796
FXUS61 KPHI 181505
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1005 AM EST WED FEB 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED. LIGHT RAIN AND MIST WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY, HOWEVER.
CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN SOME FREEZING RAIN ON THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-80 CORRIDOR. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
OVERNIGHT MODEL GUIDANCE SHIFTED A BIT SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE
POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGES
1. OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND MIST WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY.
2. A STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BRINGING RAIN. SOME WINTRY MIX/ICE POSSIBLE FOR MOSTLY THE I-80
CORRIDOR ON THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
3. A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM POSSIBLE SUNDAY, THEN MUCH COLDER
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND MIST WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE EAST COAST AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE IS
MOVING TOWARDS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES STATES. A WARM FRONT THAT
EXTENDS OUT FROM THE LOW WILL AFFECT OUR AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH AND A LOW LEVEL INVERSION
HAVE CREATED A WEALTH OF LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE MIDDLE ALTANTIC
REGION AND THE SNOW COVER IS ONLY PROMOTING THE INVERSION. WE'RE
GENERALLY ABOVE DENSE FOG ADVISORY CRITERIA SO HAVE ALLOWED IT
TO EXPIRE. HOWEVER, VISIBILITIES MAY REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW
ACROSS THE N/W COUNTIES THRU THE DAY. OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN
ALONG WITH THE FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION TODAY THEN DECREASE
TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH LATER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BRINGING RAIN. SOME WINTRY MIX/ICE POSSIBLE FOR MOSTLY
THE I-80 CORRIDOR ON THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA TO START
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD
LEAD TO A NORTHEASTERLY LOW- LEVEL FLOW AND KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOLER. AS OF NOW, THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF COLDER AIR DOES NOT
LOOK TO BE VERY STRONG, HOWEVER GIVEN CLOUD COVER, AND INCOMING
PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH A NORTHEAST SURFACE WIND, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. GIVEN THE
SETUP, WENT CLOSER TO THE NBM 10TH PERCENTILE FOR TEMPERATURES.
THE MILDER AIR WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FRONT, WITH THE
ACTUAL SURFACE FRONT LOOKING TO BE POSITIONED TO OUR WEST AND
SOUTH. THIS SETUP SHOULD LOCK IN LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG,
MAINLY ON THURSDAY MORNING, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE DENSE.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ONE LOW LOOKS TO TRACK ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES WITH ANOTHER ONE NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC. A ZONE OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED FRONT
WILL RESULT IN SOME OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION. IT LOOKS LIKE A
QUICK MOVING SYSTEM AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE ENERGY WITH THIS
BECOMES STRETCHED OUT WITH TIME WHICH WOULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF
OFF AND ON RAIN. HOWEVER, THIS LOOKS TO MAINLY BE A SOAKING
RAIN, BEGINNING THURSDAY EVENING WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS
CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN SOME
WINTRY PRECIPITATION THOUGH, MAINLY FOR THE I-80 CORRIDOR. THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FREEZING RAIN ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME
SNOWFLAKES MIXED IN AT TIMES ON THURSDAY NIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST
HAS MEASURABLE ICE FOR THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND FAR NORTHERN
NJ, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF CARBON
AND MONROE COUNTIES (UP TO 0.25"). PROBABILITY OF MEASURABLE
ICE IS AROUND 40-60% OVER THE SOUTHERN POCONOS AND FAR
NORTHWESTERN NJ. NOT QUITE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ISSUE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY YET, BUT ONE COULD COME IN FUTURE UPDATES.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS, AT THIS TIME, LOOK TO RANGE FROM 0.5"-0.75"
INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THAT WE ARE CURRENTLY IN A
DROUGHT, THE RAIN WOULD BE MUCH WELCOMED. AREAS OF FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS THE MILDER AND MORE MOIST AIR OVERRUNS SOME
LINGERING CHILLY NEAR- SURFACE AIR, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
STILL HAVE A SNOWPACK.
