044
FXUS61 KPHI 052059
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
359 PM EST THU MAR 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUED FOR MONROE COUNTY FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH 10AM FRIDAY FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.
MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY REISSUED FOR THE DELAWARE BAY AND
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE MAY. MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY NOW
IN EFFECT THROUGH 6AM FRIDAY FOR ALL MARINE ZONES.
KEY MESSAGES
1. PATCHY DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH INTERVALS
OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS; LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE FOR
THE POCONOS.
2. MILDER TEMPERATURES MAY PROMOTE POSSIBILITIES FOR DENSE FOG
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...PATCHY DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH INTERVALS OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS; LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
POSSIBLE FOR THE POCONOS.
FRONT STALLED MOSTLY TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL KEEP
THE WEATHER COOL AND MURKY, WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
BRINGING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN ARRIVING TONIGHT. FOR THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON, LIGHT SHOWERS OR A MIST/DRIZZLE AND PERHAPS
SOME DENSE FOG WILL PERSIST AS THE COOL BUT VERY MOIST AIR MASS
LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. THE ONE
THING IN OUR FAVOR IS THAT WINDS MAY BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO
PREVENT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG, ESPECIALLY AS REMAINING SNOW MELTS
AND GROUND TEMPS APPROACH AIR TEMPS, BUT THE RISK WILL CONTINUE.
AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP TONIGHT, THOUGH MAY NOT
REACH DENSE FOG CRITERIA.
HI RES FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICTING THE POTENTIAL THAT
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS COMBINED WITH MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT COLD
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE POCONO PLATEAU WOULD LEAD TO PERIODS OF
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. FOR THE TIME BEING,
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS ONLY BEEN ISSUED FOR MONROE
COUNTY, WITH THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF THE POCONO PLATEAU SEEING
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ICE ACCRETION EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
HIGH ELEVATIONS ACROSS CARBON COUNTY AS WELL AS NORTHWESTERN NEW
JERSEY COULD ALSO SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER FOR THOSE LOCATIONS AT THIS TIME. THE
REST OF THE REGION WILL SEE ALL RAIN.
FRIDAY WILL FEATURE ANOTHER DAY OF DREARY CONDITIONS AS A BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED THROUGH FROM THE NORTH AND EAST AND THEN
REMAIN STALLED FOR A TIME OVER DELMARVA. EXPECT LOTS OF CLOUDS
WITH SOME FOG, DRIZZLE OR A FEW SHOWERS AS LOW CLOUDS AND MOISTURE
REMAIN TRAPPED BELOW AN INVERSION. MOST OF OUR AREA SHOULD SEE
HIGHS IN THE 40S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MILDER TEMPERATURES MAY PROMOTE POSSIBILITIES
FOR DENSE FOG AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND.
A CHANGE IN UPPER AND SURFACE PATTERNS WILL RESULT IN MILDER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND (ESPECIALLY SUNDAY) AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
THESE MILDER TEMPERATURES ADJACENT TO THE COLD OCEAN WATERS WILL
CREATE OPPORTUNITIES FOR FOG, PERHAPS DENSE FOG, WHICH COULD CREATE
IMPACT TRAVEL. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE LIKELY CLOSE TO THE
SHORE AND AROUND DELAWARE BAY. THE MILDER TEMPS MAY PROMOTE MORE
POSSIBILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD CREATE IMPACTS IF THEY
BECOME STRONG. CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING IS LOW (NOT ZERO) AT THE
TIME.
AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TODAY...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY WITH LIGHT SHOWERS, LOW CLOUDS, AND PATCHY FOG. LIGHT
WINDS AROUND 5 KT EXPECTED OUT OF THE EAST. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN EXTENT OF RESTRICTIONS, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND IF
THERE IS ANY IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY.
TONIGHT...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUE WITH FOG AND LOW
STRATUS. A ROUND OF RAIN RETURNS OVERNIGHT WITH MORE FOG TOWARD
DAWN. EAST- NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 KT. LOW CONFIDENCE
OVERALL.
FRIDAY...IFR CONDITIONS PERSIST DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
FOG. FOG MAY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BUT LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
FOG POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY... MOSTLY VFR BUT IFR POSSIBLE NEAR THE SHORE WITH FOG.
SATURDAY NIGHT... WIDESPREAD LOWER CONDITIONS WITH FOG AND SHOWERS
EXPECTED.
SUNDAY... MOSTLY VFR BUT IFR POSSIBLE NEAR THE SHORE WITH FOG.
MONDAY/TUESDAY... VFR EXPECTED.
MARINE
MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THRU 6AM FRIDAY FOR
ALL COASTAL ZONES. VISIBILITIES REMAIN LIMITED AROUND 1 NM OR
LESS.
OTHERWISE, MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
THERE MAY BE A SHORT PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA WIND GUSTS ON SAT NIGHT,
BUT OTHER THAN THAT, NO SCA FLAGS EXPECTED. A FEW TSTMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLE SUN AFTERNOON OR EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS
RATHER LOW ATTM. FOG WILL LIKELY BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN THIS PERIOD
WITH DENSE FOG AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY FOR PAZ055.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
450>455.
DISCUSSION...MJL/OHARA
AVIATION...MJL/OHARA
MARINE...MJL/OHARA
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