839
FXUS61 KPHI 171725
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1225 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT POTENTIALLY
REDUCING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT STILL LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL.
REFINED THE DETAILS OF THE TWO SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH, THE
FIRST ON WEDNESDAY - WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE SECOND FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE ALL RAIN,
MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WHILE THE LATE WEEK
SYSTEM WILL BE A MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION NORTH OF I-78.
SOME MORE INFORMATION WRITTEN BELOW ON THE LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM.
KEY MESSAGES
1.LIGHT DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING.
2. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THIS
WEEK AND MAY CONTINUE INTO THE BEGINNING OF THIS WEEKEND.
HOWEVER, A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT COULD LIMIT TEMPERATURES A BIT.
3...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN TAKES HOLD FOR THIS WEEK WITH MULTIPLE
CHANCES FOR RAIN, AND POTENTIALLY SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR NORTHERN AREAS. WATCHING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A MORE IMPACTFUL SYSTEM LATER THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...LIGHT DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING.
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONTS MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND NY STATE THIS MORNING. IT WILL KEEP SOME
LIGHT DRIZZLE AND FOG WITH AREAS OF FREEZING FOG WILL BE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL
ALLOW FOR ONLY SLOW IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE MORNING. BEWARE OF
PATCHY BLACK ICE ON ANY UNTREATED ROADS. THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
PRECLUDE ANY DENSE FOG, BUT LOWER VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE FOR
THE N/W COUNTIES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR
THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND MAY CONTINUE INTO THE BEGINNING OF
THIS WEEKEND. HOWEVER, A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT COULD LIMIT
TEMPERATURES A BIT.
HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS MOVING OFFSHORE TODAY LEADS RETURN FLOW
SETTING UP AND WARM SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS LEADS TO A
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME AND TEMPERATURES TRENDING ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. BEYOND THIS, MULTIPLE SYSTEMS MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION ALLOWING FOR MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR WARM AIR
ADVECTION KEEPING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES GOING EVEN INTO
POTENTIALLY THIS WEEKEND.
HOWEVER, A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BRINGING
SOME RAIN AND TEMPERATURES NEAR 60 OVER DELMARVA. SOME GUIDANCE
HAS THIS WARM FRONT GETTING NORTH OF THE REGION, THEN SINKING
BACK SOUTHWARD IN THE FORM OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTH, FOSTERING IN A
COOLER MARITIME AIRMASS WITH THE NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW.
HOWEVER, WHILE TEMPERATURES ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL BE COOLER, THEY SHOULD STILL BE NEAR OR EVEN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. SOUTH OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, HIGHS SHOULD GET INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOW TO MID
50S. THE PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT LIKELY WILL BISECT THE AREA, AND THE
QUESTION REMAINS HOW FAR SOUTH DOES IT GO AND WHERE IT SETS UP.
THAT SHOULD BE IRONED OUT IN THE COMING DAYS.
IN TERMS OF OVERNIGHT LOWS, IT WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE BACKDOOR
FRONT SETS UP. NEAR AND NORTH OF THE FRONT, LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S. THIS STILL WOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MID-FEBURARY. SOUTH OF THE FRONT, LOWS STAY ABOVE FREEZING AND
EVEN CAN STAY IN THE 40S OVER DELMARVA.
AFTER OVER TWO WEEKS NOW WITH SNOW ON THE GROUND, THESE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW THE SNOWPACK TO MELT QUICKER.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND, BUT COULD REGRESS TO NEAR OR EVEN BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE BACK HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 3...AN UNSETTLED PATTERN TAKES HOLD FOR THIS WEEK
WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN, AND POTENTIALLY SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR NORTHERN AREAS.
WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE IMPACTFUL SYSTEM LATER THIS
WEEKEND.
DURING THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND, THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE AREAS
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN BUT SOME
WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR
NORTHERN AREAS AT TIMES.
