793
FXUS61 KPHI 161148
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
648 AM EST MON FEB 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE SHIFTED A BIT NORTH FOR THE WEDNESDAY-
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SYSTEM. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM A QUARTER TO HALF AN
INCH EXPECTED NEAR AND NORTH OF I-78, WITH DIMINISHING AMOUNTS
SOUTH. CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN THIS SYSTEM BEING AN ALL-RAIN EVENT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK, WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. SNOW FORECAST REMAINS ON TAP FOR TONIGHT WITH THE
HIGHEST TOTALS NORTH OF THE I-195 AND PA TURNPIKE CORRIDORS.
KEY MESSAGES
1. HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA TODAY. A WEAK LOW
PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
2..ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK AND
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
3...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN TAKES HOLD FOR THIS WEEK WITH MULTIPLE
CHANCES FOR RAIN, AND POTENTIALLY SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR NORTHERN AREAS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA TODAY. A WEAK LOW
PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA TODAY, BUT A PROLONGED
ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP SKIES CLOUDY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEVELOPING HIGH AND THE LOW
PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL LEAD TO WINDS AROUND 10-15 MPH THIS
MORNING, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-30 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST.
WINDS DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE HIGH
STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD. HIGHS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW 40S, WHICH ARE STILL SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
A WEAK LOW PASSES TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
DIVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST.
THIS SYSTEM MAY BE ABLE TO RESULT IN SOME LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION IN OUR NORTHERN AREAS. AN AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE
(20%) POPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. WHEN MENTIONING THIS AS LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION, IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO INCLUDE SNOW, FREEZING
RAIN/DRIZZLE, AND PLAIN RAIN. DUE TO THE MIXED PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL, THE TIMEFRAME BEARS WATCHING. OVERALL THOUGH, THE
LIGHT PRECIPITATION LOOKS RELATIVELY UNIMPACTFUL GIVEN THE
LIMITED COVERAGE OF IT.
KEY MESSAGE 2..ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF
THIS WEEK AND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS MOVING OFFSHORE TUESDAY LEADS TO A SOUTHWEST
WIND WITH ITS RETURN FLOW AND REMAINS OFFSHORE INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS
LEADS TO WARM AIR ADVECTION AND TEMPERATURES TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. BEYOND THIS, MULTIPLE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION ALLOWING FOR MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR WARM AIR ADVECTION
KEEPING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
FOR THE SPECIFICS ON TEMPERATURES, HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO
LOW 50S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY GET INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH SOME
SPOTS POTENTIALLY GETTING TO 60 IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF DELMARVA.
IN TERMS OF OVERNIGHT LOWS, AFTER TONIGHT, MOST LOCATIONS WILL STAY
ABOVE FREEZING. LOWS RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
COULD GET BACK BELOW FREEZING ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
SUNDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REGRESS NEAR NORMAL LEVELS PERHAPS BY SUNDAY,
BUT MORE LIKELY NEXT WEEK.
AFTER OVER TWO WEEKS NOW WITH SNOW ON THE GROUND, THESE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW THE SNOWPACK TO MELT QUICKER AND MOST SPOTS
LIKELY WILL BE RID OF SNOW BY THIS WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 3...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN TAKES HOLD FOR THIS WEEK WITH
MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN, AND POTENTIALLY SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR NORTHERN AREAS.
DURING THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND, THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE AREAS
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN BUT SOME
WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR
NORTHERN AREAS AT TIMES.
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. AT THE
SURFACE, THERE WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE MIDWEST THAT
DRAGS A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOME
RAIN FOR THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED MORE IN THE DIRECTION OF THIS BEING AN ALL RAIN
EVENT FOR OUR AREA. GUIDANCE HAS ALSO TRENDED A BIT NORTH WITH QPF
AMOUNTS, WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS NORTH OF I-78. HOWEVER, QPF
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE BOARD LOOK RATHER LIGHT WITH THE SHIFT IN HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS NORTH. NBM PROBABILITY OVER 1 INCH IS LESS THAN 5%.
PROBABILITY OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER HALF AN INCH ARE AROUND 15-30%
NORTH OF I-78 WITH LESS THAN 10% SOUTH. OUR AREA COULD CERTAINLY USE
SOME RAIN AND THIS COULD BE THE FIRST MEASURABLE RAIN FOR SOME IN
ALMOST A MONTH OR MORE (GIVEN HOW COLD IT HAS BEEN, PRECIPITATION
TYPE HAS BEEN ALL SNOW). WE THEN STAY IN THE WARM SECTOR THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK FOR THE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS IS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
ORIGINATING FROM THE MIDWEST AND MOVING TOWARDS OUR AREA. JUST LIKE
THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM, THIS SHOULD MAINLY BE AN ALL RAIN EVENT FOR
MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE REGION GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE LOW. HOWEVER,
IF MORE PRECIPITATION COMES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, HIGHER
ELEVATION AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND FAR NORTHERN NJ COULD
SEE SOME SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN. NBM PROBABILITY OF QPF OVER 1 INCH
IS STILL ON THE LOWER SIDE AT AROUND 15-25%. THE DETAILS WILL BE
IRONED OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, ESPECIALLY ONCE THE TIMING
COMES MORE INTO FOCUS.
