032
FXUS61 KPHI 281740
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1240 PM EST WED JAN 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.
THERE'S INCREASING CONFIDENCE THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME
IMPACTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND FROM A
POTENTIALLY MAJOR COASTAL STORM. IMPACTS COULD BE SIGNIFICANT,
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A PROLONGED STRETCH OF DANGEROUS (AND POTENTIALLY RECORD-
SETTING) COLD SETTLES OVER THE REGION THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS WELL BELOW FREEZING AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS, RESULTING IN BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS.
2. A RAPIDLY DEEPENING STORM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE
EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC FORECAST
DETAILS REMAINS LOW, THE STORM COULD BRING AT LEAST PORTIONS OF
THE AREA MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM SNOW, STRONG
WINDS, AND COASTAL FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1....A PROLONGED STRETCH OF DANGEROUS (AND
POTENTIALLY RECORD-SETTING) COLD SETTLES OVER THE REGION THIS
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS WELL BELOW
FREEZING AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS, RESULTING IN
BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOSTLY DOMINATES THROUGH THURSDAY. AN
UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING, AND THIS WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT
OF ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND
MID-ATLANTIC WITH RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY. AS A RESULT,
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WITH MINIMAL SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN SHORES OF MARYLAND AND SOUTHERN
DELAWARE WITH ITS PASSAGE. WILL BUMP UP POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS EVENING. FOR THE REST OF THE AREA, SOME
SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO OTHER SHORTWAVES.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST OF THE
AREA AND AS LOW AS 5 BELOW ZERO FOR THE SOUTHERN POCONOS, FAR
NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY, AND THE LEHIGH VALLEY. MINIMUM WIND CHILLS
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM AS LOW AS
10 BELOW ZERO TO 15 BELOW ZERO. THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE SOME
SPOTS IN OUTLYING AREAS WHERE WINDS DROP TO AROUND 5 MPH, AND
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING WHICH COULD RESULT IN
EVEN COLDER LOCALIZED TEMPERATURES.
MOSTLY SUNNY, BREEZY, AND COLD ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
TEENS AND LOW 20S.
THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND BITTER WIND CHILLS WILL PERSIST
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND BEYOND. THIS WILL OCCUR DUE TO A
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA WITH
REPEATED RE-ENFORCING SHOTS OF ARCTIC AIR SWINGING IN FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST AROUND THIS FEATURE. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY NIGHT, EXPECT MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS WITH EACH MORNING ACTUALLY
LOOKING SLIGHTLY COLDER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE DUE TO THESE RE-
ENFORCING SHOTS OF ARCTIC AIR. MORE IMPORTANTLY, THERE WILL BE
AT LEAST SOME WINDS THROUGH MOST OF THIS PERIOD WITH EARLY
MORNING WIND CHILLS STILL EXPECTED TO BE SUB-ZERO REGION WIDE
WITH NEGATIVE TEENS N/W OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR TO EVEN AROUND -20
IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOS. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES MAY
OCCUR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK HOWEVER TEMPERATURES STILL
LOOK TO BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE.
OVERALL, IT IS EXCEEDINGLY RARE TO GET THIS COMBINATION OF
LENGTH AND MAGNITUDE OF AN ARCTIC AIRMASS FOR THIS AREA AND IT
SHOULD BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY FOR THOSE WHO HAVE TO VENTURE OUT IN
THE COLD FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A RAPIDLY DEEPENING STORM WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC FORECAST
DETAILS REMAINS LOW, THE STORM COULD BRING AT LEAST PORTIONS OF
THE AREA MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM SNOW, STRONG
WINDS, AND COASTAL FLOODING.
FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST CYCLOGENSIS OCCURRING
BEGINNING SATURDAY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITH RAPIDLY
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE DEPICTED TO THEN MOVE NORTH AND EAST
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL OCCUR DUE TO A POTENT
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PIVOTING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EAST INTERACTING WITH THE STRONG BAROCLINIC
ZONE ALONG THE COAST.
IN TERMS OF IMPACTS TO OUR FORECAST AREA, THIS STILL HINGES ON
THE EXACT TRACK THE STORM TAKES WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME. THE LATEST GFS TRENDED WEST A LITTLE. HOWEVER, THE LATEST
GEM TRENDED EAST, LIKE THE LATEST EC. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SPREAD IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS (THE
GEFS) WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEAN A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN THE
DETERMINISTIC . SO THIS ALL SAID, IT BOILS DOWN TO WHETHER THE
STORM TRACKS FARTHER NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST BEFORE TURNING
EAST (BRINGING THE AREA GREATER IMPACTS) VS. BEING QUICKER TO
TURN EAST MEANING THE TRACK WOULD STAY FARTHER AWAY BRINGING
MORE LIMITED IMPACTS. POTENTIAL IMPACTS INCLUDE NOT JUST HEAVY
PRECIPITATION BUT ALSO STRONG WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING AS THE
STORM WILL HAVE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH A VERY STRONG
WIND FIELD. TIMING WISE, THE EARLIEST THIS WOULD ARRIVE IS LATE
DAY SATURDAY WITH THE BRUNT OF THE STORM OCCURING SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY IF WE GET IT. GIVEN THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES IN
PLACE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT, ALL SNOW IS STRONGLY
FAVORED IN TERMS OF PRECIP TYPE.
