527
FXUS61 KPHI 260815
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
315 AM EST MON JAN 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN TAKEN DOWN AS SNOW, SLEET,
AND FREEZING RAIN HAVE ENDED.
A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
NIGHT AS WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS SEEING WIND CHILLS
BELOW ZERO AND EVEN LOWER.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A PROLONGED STRETCH OF DANGEROUS (AND POTENTIALLY RECORD-
SETTING) COLD SETTLES OVER THE REGION THIS WEEK AND POSSIBLY
INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS WELL BELOW FREEZING AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS, RESULTING IN BELOW ZERO
WIND CHILLS.
2. MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL SYSTEM NEXT WEEKEND
BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN WHAT, IF ANYTHING, WILL HAPPEN
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A PROLONGED STRETCH OF DANGEROUS (AND POTENTIALLY RECORD-
SETTING) COLD SETTLES OVER THE REGION THIS WEEK AND POSSIBLY
INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS WELL BELOW FREEZING AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS, RESULTING IN BELOW ZERO
WIND CHILLS.
AS WE DIG OUT AND CLEAN UP FROM YESTERDAY'S WINTER STORM, BITTER
COLD SETTLES OVER THE AREA FOR THIS WEEK. A LONGWAVE TROUGH SETS
UP OVER THE EASTERN US WITH SEVERAL REINFORCING SHOTS OF ARCTIC
AIR. THIS STRETCH OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL LAST FOR
SEVERAL DAYS. AS WE GET LATER INTO THIS COLD STRETCH, SOME
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES AND RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD
BE BROKEN, MAINLY FROM THE 29TH TO THE 31ST (RECORDS LISTED IN
THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW). THIS WILL BE QUITE THE MEMORABLE
STRETCH OF COLD WEATHER BOTH IN MAGNITUDE AND DURATION, AND
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE LIKELY IF PROPER PRECAUTIONS ARE NOT
MADE.
TODAY ACTUALLY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. FOR TONIGHT, LOWS DROP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AREA WIDE. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A TIGHT GRADIENT, KEEPING
WINDS ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT. SINGLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES AND
WIND GUSTS 20-30 MPH WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO FOR
NEARLY THE ENTIRE AREA, GETTING AS LOW AS 15 BELOW IN THE
SOUTHERN POCONOS.
GIVEN SUCH LOW WIND CHILLS, A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WAS ISSUED
FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY ONLY GETTING INTO
THE UPPER TEENS/LOW 20S AND SIMILAR WIND CHILLS FOR TUESDAY
NIGHT, THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY RUNS STRAIGHT THROUGH FROM
MONDAY NIGHT UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING AREA-WIDE.
A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR COMES ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. IT WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED THOUGH AND NOT
EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION. THE BIGGER IMPACT WILL BE
TEMPERATURES TAKING EVEN MORE OF A TUMBLE. WHILE THE COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY EXPIRES WEDNESDAY MORNING, SOME SORT OF
HEADLINE WILL BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
THE QUESTION REMAINS WHETHER IT WOULD BE A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
OR EXTREME COLD WARNING. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS DAYTIME HIGHS
ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS EACH DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLY GETTING ABOVE 20 (BUT NOT MUCH HIGHER) SOUTH AND EAST
OF I-95. OVERNIGHT LOWS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL EITHER BE LOW SINGLE DIGITS OR BELOW ZERO
REGION WIDE. FACTOR IN AN ELEVATED WIND WITH A MODEST PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVERHEAD, AND WIND CHILLS END UP BETWEEN -10 AND -20
NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND 0 TO -10 ELSEWHERE FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST HAVING WIND CHILLS BETWEEN -15 AND -25 ALONG AND WEST
OF THE FALL LINE WITH -5 TO -15 ELSEWHERE. JUST BONE CHILLING
COLD THAT WILL HAVE IMPACTS TO ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE AND COULD
RESULT IN FROSTBITE AND HYPOTHERMIA WITHIN MINUTES IF NOT
LAYERED UP.
OVERALL, IT IS EXCEEDINGLY RARE TO GET THIS COMBINATION OF
LENGTH AND MAGNITUDE OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS AND IT SHOULD BE
TAKEN SERIOUSLY FOR THOSE WHO HAVE TO VENTURE OUT IN THE COLD
FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL SYSTEM NEXT WEEKEND
BUT CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN WHAT, IF ANYTHING, WILL HAPPEN.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
POTENTIAL OF SOME SORT OF SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST NEXT WEEKEND. OVERNIGHT GUIDANCE STILL IS ALL OVER THE
PLACE BUT THERE IS FAIR AGREEMENT IN SOME SORT OF STORM
DEVELOPING. THE ECMWF AND ITS AI COUNTERPART ARE MORE BULLISH
WITH THE GFS AND CMC BEING DIFFERENT VERSIONS OF MISSES OR MINOR
STORM. GEFS ENSEMBLE PROBABILITY OF 24 HOUR SNOWFALL > 4 INCHES
IS AROUND 15-20% FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. THE NBM PROBABILITY IS
SIMILAR.
