170
FXUS61 KPHI 060639
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
139 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY EXTENDED UNTIL 10 AM FOR ALL MARINE
ZONES.
KEY MESSAGES
1. PATCHY DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH INTERVALS
OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS; LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE FOR
THE POCONOS THIS MORNING.
2. MILDER TEMPERATURES MAY PROMOTE POSSIBILITIES FOR DENSE FOG
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...PATCHY DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH INTERVALS OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS; LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
POSSIBLE FOR THE POCONOS THIS MORNING.
REINFORCING PUSH OF COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST AS THE
OVERNIGHT LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS EASTWARD WILL KEEP US COOL AND
MURKY THROUGH TONIGHT AT LEAST. FOR THE MOMENT, FOG HAS LIFTED,
BUT WITH CONTINUED NORTHEAST FLOW AND MOIST CONDITIONS, EXPECT
VISIBILITIES TO DECLINE AGAIN NEAR DAWN, THOUGH SOME MODEST
RECOVERY LOOKS MORE LIKELY LATER IN THE DAY TODAY. HOWEVER,
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING MORE SHOWERS/LIGHT
RAIN TO THE REGION TONIGHT, WHICH COULD ENHANCE FOG POTENTIAL,
ESPECIALLY AS WARM ADVECTION ALOFT BEGINS TO INTENSIFY ONCE
MORE. AT THIS TIME WE MAINTAIN NO DENSE FOG ADVISORIES, BUT
WE'LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBS EARLY THIS MORNING. BEST GUESS IS
BETTER RISK OF FOG IS TONIGHT INSTEAD OF THIS MORNING.
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND FOG WITH TEMPS DIPPING NEAR FREEZING MAY
STILL PRESENT AN ICY RISK FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF MONROE
COUNTY THIS MORNING, SO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED FOR THE TIME BEING. ITS POSSIBLE WE CANCEL IT EARLY
IF TEMPS FAIL TO FALL FURTHER THAN THEY HAVE THUS FAR.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MILDER TEMPERATURES MAY PROMOTE POSSIBILITIES
FOR DENSE FOG AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND.
A CHANGE IN UPPER AND SURFACE PATTERNS WILL RESULT IN MILDER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND (ESPECIALLY SUNDAY) AND INTO NEXT
WEEK. THESE MILDER TEMPERATURES ADJACENT TO THE COLD OCEAN
WATERS WILL CREATE OPPORTUNITIES FOR FOG, PERHAPS DENSE FOG,
WHICH COULD CREATE IMPACT TRAVEL. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE
LIKELY CLOSE TO THE SHORE AND AROUND DELAWARE BAY. THE MILDER
TEMPS MAY PROMOTE MORE POSSIBILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
COULD CREATE IMPACTS IF THEY BECOME STRONG. CONFIDENCE IN THIS
HAPPENING IS LOW (NOT ZERO) AT THE TIME.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THRU 12Z...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUE WITH MIST AND
LOW STRATUS. ROUND OF RAIN TEMPORARILY IMPROVED VSBY, CLEARING
OUT THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE, BUT EXPECT MIST AND DRIZZLE TO
POTENTIALLY DROP VISBY AGAIN TOWARD DAWN. EAST- NORTHEAST WINDS
AROUND 5 KT. LOW CONFIDENCE OVERALL.
TODAY...IFR CONDITIONS PERSIST DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
FOG. FOG MAY IMPROVE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BUT LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE, MAINLY LATE.
TONIGHT...IFR LIKELY CONTINUES DUE TO LOW CIGS, WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE REDUCTIONS IN VSBY AS FOG
ATTEMPTS TO ENHANCE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY... MOSTLY VFR BUT IFR POSSIBLE NEAR THE SHORE WITH
FOG.
SATURDAY NIGHT... WIDESPREAD LOWER CONDITIONS WITH FOG AND
SHOWERS EXPECTED.
SUNDAY... MOSTLY VFR BUT IFR POSSIBLE NEAR THE SHORE WITH FOG.
MONDAY/TUESDAY... VFR EXPECTED.
MARINE
MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THRU 10AM THIS MORNING
FOR ALL COASTAL ZONES. VISIBILITIES REMAIN LIMITED AROUND 1 NM
OR LESS.
WINDS MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH 25 KTS OVER THE OCEAN ZONES TODAY AND
TONIGHT, WHILE SEAS MAY ALSO TOUCH 5 FEET, BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS TOO LOW FOR ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...
THERE MAY BE A SHORT PERIOD OF LOW-END SCA WIND GUSTS ON SAT NIGHT,
BUT OTHER THAN THAT, NO SCA FLAGS EXPECTED. A FEW TSTMS WITH GUSTY
WINDS POSSIBLE SUN AFTERNOON OR EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS
RATHER LOW ATTM. FOG WILL LIKELY BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN THIS PERIOD
WITH DENSE FOG AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ055.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430-431-
450>455.
DISCUSSION...AKL/MJL/OHARA/RCM
AVIATION...AKL/MJL/OHARA/RCM
MARINE...MJL/OHARA/RCM
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