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. AT
THE SURFACE, THERE WILL BE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
MIDWEST THAT DRAGS A WARM FRONT NORTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY WHICH
WILL RESULT IN SOME RAIN FOR THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO LEAN IN THE
DIRECTION OF THIS BEING AN ALL RAIN EVENT FOR OUR AREA. HIGHEST
QPF AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO TREND NORTH AND NOW, AREAS IN SOUTHERN
DELAWARE COULD STAY DRY. CURRENT FORECAST HAS ABOUT A TENTH TO
QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN FROM I-78 NORTHWARD, WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO HALF AN INCH POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS AND FAR NORTHERN NJ. SOUTH OF I-78, AMOUNTS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. OVERALL, THIS EVENT DOES
NOT LOOK TO BE VERY IMPACTFUL WITH LIGHT RAIN FOR THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA AND LACK OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION. OUR AREA
COULD CERTAINLY USE SOME RAIN AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE AT
LEAST SOME BENEFICIAL RAIN FOR THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA.
THE WARM FRONT THAT LIFTS THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WILL GET NORTH OF
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW THAT THE FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY IN THE FORM OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH, FOSTERING IN A COOLER
MARITIME AIRMASS VIA NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE BACKDOOR FRONT GOES, BUT NEAR
AND NORTH OF THE FRONT, SOME LIGHT SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ARE POSSIBLE
FOR THURSDAY.
ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK FOR THE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS IS ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ORIGINATING FROM THE MIDWEST AND MOVING TOWARDS OUR AREA.
JUST LIKE THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM, THIS LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A RAIN
EVENT FOR MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, GIVEN SLIGHTLY LOWER
TEMPERATURES NOW FORECAST FOR THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIMEFRAME,
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION MAINLY FOR
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN NJ AND THE POCONOS. NBM
PROBABILITY OF QPF OVER 1 INCH IS AROUND 20-40%. THE DETAILS
WILL BE IRONED OUT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, ESPECIALLY ONCE
THE TIMING COMES MORE INTO FOCUS, THOUGH THERE SEEMS TO BE AN
INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF WINTRY PRECIP NORTH OF I-78.
BEYOND THIS, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR YET ANOTHER SYSTEM TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEKEND. OF THE UPCOMING SYSTEMS, THIS ONE HAS
THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SNOWFALL AND MORE IMPACTS.
HOWEVER, IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT. THIS IS STILL IN THE
MONITORING PHASE. MOST GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS SOME
SORT OF STORM DEVELOPING, THE QUESTION REMAINS THE TRACK. HOW
MUCH COLD AIR IN PLACE ALSO WILL REMAIN A QUESTION. LOOKING AT
SOME OF THE ENSEMBLES, THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR MEASURABLE
SNOWFALL, WITH THE GEFS PROBABILITY OF 4 INCHES OR MORE AROUND
10-20%. SOME ENSEMBLES SUCH AS THE CMC, EPS, AND EPS-AIFS ARE
MORE BULLISH WHICH IS A BIT CONCERNING. THE NBM PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE IS IN THE MIDDLE WITH 30-40% FOR 4 INCHES OR MORE. HOWEVER,
DAYS 6-7 ARE STILL VOLATILE AMONG BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SO NOTHING IS SET IN STONE, AND IT JUST BEARS
WATCHING AT THIS POINT. A SOLUTION LIKE THE 00Z ECMWF COULD PAN
OUT FOR EXAMPLE, WITH A COMPLETE MISS SOUTH AND EAST. LONG STORY
SHORT, ALL OUTCOMES ARE ON THE TABLE AT THE MOMENT BUT IT IS
STILL TOO EARLY TO SAY WHAT LEVEL IMPACTS ARE TO BE EXPECTED.
OVERALL, PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD
MAINLY JUST BE A BENEFICIAL RAIN GIVEN OUR REGION REMAINS IN
DIFFERENT LEVELS OF DROUGHT. HOWEVER, THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
WINTRY PRECIPITATION WITH THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM - ONLY FOR FAR
NORTHERN AREAS THOUGH. THE LATE WEEKEND STORM REMAINS IN THE
MONITORING THE SITUATION PHASE AS A RANGE OF OUTCOMES FROM AN
IMPACTFUL STORM TO COMPLETE MISS ALL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS...