OVERALL, IT BEARS WATCHING TO SEE HOW THINGS SHAKE OUT OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AND HOW GUIDANCE HANDLES THE FEATURES IN THE WAKE
OF YESTERDAY'S STORM. WHAT THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IS THAT
THERE WILL BE A COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE, SUFFICIENT FOR SNOW. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN PLACE FOR NEXT WEEKEND, SO IT WILL
BE A MATTER OF IF A STORM DEVELOPS AND WHAT THE TRACK WILL BE.
THAT WILL BE IRONED OUT OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS...
TODAY... LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT FOG ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY THEN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED. THE IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR KABE/KRDG
FIRST (10-12Z) THEN FOR THE DELAWARE VALLEY (13Z TO 15Z) THE LASTLY
KMIV/KACY BY 16Z. WIND GUSTS FROM THE NW TO 25 KTS DEVELOP BY MID
MORNING AND CONTINUE THRU THE AFTERNOON. MEDIUM/HIGH CONFID.
TONIGHT... VFR EXPECTED. GUSTY NW TO W WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS
TO 25 KTS EARLY THEN SUBSIDING OVERNIGHT. HIGH CONFID.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED THRU THE
PERIOD.
MARINE
WE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS IN THE WIND FLAGS FOR THE MARINE AREAS
WITH THE LATEST UPDATE. WE'LL CONTINUE THE SCA FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT FOR GUSTS AND SIGNIFICANT SEAS ON THE OCEAN. WINDS
WILL RELAX A BIT THIS MORNING BUT GALE GUSTS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS MORE COLD AIR ARRIVES ACROSS THE WATERS. THE GALE
WATCH WAS CONVERTED TO A WARNING AND WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT 11Z.
THE GALE START TIMING IS EARLY WITH THE GUSTS NOT EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE UNTIL AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY WILL DEVELOP TOO AS TEMPS
FALL THRU THE AREA. A FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR ALL
MARINE ZONES FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS PROBABLE. WIND
GUSTS AROUND 25-30 KT AND SEAS OF 3-6 FEET. FREEZING SPRAY
ADVISORY GOES THROUGH THE MORNING FOR OCEAN ZONES.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS EARLY
WEDNESDAY, THEN NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED. WINDS UP TO 25 KTS
EARLY, THEN 20 KT OR LESS AND SEAS OF 2-4 FEET.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS PROBABLE
THURSDAY (80-90%) WITH A CHANCE FOR GALES (30-40%). WIND GUSTS
UP TO 25-30 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS GETTING NEAR 5 FEET
CLIMATE
POTENTIALLY RECORD-BREAKING COLD IS EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK WITH
A CHANCE FOR SOME OF OUR CLIMATE SITES TO SET RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURES AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES AND RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR:
JANUARY 29
SITE LOW/YEAR LOW MAX TEMPERATURE/YEAR
ABE -9/1963 12/1977
ACY 0/1966 18/1977
PHL -5/1963 18/1977
ILG 0/1961 18/1966
RDG -4/1987 18/1902
TTN 0/1873 17/1977
MPO -21/1988 7/1966
GED -6/1966 18/1966
55N 7/1966 22/2014
JANUARY 30
SITE LOW/YEAR LOW MAX TEMPERATURE/YEAR
ABE -5/1928 14/1934
ACY -3/2014 19/1965
PHL 7/2019 18/1965
ILG 3/2014 16/1934
RDG -1/2014 9/2013
TTN 4/2014 12/1873
MPO -15/1965 7/1934
GED -5/2014 24/2010
55N 8/1935 18/1934
JANUARY 31
SITE LOW/YEAR LOW MAX TEMPERATURE/YEAR
ABE -9/1948 14/2019
ACY 0/1948 20/2019
PHL 3/1948 18/2019
ILG 3/1948 19/2019
RDG -5/2019 14/2019
TTN -1/1920 16/2019
MPO -15/1908 4/2019
GED 1/1948 23/2019
55N 4/1948 19/2019
NOT ALL RECORDS WILL BE CHALLENGED OR BROKEN, BUT SOME
COULD FALL OVER THE COMING DAYS AND NIGHTS.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>027.
DE...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ430-431-450>455.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ430-431-450>455.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
DISCUSSION...HOEFLICH
AVIATION...OHARA
MARINE...HOEFLICH/OHARA
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