAX A BIT THIS MORNING BUT GALE GUSTS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS MORE COLD AIR ARRIVES ACROSS THE WATERS. THE GALE
WATCH WAS CONVERTED TO A WARNING AND WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT 11Z.
THE GALE START TIMING IS EARLY WITH THE GUSTS NOT EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE UNTIL AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY WILL DEVELOP TOO AS TEMPS
FALL THRU THE AREA.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...GALES CONTINUE ALL WATERS IN THE EVENING,
DIMINISHING LATE TO SCA LEVEL GUSTS. SEAS OF 6-9 FEET. FREEZING
SPRAY POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS PROBABLE. WIND
GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT AND SEAS OF 3-6 FEET. FREEZING SPRAY
POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS EARLY
WEDNESDAY, THEN NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED. WINDS UP TO 25 KTS
EARLY, THEN 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS OF 2-4 FEET.
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS PROBABLE
THURSDAY, POSSIBLY REACHING GALES THURSDAY NIGHT. WIND GUSTS UP
TO 25-30 KT DURING THE DAY, INCREASING UP TO 35 KTS AT NIGHT
WITH SEAS OF 2-4 FEET, INCREASING TO 3-6 FEET.
FRIDAY...SCA CONDITIONS PROBABLE. WNW GUSTING TO 25 KTS AND SEAS
3-5 FEET.
CLIMATE
AN IMPACTFUL WINTER STORM BRINGING SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
TO THE AREA IS EXPECTED TODAY. HERE ARE THE 1-DAY DAILY RECORD
TOTALS FOR TODAY FROM OUR SNOW OBSERVING SITES. SOME OF THESE
COULD BE CHALLENGED.
TODAY'S DAILY SNOWFALL RECORDS
ALLENTOWN (ABE) 10.4" (1988)
AC AIRPORT (ACY) 8.3" (2000)
PHILADELPHIA (PHL) 8.5" (2000)
READING (RDG) 9.0" (1905)
TRENTON (TTN) 14.0" (1905)
WILMINGTON (ILG) 10.0" (2000)
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ430-431-450>455.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ430-431-450>455.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
DISCUSSION...COOPER/RCM/PO
AVIATION...COOPER/GORSE/MJL/PO
MARINE...COOPER/MJL/PO
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