973
FXUS61 KPHI 130849
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
349 AM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SNOW CHANCES HAVE INCREASED FOR TONIGHT, MAINLY NORTH OF I-78. NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED THOUGH.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARDS THE CONSENSUS OF A
MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK FOR THE SUNDAY-MONDAY SYSTEM, RESULTING IN
LESS IMPACTS FOR OUR REGION.
THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH A SYSTEM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1...ONE LAST DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MILDER TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, THEN
TEMPERATURES LIKELY GET ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
2. SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING, MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-195 IN NEW JERSEY AND NORTH OF
I-78 IN PENNSYLVANIA
3. ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION, PRIMARILY FOR THE COASTAL
PLAINS, IS LIKELY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLIDING SOUTH OF OUR REGION.
4. THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION, PRIMARILY FOR AREAS NORTH
OF THE PA TURNPIKE/195 CORRIDOR, COMES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...ONE LAST DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT. MILDER TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND, THEN TEMPERATURES LIKELY GET ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
AFTER A VERY LONG STRETCH OF TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL, CHANGE IS ON
THE HORIZON. HOWEVER, ONE LAST CHILLY DAY OF TEMPERATURES BELOW
NORMAL ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY. WHILE SKIES WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY FOR
TODAY, HIGHS ONLY TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S. CLOUDS INCREASE
AHEAD OF A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT, THOUGH LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS AND LOW 20S, WHICH IS ABOUT 2 TO 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION.
THE AIRMASS OVER THE AREA MODERATES THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO
THE MID/UPPER 40S SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS, AT LEAST FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT, WILL BE BELOW FREEZING (IN THE 20S). THE OVERALL
MODERATING TREND LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH LOW
PRESSURE SLIDING BY TO OUR SOUTH LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY COULD
RESULT IN SOME COOLING ON SUNDAY (SEE KEY MESSAGE 3 BELOW).
REGARDLESS OF WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE STORM, IT WILL HAVE DEPARTED
BY NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS BY THEN LOOKING TO BE
WELL INTO THE 40S FOR MOST AREAS WITH EVEN SOME 50S OVER PARTS
OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO BEGIN RISING ABOVE
FREEZING NEXT WEEK, WHICH IS ANTICIPATED TO RESULT IN MORE
SUBSTANTIAL MELTING OF THE STUBBORN SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2... SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING, MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-195 IN NEW JERSEY AND
NORTH OF I-78 IN PENNSYLVANIA.
A FAST MOVING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SPARK SOME SNOW
SHOWERS WHICH COULD PROGRESS AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS NORTHERN NEW JERSEY
VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. INITIALLY DRY AIR IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD RESULT IN MOSTLY VIRGA. HOWEVER, SOME MODEL
SOUNDINGS DEPICT THAT DRY AIR WILL ERODE AND SNOW WILL BEGIN TO
REACH THE SURFACE. THE 00Z RUNS OVERALL WERE MORE ROBUST WITH
SNOWFALL, SO POPS WERE INCREASED TO AROUND 30-50% FOR AREAS NORTH OF
I-78 IN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTH OF I-195 IN NEW JERSEY. THAT BEING
SAID, IT IS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM, SO THE WINDOW FOR ACCUMULATING
SNOW FROM THESE SHOWERS IS QUITE BRIEF, AND AS MENTIONED ABOVE, SOME
DRY AIR WILL INITIALLY MAKE IT TOUGH FOR SNOW TO MAKE IT TO THE
SURFACE. THUS, ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE A FEW TENTHS
OF AN INCH AT MOST.
OVERALL, THIS IS UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD IMPACTS, BUT WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND TEENS AS THE SNOW IS FALLING, IF THERE
ARE ANY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THEN UNTREATED SURFACES COULD BE
SLIPPERY. BY THE TIME THE SUN COMES UP ON SATURDAY, PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 3...ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION, PRIMARILY FOR THE COASTAL
PLAINS, IS LIKELY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLIDING SOUTH OF OUR REGION.
THERE WERE MINOR CHANGES IN MODEL DEPICTIONS OF THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY SYSTEM WITH A CONTINUED MOVE TOWARDS THE
CONSENSUS FOR A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK THAT DOES NOT PHASE WITH
THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH (AT LEAST WHILE IT IS NEAR OUR
REGION) RESULTING IN LESS IMPACTS FOR OUR REGION. THESE
SOLUTIONS FAVOR A WARMER, FASTER SYSTEM, WITH PRECIPITATION
PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL PLAINS. THIS SOLUTION WOULD
RESULT IN LITTLE, IF ANY, SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE, ESPECIALLY IF IT IS CONFINED ONLY TO THE COASTAL PLAINS
WOULD BE PRIMARILY RAIN, BUT COULD START OFF AS A RAIN SNOW MIX.
