010
FXUS61 KPHI 271951
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
251 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO CHANGES TO THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
THERE'S INCREASING CONFIDENCE THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME IMPACTS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND FROM A POTENTIALLY MAJOR
COASTAL STORM. IMPACTS COULD BE SIGNIFICANT, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A PROLONGED STRETCH OF DANGEROUS (AND POTENTIALLY RECORD-
SETTING) COLD SETTLES OVER THE REGION THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS WELL BELOW FREEZING AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS, RESULTING IN BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS.
2. A RAPIDLY DEEPENING STORM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST
COAST THIS WEEKEND. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC FORECAST DETAILS
REMAINS LOW, THE STORM COULD BRING AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA
MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM SNOW, STRONG WINDS, AND COASTAL
FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1....A PROLONGED STRETCH OF DANGEROUS (AND POTENTIALLY
RECORD-SETTING) COLD SETTLES OVER THE REGION THIS WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS WELL BELOW FREEZING AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS, RESULTING IN BELOW ZERO
WIND CHILLS.
LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES IN CENTRAL CANADA TRACKS EAST,
AND THIS WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. AN UPPER TROUGH WITH STRONG
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM, AND WILL CROSS
THE REGION BY THIS EVENING AS WELL.
THESE SHORTWAVES MAY TOUCH OFF SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS AND FAR NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY, SO WILL GO AHEAD AND ADD
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE FORECAST TO COVER THESE SNOW SHOWERS. SOME
FLURRIES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND DOWN TO THE
I-95 CORRIDOR, SO WILL ADD THOSE TO THE WEATHER GRIDS AS WELL.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY TONIGHT AS WINDS TURN
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH. THOUGH SKIES
CLEAR OUT, WINDS MAY BE A BIT TOO ELEVATED FOR OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS DESPITE THE WIDESPREAD SNOWPACK. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO AS LOW AS 5 BELOW IN THE
SOUTHERN POCONOS, THOUGH IF WINDS DO DIMINISH IN SOME LOCALIZED
SPOTS, THEN TEMPERATURES COULD DROP MUCH LOWER THAN THAT. MINIMUM
WIND CHILLS WILL RANGE FROM ZERO TO AS LOW AS 10 BELOW FOR MOST OF
THE AREA AND FROM 10 BELOW TO 15 BELOW FOR THE SOUTHERN POCONOS,
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY, AND THE LEHIGH VALLEY. NO CHANGES TO THE COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY THAT IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM WEDNESDAY.
SUNNY AND COLD ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S.
THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND BITTER WIND CHILLS WILL PERSIST
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND BEYOND. THIS WILL OCCUR DUE TO A
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA WITH
REPEATED RE-ENFORCING SHOTS OF ARCTIC AIR SWINGING IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST AROUND THIS FEATURE. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY, EXPECT MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS WITH EACH MORNING ACTUALLY LOOKING
SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE DUE TO THESE RE-ENFORCING
SHOTS OF ARCTIC AIR. MORE IMPORTANTLY, THERE WILL BE AT LEAST
SOME WINDS THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH EARLY MORNING WIND
CHILLS STILL EXPECTED TO BE SUB-ZERO REGION WIDE WITH NEGATIVE
TEENS N/W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR TO EVEN AROUND -20 IN THE
SOUTHERN POCONOS. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES MAY OCCUR
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK HOWEVER TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO
BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE.
OVERALL, IT IS EXCEEDINGLY RARE TO GET THIS COMBINATION OF LENGTH
AND MAGNITUDE OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS FOR THIS AREA AND IT SHOULD BE
TAKEN SERIOUSLY FOR THOSE WHO HAVE TO VENTURE OUT IN THE COLD FOR
EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A RAPIDLY DEEPENING STORM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC FORECAST
DETAILS REMAINS LOW, THE STORM COULD BRING AT LEAST PORTIONS OF
THE AREA MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM SNOW, STRONG
WINDS, AND COASTAL FLOODING.
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST CYCLOGENSIS OCCURRING
BEGINNING SATURDAY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITH RAPIDLY
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE DEPICTED TO THEN MOVE NORTH AND EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL OCCUR DUE TO A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PIVOTING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST INTERACTING WITH THE STRONG BAROCLINIC
ZONE ALONG THE COAST.
IN TERMS OF IMPACTS TO OUR FORECAST AREA, THIS STILL HINGES ON THE
EXACT TRACK THE STORM TAKES WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
THE LATEST GFS TRENDED WEST SOME AND IS OVERALL NOT TOO
DIFFERENT THAN THE GEM. THE LATEST EC IS STILL FARTHER EAST THAN
THESE MODELS. IT IS ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT THERE CONTINUES TO
BE SPREAD IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS (THE GEFS) WITH THE
ENSEMBLE MEAN A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN THE DETERMINISTIC . SO
THIS ALL SAID, IT BOILS DOWN TO WHETHER THE STORM TRACKS FARTHER
NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST BEFORE TURNING EAST (BRINGING THE
AREA GREATER IMPACTS) VS. BEING QUICKER TO TURN EAST MEANING THE
TRACK WOULD STAY FARTHER AWAY BRINGING MORE LIMITED IMPACTS.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE NOT JUST HEAVY PRECIPITATION BUT ALSO
STRONG WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING AS THE STORM WILL HAVE A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A VERY STRONG WIND FIELD. TIMING WISE,
THE EARLIEST THIS WOULD ARRIVE IS LATE DAY SATURDAY WITH THE
BRUNT OF THE STORM OCCURING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY IF WE GET
IT. GIVEN THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN PLACE BOTH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT, ALL SNOW IS STRONGLY FAVORED IN TERMS OF
PRECIP TYPE. THE LATEST NBM PROBABILISTIC DATA FOR SNOW AMOUNTS
GREATER THAN 2 INCHES (PLOWABLE) RANGES FROM AROUND 60 PERCENT
NEAR THE COAST TO 50 PERCENT NEAR THE I-95 CORRIDOR WITH LOWER
PROBABILITIES N/W OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR. FOR 6+ INCHES, THESE
PROBS ARE AROUND 40 PERCENT NEAR I-95 UP TO 50 PERCENT NEAR THE
COAST. THESE PROBABILITIES SEEM REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.