THE LATEST NBM PROBABILISTIC DATA HAS TRENDED DOWNWARD A BIT.
FOR SNOW AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 2 INCHES (PLOWABLE), THE RANGE IS
FROM AROUND 50 PERCENT NEAR THE COAST TO 40 PERCENT NEAR THE
I-95 CORRIDOR WITH LOWER PROBABILITIES N/W OF THE URBAN
CORRIDOR. FOR 6+ INCHES, THESE PROBS ARE AROUND 30 PERCENT NEAR
I-95 UP TO 40 PERCENT NEAR THE COAST. THESE PROBABILITIES SEEM
REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. REGARDLESS OF SNOW AMOUNTS, THE STORM
WILL LIKELY TRACK CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING THE AREA INCREASING
WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. OUR CURRENT FORECAST
HAS N/NE WINDS FORECAST TO BE 15 TO 25 GUSTING 25 TO 35 MPH
INLAND SUNDAY WITH WINDS 25 TO 35 GUSTING UP TO 50 MPH ALONG THE
COAST. WINDS COULD EVEN END UP A BIT STRONGER THAN THIS IF A
MORE N/W TRACK WITH THE STORM OCCURS. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME
DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES AND WILL ALSO HELP CAUSE WATER TO PILE
UP ALONG THE COAST.
BY SUNDAY EVENING, THE STORM SHOULD BE RAPIDLY PULLING AWAY TO
THE NORTHEAST WITH GENERALLY TRANQUIL BUT COLD WEATHER FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL, IT WILL CONTINUE TO BEAR WATCHING TO SEE HOW THINGS
SHAKE OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AND HOW GUIDANCE HANDLES THE
FEATURES IN THE WAKE OF OUR RECENT STORM. FORECAST DETAILS
SHOULD COME INTO CLEARER FOCUS AS WE GO THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS...
REST OF TODAY...VFR. BKN CIGS AROUND 5000 FEET WILL DEVELOP BY
21Z. W-NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. W-NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT, DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5
KT BY 06Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
WEDNESDAY...VFR. NW WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WITH 20 TO 25 KT GUSTS
AFTER 15Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY VFR.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING WINDS AND
SUB VFR CONDITIONS ARRIVING LATE SATURDAY CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY
DEPENDING ON TRACK OF COASTAL STORM. HIGHEST CHANCE OF IMPACTS
KACY, LOWEST KRDG, INTERMEDIATE AT KPHL.
MARINE
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS INTO THIS EVENING. A COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE WATERS BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, THEN NW
WINDS RAMP UP TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH 25 TO 30 KT GUSTS ON DELAWARE
BAY AND THE OCEAN WATERS SOUTH OF THE GREAT EGG INLET AND WILL
LAST THROUGH THURSDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOW IN EFFECT
FOR THOSE WATERS FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTH OF THE
GREAT EGG INLET, WINDS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE 10 TO 15 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT, SO NO SCA WILL BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME. A
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS WHERE A
SCA IS IN EFFECT.
OUTLOOK...
WINDS RAMP UP AGAIN THURSDAY WITH SCA CONDITIONS PROBABLE. THE
WINDS SHOULD COME DOWN A BIT FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY BUT WILL
STILL BE PRETTY CLOSE TO SCA LEVELS.
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS RAMP UP DUE TO COASTAL
STORM WITH GALE FORCE WINDS PROBABLE AND EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
STORM FORCE WINDS. SEAS COULD EXCEED 10 FEET SUNDAY.
CLIMATE
POTENTIALLY RECORD-BREAKING COLD IS EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK
WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME OF OUR CLIMATE SITES TO SET RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURES AND RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES AND RECORD LOW HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR:
JANUARY 29
SITE LOW/YEAR LOW MAX TEMPERATURE/YEAR
ABE -9/1963 12/1977
ACY 0/1966 18/1977
PHL -5/1963 18/1977
ILG 0/1961 18/1966
RDG -4/1987 18/1902
TTN 0/1873 17/1977
MPO -21/1988 7/1966
GED -6/1966 18/1966
55N 7/1966 22/2014
JANUARY 30
SITE LOW/YEAR LOW MAX TEMPERATURE/YEAR
ABE -5/1928 14/1934
ACY -3/2014 19/1965
PHL 7/2019 18/1965
ILG 3/2014 16/1934
RDG -1/2014 9/2013
TTN 4/2014 12/1873
MPO -15/1965 7/1934
GED -5/2014 24/2010
55N 8/1935 18/1934
JANUARY 31
SITE LOW/YEAR LOW MAX TEMPERATURE/YEAR
ABE -9/1948 14/2019
ACY 0/1948 20/2019
PHL 3/1948 18/2019
ILG 3/1948 19/2019
RDG -5/2019 14/2019
TTN -1/1920 16/2019
MPO -15/1908 4/2019
GED 1/1948 23/2019
55N 4/1948 19/2019
NOT ALL RECORDS WILL BE CHALLENGED OR BROKEN, BUT SOME
COULD FALL OVER THE COMING DAYS AND NIGHTS.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ001-
007>010-012>027.
DE...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ012-015-
019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431-452>455.
FREEZING SPRAY ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ430-431-452>455.
DISCUSSION...MPS/OHARA/RCM
AVIATION...MPS/OHARA/RCM
MARINE...MPS/OHARA/RCM
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