591
FXUS61 KPHI 132323
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
623 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR LOW PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE AREA LATE NEXT
WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
1. SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING, MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-195 IN NEW JERSEY
AND NORTH OF I-78 IN PENNSYLVANIA.
2. LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY, BRINGING SOME RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA.
3. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
4. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE AREA LATE NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING, MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-195 IN NEW JERSEY
AND NORTH OF I-78 IN PENNSYLVANIA.
A FAST MOVING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SPARK SOME SNOW
SHOWERS WHICH COULD PROGRESS AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. INITIALLY
DRY AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD RESULT IN MOSTLY VIRGA.
HOWEVER, SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT THAT DRY AIR WILL ERODE AND
SNOW WILL BEGIN TO REACH THE SURFACE. HI RES GUIDANCE WAS LESS
BULLISH ON PRECIPITATION COVERAGE, SO POPS WERE LOWERED TO
AROUND 20-30%. GIVEN THE FAST MOVING NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM, THE
WINDOW FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM THESE SHOWERS IS QUITE BRIEF,
THUS, ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH AT MOST.
OVERALL, THIS IS UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD IMPACTS, BUT
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND TEENS AS THE SNOW IS FALLING,
IF THERE ARE ANY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THEN UNTREATED SURFACES
COULD BE SLIPPERY. BY THE TIME THE SUN COMES UP ON SATURDAY,
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR ONE MORE NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOW 20S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, BRINGING SOME RAIN AND SNOW TO THE
AREA.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES THIS
WEEKEND, EMERGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY EVENING. A WARM
FRONT WILL EXTEND OUT FROM THIS LOW, AND OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL
DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION WILL IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, TAPERING OFF
MONDAY MORNING. THE BIG QUESTION IS GOING TO BE HOW FAR NORTH
THE PRECIPITATION GETS. 12Z/13 NAM PRETTY MUCH HAS PRECIPITATION
CONFINED TO DELMARVA, WHILE THE 12Z/13 GFS IS A BIT FARTHER
NORTH WITH HEAVIER QPF IN DELMARVA, AND PRECIPITATION AS FAR
NORTH AS INTO THE LEHIGH VALLEY. THE 12Z/CMC IS SIMILAR TO THE
NAM IN THAT IT KEEPS THE SYSTEM SOUTH. IN TERMS OF P- TYPE,
GENERALLY LOOKING AT RAIN IN DELMARVA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY, AND SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. 12Z/ECMWF
IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS, AND THE 12Z ECMWF-AI REMAINS AN OUTLIER
PRODUCING WARNING LEVEL SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION. SINCE IT IS
AN EXTREME OUTLIER, WILL NOT FACTOR THE ECMWF-AI IN THE
FORECAST. WITH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS HEAVIER IN THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, GENERALLY EXPECTING LESS THAN AN INCH OF
SNOW WHERE SNOW FALLS, MOSTLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW THE NBM GUIDANCE FOR THIS TIMEFRAME DUE
TO THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGE 3...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE AREA BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON MONDAY, THEN
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OFFSHORE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RETURN
FLOW SETS UP AT THE SURFACE AND ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ALOFT. THIS
ALLOWS FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION TO DEVELOP, AND TEMPERATURES WILL
FINALLY PUSH TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. NORMAL HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOS TO THE
LOW 40S IN THE LEHIGH VALLEY TO THE MID 40S ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR, DELAWARE VALLEY, AND INTO SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY, AND IN
THE MID 40S IN SOUTHERN DELMARVA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY
RANGE FROM THE MID 40S OR SO IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND LEHIGH
VALLEY TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR,
DELAWARE VALLEY, AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
MID AND UPPER 50S IN SOUTHERN DELMARVA. LOWS FOR THE MOST PART
WILL BE DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. ALTHOUGH RELATIVELY WARM
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR, IT WILL ALSO REMAIN CLOUDY. THE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME OF THE ABUNDANT SNOWPACK TO
START TO MELT, BUT IT MAY NOT MELT AS MUCH AS IT COULD DUE TO
THE CLOUDY SKIES.
KEY MESSAGE 4...SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE
AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.
CONDITIONS THEN TURN SOMEWHAT ACTIVE FOR THE MIDDLE TO THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH
PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE PLAIN RAIN ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW,
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN, ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS, FAR NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY, AND THE LEHIGH VALLEY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KT OR
LESS. 15-20% CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AT KTTN/KABE WHICH
COULD RESULT IN BRIEF RESTRICTIONS DOWN TO MVFR. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.
SATURDAY...VFR. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR OR IFR IN RA OR SN. BEST CHANCES
FOR SN WILL BE AT KRDG/KABE/KTTN, RA AND SN AT KPHL/KILG, AND RA
AT KMIV/KACY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME, MOSTLY IN RA.
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT AND SEAS 1 TO 3 FEET.
REGARDING THE RIVER ICE THREAT...ICE REMAINS ACROSS AREA BAY
WATERS AND INLAND ESTUARIES. THIS INCLUDES, BUT IS NOT LIMITED
TO THE DELAWARE ESTUARY. ON RIVERS, THE ICE HAS GROWN IN
THICKNESS ENOUGH TO START CAUSING RESTRICTIONS IN FLOW. AN
EXAMPLE OF THIS CAN BE SEEN AT THE TRENTON RIVER GAUGE. PER
SATELLITE IMAGERY, THE DELAWARE RIVER IS PRETTY MUCH ICE COVERED
FROM JUST SOUTH OF TRENTON UPSTREAM TO ABOUT WASHINGTON
CROSSING, THOUGH GROWTH HAS STALLED WITH WARMER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES.
THE MOST COMMON WAYS RIVER ICE CAN BREAK UP IS EITHER THROUGH A
THERMAL OR MECHANICAL MEANS. WE WOULD LIKE TO SEE TEMPERATURES
RISE INTO THE 40S FOR A FEW DAYS, WHICH IS FORECAST THIS WEEKEND
AND INTO NEXT WEEK. RAINFALL, PRODUCING RIVER RISES, CAN ALSO
BREAK UP ICE. THE CURRENT FORECAST DOES INCLUDE LIGHT RAINFALL
ACROSS THE DELAWARE BAY AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH LIGHT
SNOWFALL FOR THE DELAWARE RIVER.
WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE FREEZING, BUT
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW FREEZING, WE HAVE SEEN
ICE GROWTH STALL WITH SOME MINOR IMPROVEMENTS IN SOME AREAS,
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERWAYS GIVEN THE WARMER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES. WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 40S
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT DURING THIS STRETCH.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MJL/MPS
AVIATION...KRUZDLO/MJL/MPS
MARINE...MJL/MPS
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