401
FXUS61 KPHI 050634
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
134 AM EST THU MAR 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1. PATCHY DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH INTERVALS OF
MAINLY LIGHT RAIN.
2. TURNING VERY MILD THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG
WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...PATCHY DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH INTERVALS OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN.
FRONT STALLED MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL KEEP
THE WEATHER COOL AND MURKY, WITH WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
BRINGING SEVERAL PERIODS OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN. THE FIRST WILL
ARRIVE EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH A SECOND WAVE ARRIVING TONIGHT.
BETWEEN THESE RAINY INTERVALS, MIST/DRIZZLE AND PERHAPS SOME
DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP AS THE COOL BUT VERY MOIST AIR MASS
LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. THE ONE
THING IN OUR FAVOR IS THAT WINDS MAY BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO
PREVENT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG, ESPECIALLY AS REMAINING SNOW MELTS
AND GROUND TEMPS APPROACH AIR TEMPS, BUT THE RISK WILL CONTINUE.
FOR THE TIME BEING WILL CONTINUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY NEAR THE
COAST THRU 10 AM, THOUGH IT LOOKS QUESTIONABLE AT THIS MOMENT.
FRIDAY WILL FEATURE ONE MORE DAY OF RATHER DREARY CONDITIONS AS A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED THROUGH FROM THE NORTH AND
EAST AND THEN REMAIN STALLED FOR A TIME OVER DELMARVA. EXPECT MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH SOME DRIZZLE AND A LITTLE LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE AS
LOW CLOUDS AND MOISTURE REMAIN TRAPPED BELOW AN INVERSION. MOST OF
OUR EASTERN PA AND NJ ZONES SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 40S WITH A
TRICKIER FORECAST OVER DELMARVA SINCE THAT WILL BE RIGHT WHERE THE
FRONT LIKELY STALLS WITH AN ASSOCIATED SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT.
OUR CURRENT FORECAST FOR THIS AREA HAS HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S.
HOWEVER IF THE FRONT PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST, PARTS OF
DELAWARE MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 40S WHILE IF IT SETS UP A BIT
FARTHER NORTH AND EAST TEMPERATURES IN DELMARVA COULD GET INTO
THE 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...TURNING VERY MILD THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK ALONG WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS.
A MUCH WARMER AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD OUR AREA THIS
WEEKEND AND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION, THERE WILL BE
SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE COAST WILL
SHIFT FARTHER OFFSHORE AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL HELP PUSH THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
FROM FRIDAY BACK TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER
THIS COULD TAKE SOME TIME TO OCCUR SO THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY MAY
REMAIN ON THE DREARY AND COOLER SIDE. HIGHS SHOULD EVENTUALLY GET
INTO AT LEAST THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR MANY AREAS WITH LOW TO MID 70S
LIKELY OVER DELMARVA. MEANWHILE THE POCONOS AND NW NJ WILL LIKELY
SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S. A LITTLE LINGERING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE
EARLY IN THE DAY BUT OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY UNTIL LATE
DAY WHEN A FEW SHOWERS MAY START TO GET INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES DUE
TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE COULD EVEN BE A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER WITH THESE SHOWERS.
THE AFORMENTIONED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BUT
WILL TEND TO WEAKEN AND "WASH OUT" AS IT DOES SO. HOWEVER IT
WILL STILL LIKELY BRING SOME SHOWERS AS IT MOVES THROUGH BUT
NOTHING SIGNIFICANT IN TERMS OF RAINFALL.
SIMILARLY MILD TEMPERATURES TO SATURDAY CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY
WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO MOVE
THROUGH ALONG THE REMNANT BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH BUT MOST OF THE
PRECIP WITH THIS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF AREA. HOWEVER WE DO
MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
DELMARVA INTO SOUTHERN NJ THROUGH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT (POPS
HERE GENERALLY 20-30 PERCENT).
MILD TO WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK AS STRONG RIDGING PERSISTS NEAR THE EAST COAST. MONDAY
LOOKS TO FEATURE SUNSHINE WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID
60S. THEN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY HIGHS FOR MANY AREAS COULD
GET INTO THE 70S AS SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW LOOKS TO STRENGTHEN
ALONG THE EAST COAST AS THE NEXT LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD TO OUR
WEST. HOWEVER THERE ARE A COUPLE CAVEATS HERE: 1) THIS SETUP
COULD FEATURE A ROBUST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING KEEPING IT MUCH
COOLER NEAR THE COAST, AND 2) THERE ARE INDICATIONS FROM SOME
MODELS THAT HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA COULD PUSH A COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA WHICH WOULD RESULT IN COOLER
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY BY WEDNESDAY. SO THIS ALL SAID, FORECAST
CONFIDENCE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEKS IS RELATIVELY LOW. THE
AFORMENTIONED FRONT COULD ALSO BRING THE AREA SOME SHOWERS BY
LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THRU 12Z THIS MORNING...BECOMING IFR/LIFR AS DAWN APPROACHES
WITH PATCHY FOG AND OFF AND ON LIGHT RAIN MOVING IN. WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE, THOUGH A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW MAY BE
FAVORED AT TIMES. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN EXTENT OF RESTRICTIONS
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF HOW LONG IT TAKES FOR
CONDITIONS TO DROP.
TODAY...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH LIGHT SHOWERS,
LOW CLOUDS, AND FOG TAKING OVER FOR THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS
AROUND 5 KT EXPECTED OUT OF THE EAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
EXTENT OF RESTRICTIONS, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND IF
THERE IS ANY IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY.
TONIGHT...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUE WITH SOME RAIN
RETURNING. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 KT. LOW CONFIDENCE
OVERALL.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE FOG. A
FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY...TIMES OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME SHOWERS. SHOWERS
MORE NUMEROUS MOSTLY AT NIGHT WITH SOME THUNDER POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY...CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR. A FEW SHOWERS STILL
POSSIBLE.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR.
MARINE
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN MAINLY BELOW SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH
TONIGHT. A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ON
THE WATERS DURING THE PERIOD. ALSO, WITH THE COLD WATERS AND
HUMID AIRMASS, FOG IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY CONTINUES INTO THE MORNING AND MAY BE EXTENDED THRU THE
DAY. AS A WEAK WAVE PASSES LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT, WINDS MAY
APPROACH SCA CRITERIA ON OUR NORTHERN OCEAN WATERS, BUT AT THIS
TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO HELD OFF ON ANY SCA.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. FOG POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE LATE DAY SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ013-014-
020-022>027.
DE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR DEZ003-004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430-431-
450>455.
DISCUSSION...FITZSIMMONS/GORSE/HOEFLICH/OHARA/RCM
AVIATION...FITZSIMMONS/HOEFLICH/OHARA/RCM
MARINE...FITZSIMMONS/OHARA/RCM
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