FURTHER WORKING AGAINST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IS THE FACT THAT THE
AIR MASS IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IS MILDER THAN WHAT WE
HAVE SEEN WITH THE LAST FEW SYSTEMS. OVERALL, WITH THE MODELS
CONTINUING TO COALESCE, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN, SO POPS WERE INCREASED
IN THIS AREA.
THAT BEING SAID, THERE ARE STILL A FEW MODELS THAT DEPICT THE
STRONGER AND FURTHER NORTH SOLUTION, MOST NOTABLY THE AI-ECMWF.
ADDITIONALLY, IF THE PRECIPITATION EXTENDS OUTSIDE OF THE
COASTAL PLAINS, THEN PRECIPITATION IN THOSE AREAS IS MORE LIKELY
TO BE SNOW FOR LONGER. THEREFORE, STAYED WITH THE BLEND OF
GUIDANCE FOR THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGE 4...THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION, PRIMARILY FOR
AREAS NORTH OF THE PA TURNPIKE/195 CORRIDOR, COMES WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WE ARE WATCHING IS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH
COULD BE CROSSING THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
OF NEXT WEEK. UNLIKE THE LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM, THE CENTER OF THIS
LOW IS CURRENTLY DEPICTED CROSSING NORTH OF OUR REGION. THIS
WOULD FAVOR PRECIPITATION NORTH OF THE PA TURNPIKE/195 CORRIDOR.
THAT BEING SAID, OUR REGION WOULD BE IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH
THIS TRACK, WHICH WOULD FAVOR MOSTLY, IF NOT ALL, RAIN.
THE LATEST TRENDS DO BRING THE LOW A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS, WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY ALLOW FOR SOME MIXING AT
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NEW
JERSEY. ADDITIONALLY, A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WOULD POTENTIALLY
BRING RAIN INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS WELL.
AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 12Z...VFR WITH CIGS GENERALLY ABOVE FL040. NORTHWEST WINDS
REMAINING NEAR 10 KTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TODAY...VFR. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR. WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 KT OR LESS. 15-20%
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AT KTTN/KABE WHICH COULD RESULT IN BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS DOWN TO MVFR. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR ARE POSSIBLE
WITH RAIN AND SNOW. KMIV AND KACY HAVE THE HIGHEST RISK OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS.
TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED.
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WEST/NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 8-15 KT AND SEAS 1 TO 3 FEET.
REGARDING THE RIVER/BAY ICE...SIGNIFICANT ICE COVER CONTINUES ACROSS
MANY AREA BAY WATERS AND INLAND ESTUARIES. THIS INCLUDES, BUT IS NOT
LIMITED TO THE DELAWARE ESTUARY. ON RIVERS, THE ICE THICKNESS IS
ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME RESTRICTIONS IN THE FLOW. PER SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND ICE ANALYSIS DATA, THE DELAWARE RIVER IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED FROM
THE ENTRANCE TO DELAWARE BAY NORTHWARD, OR UPSTREAM, TO AT LEAST
WASHINGTON CROSSING. DELAWARE BAY HAS QUITE A BIT OF ICE COVER,
HOWEVER SATELLITE IMAGERY THE LAST FEW DAYS HAS SHOWN ICING FLOWING
OUT OF DELAWARE BAY INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
THE MOST COMMON WAYS RIVER ICE CAN BREAK UP IS EITHER THROUGH A
THERMAL OR MECHANICAL MEANS. WE WOULD LIKE TO SEE TEMPERATURES RISE
INTO THE 40S FOR A FEW DAYS, WHICH PARTS OF THE REGION ARE FORECAST
TO GET TO ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SOME AREAS GETTING INTO
THE 50S EARLY NEXT WEEK. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL, PRODUCING RIVER
RISES, CAN ALSO BREAK UP ICE BUT THAT IS NOT IN THE FORECAST THIS
WEEK.
AS A RESULT, ICE COVER WILL CONTINUE. THERE MAY BE A PAUSE IN THE
ICE GROWTH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AS TEMPERATURES RISE TO AND
ABOVE FREEZING, HOWEVER TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT SOME ICE EXPANSION.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA
CRITERIA. HOWEVER THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF
LOW PRESSURE SLIDING BY TO OUR SOUTH.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AKL/HOEFLICH
AVIATION...AKL/HOEFLICH
MARINE...AKL/HOEFLICH
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