092
FXUS61 KPHI 122315
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
615 PM EST THU FEB 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH COULD BRING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO
AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-78 CORRIDOR LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
THERE WERE MINOR CHANGES IN MODEL DEPICTIONS OF THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM. THE TRENDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN FOR A MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK THAT DOES NOT PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH (AT LEAST WHILE IT IS NEAR OUR REGION) RESULTING IN LESS
IMPACTS FOR OUR REGION.
THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH A SYSTEM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. COLDER, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. MILDER TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND, AND ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEK.
2. SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.
3. ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION, PRIMARILY FOR THE COASTAL
PLAINS, IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SLIDING SOUTH OF OUR REGION.
4. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION, PRIMARILY FOR AREAS NORTH
OF THE PA TURNPIKE/195 CORRIDOR, COMES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...COLDER, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. MILDER TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, AND ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEK.
A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING, AS
THERE'S A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA IN
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OFF TO OUR EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID
30S THIS AFTERNOON UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
EVENING, THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION
WANES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE ON THE ORDER OF 10 DEGREES COLDER
TONIGHT, MAINLY IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH HIGHS FRIDAY ONCE
AGAIN MAINLY IN THE 30S, EXCEPT 20S OVER THE POCONOS. FRIDAY
SHOULD ALSO FEATURE MAINLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.
THE AIRMASS OVER THE AREA MODERATES THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO
THE MID/UPPER 40S SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS, AT LEAST FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT, WILL BE BELOW FREEZING (IN THE 20S). THE OVERALL
MODERATING TREND LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH LOW
PRESSURE SLIDING BY TO OUR SOUTH LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY COULD
RESULT IN SOME COOLING ON SUNDAY (SEE KEY MESSAGE 3 BELOW).
REGARDLESS OF WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE STORM, IT WILL HAVE DEPARTED
BY NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS BY THEN LOOKING TO BE
WELL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST AREAS WITH EVEN SOME 50S OVER PARTS
OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BEGIN RISING ABOVE
FREEZING NEXT WEEK, WHICH IS ANTICIPATED TO RESULT IN MORE
SUBSTANTIAL MELTING OF THE STUBBORN SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
A FAST MOVING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SPARK SOME SNOW
SHOWERS WHICH COULD PROGRESS AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY VERY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
INITIALLY DRY AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD RESULT IN MOSTLY
VIRGA. HOWEVER, SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT THAT THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY BE ABLE TO BE OVERCOME. THAT BEING SAID, IT IS A FAST
MOVING TROUGH, SO THE WINDOW FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM THESE
SHOWERS IS QUITE BRIEF. THUS, ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY
TO BE A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST.
OVERALL, THIS IS UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD IMPACTS, BUT
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND TEENS AS THE SNOW IS FALLING,
IF THERE ARE ANY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THEN UNTREATED SURFACES
COULD BE SLIPPERY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION, PRIMARILY FOR
THE COASTAL PLAINS, IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDING SOUTH OF OUR REGION.
THERE WERE MINOR CHANGES IN MODEL DEPICTIONS OF THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM. THE TRENDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN FOR A MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK THAT DOES NOT PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH (AT LEAST WHILE IT IS NEAR OUR REGION) RESULTING IN LESS
IMPACTS FOR OUR REGION. MOST NOTABLY, THE MAIN ECMWF, WHICH WAS
THE NORTHERN OUTLIER AND DEPICTED THE LOW PHASING WITH A
NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH IN PREVIOUS RUNS, TRENDED CLOSER TO THE
CONSENSUS WITH OTHER GUIDANCE WHICH IS FURTHER SOUTH AND WEAKER.
THESE SOLUTIONS FAVOR A WARMER, FASTER SYSTEM, WITH
PRECIPITATION PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL PLAINS. THIS
SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN LITTLE, IF ANY, SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE, ESPECIALLY IF IT IS CONFINED ONLY TO THE
COASTAL PLAINS WOULD BE PRIMARILY RAIN, BUT COULD START OFF AS A
RAIN SNOW MIX. FURTHER WORKING AGAINST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IS
THE FACT THAT THE AIR MASS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IS
MILDER THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN WITH THE LAST FEW SYSTEMS.