BEYOND THIS, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR YET ANOTHER SYSTEM TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEKEND BUT THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT IS AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
GUIDANCE REMAINS ALL OVER THE PLACE, RANGING FROM AN ALL RAIN EVENT
TO A STORM WITH MEASURABLE SNOWFALL. TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE THOUGH
ON WHAT EXACTLY PRECIPITATION TYPE AND IMPACTS WOULD BE.
OVERALL, THESE SYSTEMS WILL BRING PRIMARILY RAIN TO MOST OF THE
AREA, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION IN FAR NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY AND THE SOUTHERN POCONOS DEPENDING ON TIMING. ONE KEY NOTE
WITH THESE SYSTEMS, WE ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTING MODERATE OR MAJOR
IMPACTS. IN FACT, FOR MOST OF THE REGION, IT WILL BE MORE OF A
BENEFICIAL RAIN.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS...
TODAY...IFR CIGS IN THE MORNING, SLOWLY LIFTING TO MVFR IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW QUICKLY IT LIFTS, ESPECIALLY
TO VFR TOWARDS THE EVENING. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KT, WITH GUSTS UP
TO AROUND 20 KTS POSSIBLE AT KMIV/KACY, BECOMING LGT/VRB LATE.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE, OVERALL, LOW CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS.
TONIGHT...MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY REDEVELOPING WITH LOW
STRATUS. HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD FOR IFR CONDITIONS ARE AT KABE AND
KRDG. KACY AND KMIV MAY REMAIN VFR. SSW WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS OR
LESS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE, OVERALL, LOW CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH LOW CIGS LIKELY HANGING
AROUND THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN MOVING THROUGH.
WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE NEAR KRDG/KABE.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...RESTRICTIONS LIKELY (60-70%) WITH PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS HANGING AROUND.
MARINE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR ATLANTIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS.
NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25
KT. SEAS BUILD TO AROUND 5 FEET. THOUGH WINDS DIMINISH LATE THIS
MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS, SEAS ON THE OCEAN REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH TONIGHT, AROUND 5-7 FEET. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON THE DELAWARE
BAY THOUGH WINDS MAY BRIEFLY GUST AROUND 20-25 KNOTS THIS
MORNING.
VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN FOG, POTENTIALLY CONTINUING THROUGH LATE
THIS MORNING.
REGARDING THE RIVER/BAY ICE...ICE COVER CONTINUES ACROSS MANY AREA
BAY WATERS AND INLAND ESTUARIES. THIS INCLUDES, BUT IS NOT LIMITED
TO THE DELAWARE ESTUARY. ON RIVERS, THE ICE THICKNESS IS ENOUGH TO
CAUSE SOME RESTRICTIONS IN THE FLOW. PER SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ICE
ANALYSIS DATA, THE DELAWARE RIVER IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED FROM THE
DELAWARE MEMORIAL BRIDGE UPSTREAM, TO AT LEAST WASHINGTON CROSSING,
THOUGH WE ARE SEEING IMPROVEMENT WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL
ONLY GET BETTER WITH WARMER DAYS AHEAD.
ACCORDING TO LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE NATIONAL ICE CENTER, DELAWARE
BAY IS ACTUALLY MAINLY ICE-FREE WITH LESS THAN 10% COVERAGE OF ICE.
THE MOST COMMON WAYS RIVER ICE CAN BREAK UP IS EITHER THROUGH A
THERMAL OR MECHANICAL MEANS. WE WOULD LIKE TO SEE TEMPERATURES RISE
INTO THE 40S FOR A FEW DAYS, WHICH PARTS OF THE REGION ARE FORECAST
TO CONTINUE TO GET TO THIS WEEK WITH SOME AREAS GETTING INTO THE 50S
EARLY THIS WEEK. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL, PRODUCING RIVER RISES, CAN
ALSO BREAK UP ICE BUT THAT IS NOT IN THE FORECAST THIS WEEK.
AS A RESULT, ICE COVER WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR
SO AND WE ARE ALREADY SEEING MAJOR IMPROVEMENT IN DELAWARE BAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OCEAN ZONES
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE WELL BELOW SCA LEVELS BUT
SEAS OF 4 TO 7 FEET EXPECTED. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON DELAWARE BAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT...LINGERING 5 FOOT SEAS POSSIBLE (40-50%) COULD RESULT
IN AN EXTENSION TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE OCEAN. SUB-SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON DELAWARE BAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE (50%) AS
SEAS COULD GET NEAR 5 FEET AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KT.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
EQUIPMENT
KDIX WILL REMAIN OUT OF SERVICE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AND
POSSIBLY TUESDAY.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
DISCUSSION...AKL/HOEFLICH
AVIATION...AKL/HOEFLICH
MARINE...AKL/HOEFLICH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page