075
FXUS61 KPHI 141104
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
604 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES WITH THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY AS SOME OF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS A MORE
NORTHERN SOLUTION.
KEY MESSAGES
1. LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY, BRINGING SOME RAIN AND SNOW TO THE AREA.
2. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.
3. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE AREA LATE NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY, BRINGING SOME RAIN AND SNOW TO THE
AREA.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES THIS
WEEKEND, EMERGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY EVENING. A WARM
FRONT WILL EXTEND OUT FROM THIS LOW, AND OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL
DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION WILL IMPACT THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT, TAPERING OFF
MONDAY MORNING. THE BIG QUESTION REMAINS HOW FAR NORTH THE
PRECIPITATION GETS. THE LATEST 00Z GUIDANCE FEATURES AN
INTERESTING TREND WITH THE GFS NOW JOINING MUCH CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF-AI, WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY THE FURTHEST NORTH
SOLUTION, WITH PRECIPITATION FALLING REGIONWIDE, AND THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE 00Z NAM AND
CMC CONTINUE TO LARGELY CONFINE THE MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION TO
THE COASTAL PLAIN AND POINTS SOUTH. IN TERMS OF P- TYPE,
GENERALLY LOOKING AT RAIN IN DELMARVA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY, AND SNOW ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. WITH THE
SIGNIFICANT UPTICK IN QPF, THE OOZ GFS NOW HAS MORE SNOWFALL
THAN EVEN THE ECMWF-AI, AS IT IS SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER. THE GFS
SOLUTION DOES SEEM UNREALISTIC GIVEN THERE WILL BE LITTLE
ANTECEDENT COLD AIR IN THE REGION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. QPF
FORECAST AMOUNTS WERE TRENDED UPWARD SLIGHTLY, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN. HOWEVER, STILL GENERALLY EXPECTING
AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW OR LESS WHERE SNOW FALLS, GIVEN MARGINAL
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE LOW 30S, AND SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS
WELL UNDER 10:1 LIKELY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE AREA BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON MONDAY, THEN
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OFFSHORE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RETURN
FLOW SETS UP AT THE SURFACE AND ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ALOFT. THIS
ALLOWS FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION TO DEVELOP, AND TEMPERATURES WILL
FINALLY PUSH TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR RANGE FROM THE MID 30S IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOS TO THE
LOW 40S IN THE LEHIGH VALLEY TO THE MID 40S ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR, AND AREAS SOUTHEASTWARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WILL MOSTLY BE 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE THIS RANGE, FROM
THE MID 40S OR SO IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY TO
THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR, DELAWARE
VALLEY, AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID AND
UPPER 50S IN SOUTHERN DELMARVA. LOWS FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE
DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. ALTHOUGH RELATIVELY WARM FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR, IT WILL ALSO REMAIN CLOUDY. THE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME OF THE ABUNDANT SNOWPACK TO START TO MELT,
BUT IT MAY NOT MELT AS MUCH AS IT COULD DUE TO THE CLOUDY
SKIES.
KEY MESSAGE 3...SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY AFFECT THE
AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.
CONDITIONS THEN TURN SOMEWHAT ACTIVE FOR THE MIDDLE TO THE END
OF NEXT WEEK. THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS THROUGH
PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO BE PLAIN RAIN ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW,
POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN, ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS, FAR NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY, AND THE LEHIGH VALLEY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...VFR. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE MORNING BECOME MORE
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON, AND WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
10 KT BY 16Z-18Z. GUSTS NEAR 20 KT POSSIBLE, MAINLY AT KACY.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNDER 5 KT,
THOUGH A NORTH/NORTHWEST DIRECTION MAY BE FAVORED AT TIMES.
SLIGHT CHANCE (15-20%) OF FOG DEVELOPING BRINGING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS BUT CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN ANY
TAF AT THIS TIME. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SUNDAY...VFR TO START BUT CONDITIONS DIMINISH DOWN TO MVFR/IFR
LATER IN THE DAY WITH RAIN AND SNOW ARRIVING. EAST WINDS AROUND
5 KT. LOW CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MVFR OR IFR IN RA OR SN. BEST
CHANCES FOR SN WILL BE AT KRDG/KABE/KTTN, RA AND SN AT
KPHL/KILG, AND RA AT KMIV/KACY.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR.
WEDNESDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME, MOSTLY IN RA.
MARINE
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10-15 KT THROUGH TODAY, DECREASING TO UNDER 10 KT TONIGHT.
SEAS 1 TO 2 FEET.
REGARDING THE RIVER/BAY ICE...ICE COVER CONTINUES ACROSS MANY AREA
BAY WATERS AND INLAND ESTUARIES. THIS INCLUDES, BUT IS NOT LIMITED
TO THE DELAWARE ESTUARY. ON RIVERS, THE ICE THICKNESS IS ENOUGH TO
CAUSE SOME RESTRICTIONS IN THE FLOW. PER SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ICE
ANALYSIS DATA, THE DELAWARE RIVER IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED FROM THE
DELAWARE MEMORIAL BRIDGE UPSTREAM, TO AT LEAST WASHINGTON CROSSING,
THOUGH WE ARE SEEING IMPROVEMENT WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL
ONLY GET BETTER WITH WARMER DAYS AHEAD.
ACCORDING TO LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE NATIONAL ICE CENTER,
DELAWARE BAY IS ACTUALLY MAINLY ICE-FREE WITH LESS THAN 10%
COVERAGE OF ICE.
THE MOST COMMON WAYS RIVER ICE CAN BREAK UP IS EITHER THROUGH A
THERMAL OR MECHANICAL MEANS. WE WOULD LIKE TO SEE TEMPERATURES RISE
INTO THE 40S FOR A FEW DAYS, WHICH PARTS OF THE REGION ARE FORECAST
TO GET TO ONCE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND WITH SOME AREAS GETTING INTO THE
50S EARLY NEXT WEEK. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL, PRODUCING RIVER RISES,
CAN ALSO BREAK UP ICE BUT THAT IS NOT IN THE FORECAST THIS WEEK.
AS A RESULT, ICE COVER WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR
SO AND WE ARE ALREADY SEEING MAJOR IMPROVEMENT IN DELAWARE BAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MONDAY...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH SEAS POTENTIALLY BUILDING
TO AROUND 5 FEET.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AKL/HOEFLICH
AVIATION...AKL/HOEFLICH
MARINE...AKL/HOEFLICH
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