KEY MESSAGE 3...MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR A WINTER STORM THIS
WEEKEND, THEN MUCH COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AN ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE WITH MUCH OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWING LOW PRESSURE SLIDING WEST TO EAST AND EXITING
OFF THE NORTHERN MID- ATLANTIC COAST LATER SUNDAY. THIS STORM
LOOKS TO DEEPEN AS IT DOES SO, AND HAS THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL TO
BE IMPACTFUL ACROSS OUR REGION INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ACCUMULATING WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL. MANY OF THE DETERMINISTIC
MODELS SHOW A STORM, AND AT LEAST SOME OF THE ENSEMBLES DO AS
WELL HOWEVER THEY OFFER SOME VARIETY REGARDING THE
TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE QUESTION, AS ALWAYS, IS
THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THE SYSTEM
SHIFTS MORE SOUTHEASTWARD WHICH ACTUALLY HAS BEEN THE GENERAL
TREND OF 00Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE. A MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE AND
AI GUIDANCE ALSO TRENDED A BIT SOUTH AND EAST. THE AMOUNT OF
COLD AIR IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS STORM AND ESPECIALLY DURING IT
WILL BE IMPORTANT WHEN IT COMES DOWN TO PRECIPITATION TYPES AND
AMOUNTS AS WELL IF A STORM WERE TO TRACK CLOSE ENOUGH, AS STRONG
DYNAMICS MAY ALSO COME INTO PLAY. WHILE IT REMAINS WAY TOO
EARLY THOUGH FOR SPECIFICS, AND THERE LIKELY WILL BE FURTHER
TRENDS AND CHANGES AMONG MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE REMAINS SOME
SIGNAL FOR SOME SORT OF STORM FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.
IN THE WAKE OF THIS STORM, A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS LOOKS TO SETTLE
INTO OUR REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES PROBABLY DO NOT
GET OUT OF THE 30S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY (COLDER IN THE POCONOS),
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE TEENS.
AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY... LIFR CONDITIONS ARE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING WITH ONLY LIMITED IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED THRU THE DAY.
CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO MVFR FOR THE SOUTHERN SITES
(KILG/KMIV) AS MILDER AIR ARRIVES THERE THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED. LOW CONFID OVERALL.
TONIGHT... MORE LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH A FEW SHOWERS
AND MORE FOG. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS. LOW CONFID.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING WITH AREAS OF
PATCHY FOG, POTENTIALLY LIFTING TO MVFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY IFR WITH PERIODS
OF RAIN, LOW CLOUDS, AND PATCHY FOG. CONDITIONS DOWN TO LIFR
POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS.
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE BUT
CONDITIONS COULD LIFT BACK TO VFR.
SUNDAY...RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY (50-70%) THAT WILL RESULT IN
RESTRICTIONS. GUSTY NORTH/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-25
KT.
MARINE
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NJ/DE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE, WINDS
WILL BE MOSTLY 5 TO 10 KNOTS. DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AS WELL. WE HAVE RAISED THE SCA FLAG FOR THE
DELAWARE COASTAL ZONE AS SEAS SHOULD INCREASE TO AROUND 5 FT THIS
MORNING AND REMAIN INTO THE EVENING.
REGARDING THE RIVER ICE...THE DELAWARE BAY CONTINUES TO BE
MAINLY ICE FREE OUTSIDE OF SHALLOW NEAR-SHORE AREAS. ICE
COVERAGE REMAINS AROUND 10-30% FROM THE THE DELAWARE MEMORIAL
BRIDGE UP TO THE COMMODORE BARRY BRIDGE. NORTH OF THAT UP
THROUGH PHILADELPHIA, ICE COVERAGE IS AROUND 30-70%.
ICE COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO DECLINE WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...OUTSIDE OF SOME PATCHY FOG ON
THURSDAY MORNING, NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A PERIOD OF
GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE, DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF A COASTAL STORM MOVING OFFSHORE.
EQUIPMENT
THE KDIX RADAR REMAINS OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NJZ001-
007>010-012-015-017>019.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-431-
450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ455.
DISCUSSION...GORSE/HOEFLICH/OHARA/RCM
AVIATION...HOEFLICH/OHARA
MARINE...HOEFLICH/OHARA
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