878
FXUS61 KPHI 120641
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
141 AM EST THU FEB 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
1. GUSTY WINDS THROUGH TODAY WITH A BRIEF COOL DOWN THROUGH FRIDAY.
MILDER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEK.
2. LOW PRESSURE SLIDING BY TO OUR SOUTH LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...GUSTY WINDS THROUGH TODAY WITH A BRIEF COOL DOWN
THROUGH FRIDAY. MILDER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AND ESPECIALLY
NEXT WEEK.
IT REMAINS BREEZY OVERNIGHT AS THERE'S A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OFF TO OUR EAST AND
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY, KEEPING BREEZY NW WINDS IN THE
FORECAST. THE GUSTINESS SHOULD DIMINISH SOME OVERNIGHT AND THEN PACK
BACK UP AGAIN THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH
LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY BUT NOT AS COLD
AS WHAT WE'VE DEALT WITH FOR MUCH OF THE PAST FEW WEEKS. HOWEVER THE
WIND CHILL WILL STILL MAKE IT FEEL RATHER COLD. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 30S (20S OVER THE POCONOS) BUT WITH THE WIND
CHILL IT WILL FEEL A GOOD 10 DEGREES OR SO COLDER THAN THIS. THERE
WILL ALSO BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AROUND.
THE WINDS DIMINISH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH HIGHS FRIDAY ONCE AGAIN
MAINLY IN THE 30S EXCEPT 20S OVER THE POCONOS. FRIDAY SHOULD ALSO
FEATURE MAINLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.
THE AIR MASS OVER THE AREA MODERATES THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE 30S NORTH TO THE MID/UPPER 40S
SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS, AT LEAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT, WILL BE BELOW
FREEZING (IN THE 20S). THE OVERALL MODERATING TREND LOOKS TO
CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH LOW PRESSURE SLIDING BY TO OUR
SOUTH LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY COULD RESULT IN SOME COOLING ON
SUNDAY (SEE KEY MESSAGE 2 BELOW). REGARDLESS OF WHAT HAPPENS
WITH THE STORM, IT WILL HAVE DEPARTED BY NEXT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS BY THEN LOOKING TO BE WELL INTO THE 40S FOR
MOST AREAS WITH EVEN SOME 50S OVER PARTS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN.
KEY MESSAGE 2...LOW PRESSURE SLIDING BY TO OUR SOUTH LATER SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.
THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WHILE
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE INTENSITY AND TRACK DETAILS OF
THIS SYSTEM, THE SURFACE LOW ITSELF DOES LOOK TO SLIDE BY TO OUR
SOUTH. THE AIR MASS IN PLACE PRIOR TO THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ON THE
MILDER SIDE (HIGHS SATURDAY MOSTLY IN THE 40S), WITH RAIN OR SNOW
CHANGING TO RAIN WOULD TEND TO BE FAVORED. A WEAKER SYSTEM WOULD
TEND TO FAVOR LESS SNOW, HOWEVER SOME PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN
PHASING OCCURS WHICH RESULTED IN A MUCH STRONGER STORM. IF THIS
WERE TO PAN OUT, DYNAMIC COOLING DUE TO ROBUST FORCING FOR ASCENT
ALONG WITH JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR COULD RESULT IN ACCUMULATING SNOW
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA EXCLUDING MOST OF THE COAST. A STRONG STORM
SOLUTION CONTINUES TO BE A LOW PROBABILITY BASED ON THE OVERALL
TRENDS IN DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR NORTH THE ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION
SHIELD GETS, OPTED TO MAINTAIN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH THE NBM
GUIDANCE WHICH HAS CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS (30-70 PERCENT) FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY. THE AREAS FARTHER NORTH
THAT HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING ANY PRECIPITATION FALL AS SNOW
ALSO HAVE THE LOWER POPS AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
OVERNIGHT...VFR WITH A SCATTERED TO BROKEN DECK OF CLOUD COVER
AROUND 4-5 THOUSAND FEET. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS
WITH SOME GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KNOTS AT TIMES. GUSTS SHOULD
GENERALLY DIMINISH IN FREQUENCY OVERNIGHT. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
THURSDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING CLOUDS BY MIDDAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KNOTS IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN
10 KNOTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AND RAIN/SNOW
POSSIBLE.
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE ZONES
THROUGH THURSDAY. AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN, EXPECT NW
WINDS GUSTING 25 TO 30 KNOTS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY
BEFORE WINDS SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RUNS UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY. BEYOND THIS TIME
EXPECT SUB SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY.
REGARDING THE RIVER/BAY ICE...SIGNIFICANT ICE COVER CONTINUES
ACROSS MANY AREA BAY WATERS AND INLAND ESTUARIES. THIS INCLUDES,
BUT IS NOT LIMITED TO THE DELAWARE ESTUARY. ON RIVERS, THE ICE
THICKNESS IS ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME RESTRICTIONS IN THE FLOW. PER
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ICE ANALYSIS DATA, THE DELAWARE RIVER IS
MOSTLY ICE COVERED FROM THE ENTRANCE TO DELAWARE BAY NORTHWARD,
OR UPSTREAM, TO AT LEAST WASHINGTON CROSSING. DELAWARE BAY HAS
QUITE A BIT OF ICE COVER, HOWEVER SATELLITE IMAGERY THE LAST FEW
DAYS HAS SHOWN ICING FLOWING OUT OF DELAWARE BAY INTO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN.
THE MOST COMMON WAYS RIVER ICE CAN BREAK UP IS EITHER THROUGH A
THERMAL OR MECHANICAL MEANS. WE WOULD LIKE TO SEE TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE 40S FOR A FEW DAYS, WHICH PARTS OF THE REGION ARE
FORECAST TO GET TO ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SOME AREAS
GETTING INTO THE 50S EARLY NEXT WEEK. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL,
PRODUCING RIVER RISES, CAN ALSO BREAK UP ICE BUT THAT IS NOT IN
THE FORECAST THIS WEEK.
AS A RESULT, ICE COVER WILL CONTINUE. THERE MAY BE A PAUSE IN
THE ICE GROWTH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS TEMPERATURES RISE TO
AND ABOVE FREEZING, HOWEVER TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT SOME ICE EXPANSION.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE
TRACK AND STRENGTH OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDING BY TO OUR SOUTH.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
431-450>455.
DISCUSSION...FITZSIMMONS/GORSE
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/GORSE
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/GORSE
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