REST OF TODAY...LIFR/IFR WILL BECOME MVFR, AND POSSIBLY EVEN VFR
BRIEFLY BY 00Z. SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT. LOW CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR INITIALLY, THEN IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS RETURN
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR VLIFR CONDS FROM 09Z-12Z. SW WIND 5 KT OR
LESS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WEDNESDAY...LIFR CIGS WITH IFR VSBYS THROUGH MIDDAY, THEN IFR
CONDS IN RA/BR/LOW CIGS IN THE AFTERNOON. SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUB-VFR CONDS IN BR AND LOW STRATUS. RA ENDS
IN THE EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED,
ESPECIALLY FROM KPHL ON NORTH. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE WITH LOW CLOUDS NEAR/NORTH OF THE
FRONT. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE EXACTLY THE BACKDOOR FRONT SETS
UP.
FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS
ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN EXPECTED WITH LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS AND
PATCHY FOG. SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION EARLY FRIDAY MORNING,
MAINLY FOR KTTN/KRDG/KABE.
SATURDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE (40-50%) WITH LINGERING SHOWERS
AND LOW CLOUDS AROUND.
MARINE
WINDS ARE LIGHT ACROSS THE WATERS, BUT SEAS REMAIN 5 TO 6 FT ACROSS
THE BUOYS AND THESE ENHANCED SEAS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING.
WE'LL CONTINUE WITH THE ONGOING SCA FLAG. AREAS OF FOG WILL BE
ACROSS THE WATERS INTO THE MORNING. SW TO W WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS WILL BE ON THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.
REGARDING THE RIVER/BAY ICE...ICE COVER CONTINUES ACROSS MANY AREA
BAY WATERS AND INLAND ESTUARIES. THIS INCLUDES, BUT IS NOT LIMITED
TO THE DELAWARE ESTUARY. ON RIVERS, THE ICE THICKNESS IS ENOUGH TO
CAUSE SOME RESTRICTIONS IN THE FLOW. PER SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ICE
ANALYSIS DATA, THE DELAWARE RIVER IS MOSTLY ICE COVERED FROM THE
DELAWARE MEMORIAL BRIDGE UPSTREAM, TO AT LEAST WASHINGTON CROSSING,
THOUGH WE ARE SEEING IMPROVEMENT WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES THAT WILL
ONLY GET BETTER WITH WARMER DAYS AHEAD.
ACCORDING TO LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE NATIONAL ICE CENTER, DELAWARE
BAY IS ACTUALLY MAINLY ICE-FREE WITH LESS THAN 10% COVERAGE OF ICE.
THE MOST COMMON WAYS RIVER ICE CAN BREAK UP IS EITHER THROUGH A
THERMAL OR MECHANICAL MEANS. WE WOULD LIKE TO SEE TEMPERATURES RISE
INTO THE 40S FOR A FEW DAYS, WHICH PARTS OF THE REGION ARE FORECAST
TO CONTINUE TO GET TO THIS WEEK WITH SOME AREAS GETTING INTO THE 50S
LATER THIS WEEK. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL, PRODUCING RIVER RISES,
CAN ALSO BREAK UP ICE BUT ONLY LIGHT RAIN AND LOWER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED.
AS A RESULT, ICE COVER WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR
SO AND WE ARE ALREADY SEEING MAJOR IMPROVEMENT IN DELAWARE BAY.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY
(60-80%) ON THE OCEAN AS SEAS INCREASE TO AROUND 5 TO 6 FEET.
WILL LET THE CURRENT SCA RUN ITS COURSE BEFORE ISSUING ONE IF
NEEDED FOR WEDNESDAY. NO HEADLINES EXPECTED ON DELAWARE BAY.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
EQUIPMENT
KDIX WILL REMAIN OUT OF SERVICE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ450>455.
DISCUSSION...HOEFLICH/OHARA
AVIATION...HOEFLICH/MPS/OHARA
MARINE...HOEFLICH/OHARA
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