THAT BEING SAID, THERE ARE STILL A FEW MODELS THAT DEPICT THE
STRONGER AND FURTHER NORTH SOLUTION. ADDITIONALLY, IF THE
PRECIPITATION EXTENDS OUTSIDE OF THE COASTAL PLAINS, THEN
PRECIPITATION IN THOSE AREAS IS MORE LIKELY TO BE SNOW FOR
LONGER. THEREFORE, STAYED WITH THE BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR THE
FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGE 4...THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION, PRIMARILY FOR
AREAS NORTH OF THE PA TURNPIKE/195 CORRIDOR, COMES WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WE ARE WATCHING IS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH
COULD BE CROSSING THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
OF NEXT WEEK. UNLIKE THE LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM, THE CENTER OF THIS
LOW IS CURRENTLY DEPICTED CROSSING NORTH OF OUR REGION. THIS
WOULD FAVOR PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE PA TURNPIKE/195 CORRIDOR.
THAT BEING SAID, OUR REGION WOULD BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH
THIS TRACK, WHICH WOULD FAVOR MOSTLY, IF NOT ALL, RAIN.
ONE CAVEAT ON THIS, THERE ARE SOME MODELS ARE DEPICTING THE LOW
STAYING SO FAR NORTH, THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL STAY ENTIRELY
NORTH OF OUR REGION.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...VFR WITH CIGS GENERALLY ABOVE 5K FT. NORTHWEST WINDS
REMAINING NEAR 10 KTS, WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS
POSSIBLE. GUSTS WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAFS, BUT COULD BE
NEEDED FOR SOME SPOTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
FRIDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...VFR. 20% CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWER AT
ABE/TTN.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR ARE POSSIBLE
WITH RAIN AND SNOW. KMIV AND KACY HAVE THE HIGHEST RISK OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED.
MARINE
SCA WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM. A FEW GUSTS MAY STILL REACH
25 KTS OVERNIGHT, BUT FELT IT SHOULDN'T BE FREQUENT ENOUGH TO
WARRANT AN EXTENSION. OTHERWISE, NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY.
REGARDING THE RIVER/BAY ICE...SIGNIFICANT ICE COVER CONTINUES
ACROSS MANY AREA BAY WATERS AND INLAND ESTUARIES. THIS INCLUDES,
BUT IS NOT LIMITED TO THE DELAWARE ESTUARY. ON RIVERS, THE ICE
THICKNESS IS ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME RESTRICTIONS IN THE FLOW. PER
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ICE ANALYSIS DATA, THE DELAWARE RIVER IS
MOSTLY ICE COVERED FROM THE ENTRANCE TO DELAWARE BAY NORTHWARD,
OR UPSTREAM, TO AT LEAST WASHINGTON CROSSING. DELAWARE BAY HAS
QUITE A BIT OF ICE COVER, HOWEVER SATELLITE IMAGERY THE LAST FEW
DAYS HAS SHOWN ICING FLOWING OUT OF DELAWARE BAY INTO THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN.
THE MOST COMMON WAYS RIVER ICE CAN BREAK UP IS EITHER THROUGH A
THERMAL OR MECHANICAL MEANS. WE WOULD LIKE TO SEE TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE 40S FOR A FEW DAYS, WHICH PARTS OF THE REGION ARE
FORECAST TO GET TO ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SOME AREAS
GETTING INTO THE 50S EARLY NEXT WEEK. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL,
PRODUCING RIVER RISES, CAN ALSO BREAK UP ICE BUT THAT IS NOT IN
THE FORECAST THIS WEEK.
AS A RESULT, ICE COVER WILL CONTINUE. THERE MAY BE A PAUSE IN
THE ICE GROWTH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS TEMPERATURES RISE TO
AND ABOVE FREEZING, HOWEVER TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT SOME ICE EXPANSION.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA
CRITERIA. HOWEVER THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF
LOW PRESSURE SLIDING BY TO OUR SOUTH.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...GORSE/JOHNSON/STAARMANN
AVIATION...JOHNSON/RCM/STAARMANN
MARINE...JOHNSON/RCM/STAARMANN
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