REGARDLESS OF SNOW AMOUNTS, THE STORM WILL LIKELY TRACK CLOSE
ENOUGH TO BRING THE AREA INCREASING WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. OUR CURRENT FORECAST HAS N/NE WINDS FORECAST TO
BE 15 TO 25 GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH INLAND SUNDAY WITH WINDS 25 TO
35 GUSTING UP TO 50 MPH ALONG THE COAST. WINDS COULD EVEN END UP
A BIT STRONGER THAN THIS IF A MORE N/W TRACK WITH THE STORM
OCCURS. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES AND
WILL ALSO HELP CAUSE WATER TO PILE UP ALONG THE COAST.
BY SUNDAY EVENING, THE STORM SHOULD BE RAPIDLY PULLING AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH GENERALLY TRANQUIL BUT COLD WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
OVERALL, IT WILL CONTINUE TO BEAR WATCHING TO SEE HOW THINGS SHAKE
OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AND HOW GUIDANCE HANDLES THE FEATURES
IN THE WAKE OF OUR RECENT STORM. FORECAST DETAILS SHOULD COME INTO
CLEARER FOCUS AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS...
REST OF TODAY...VFR. BKN-OVC CIGS 040-080 FROM AROUND 21Z TO
00Z. W-SW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. SOME
FLURRIES OR BRIEF SHSN POSSIBLE, MAINLY AT KRDG/KABE, WITH NO
EXPECTED RESTRICTIONS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. BECOMING SKC BY 06Z. W WINDS AROUND 10 KT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. W-NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
KT, DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 10 KT AFTER 18Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY VFR.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING WINDS AND SUB VFR
CONDITIONS ARRIVING LATE SATURDAY CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY DEPENDING
ON TRACK OF COASTAL STORM.
MARINE
WHILE THERE MAY BE A LULL IN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL RAMP BACK UP INTO THIS EVENING, SO
WILL MAKE NO CHANGES TO THE SCA FOR THE OCEAN. SOUTHWEST WINDS
15 TO 20 KT WITH 25 TO 30 KT GUSTS WILL TURN NORTHWEST BEHIND A
COLD FRONT THIS EVENING, THEN THOSE 25 TO 30 KT GUSTS CONTINUE
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. SCA FOR THE OCEAN REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM WEDNESDAY AND WILL HOIST A NEW SCA FOR
DELAWARE BAY FROM MIDNIGHT TO 7 AM.
THE FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FOR THE OCEAN THAT WAS SET TO
EXPIRE AT 1 PM HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 10 AM WEDNESDAY. A NEW
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR DELAWARE BAY FROM
MIDNIGHT TO 7 AM WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
WINDS RAMP UP AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH SCA
CONDITIONS PROBABLE. THE WINDS SHOULD COME DOWN A BIT FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY BUT WILL STILL BE PRETTY CLOSE TO SCA
LEVELS.
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS RAMP UP DUE TO COASTAL STORM
WITH GALE FORCE WINDS PROBABLE AND EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM
FORCE WINDS. SEAS COULD EXCEED 10 FEET SUNDAY.
CLIMATE
POTENTIALLY RECORD-BREAKING COLD IS EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK
WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME OF OUR CLIMATE SITES TO SET RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURES AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES AND RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR:
JANUARY 29
SITE LOW/YEAR LOW MAX TEMPERATURE/YEAR
ABE -9/1963 12/1977
ACY 0/1966 18/1977
PHL -5/1963 18/1977
ILG 0/1961 18/1966
RDG -4/1987 18/1902
TTN 0/1873 17/1977
MPO -21/1988 7/1966
GED -6/1966 18/1966
55N 7/1966 22/2014
JANUARY 30
SITE LOW/YEAR LOW MAX TEMPERATURE/YEAR
ABE -5/1928 14/1934
ACY -3/2014 19/1965
PHL 7/2019 18/1965
ILG 3/2014 16/1934
RDG -1/2014 9/2013
TTN 4/2014 12/1873
MPO -15/1965 7/1934
GED -5/2014 24/2010
55N 8/1935 18/1934
JANUARY 31
SITE LOW/YEAR LOW MAX TEMPERATURE/YEAR
ABE -9/1948 14/2019
ACY 0/1948 20/2019
PHL 3/1948 18/2019
ILG 3/1948 19/2019
RDG -5/2019 14/2019
TTN -1/1920 16/2019
MPO -15/1908 4/2019
GED 1/1948 23/2019
55N 4/1948 19/2019
NOT ALL RECORDS WILL BE CHALLENGED OR BROKEN, BUT SOME
COULD FALL OVER THE COMING DAYS AND NIGHTS.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NJZ001-
007>010-012>027.
DE...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MDZ012-015-
019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM EST
WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ430-431.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ450>455.
DISCUSSION...FITZSIMMONS/OHARA/RCM
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/MPS/OHARA/RCM
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/MPS/OHARA/RCM
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