742
FXUS61 KPHI 061133
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
633 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FOG COVERAGE DECREASED A BIT, PARTICULARLY THIS MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
1. PATCHY DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH INTERVALS
OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS; LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE FOR
THE POCONOS THIS MORNING.
2. MUCH WARMER AIR GRADUALLY OVERSPREADS THE REGION LATER THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH SOME DENSE FOG POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...PATCHY DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH INTERVALS OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS; LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
POSSIBLE FOR THE POCONOS THIS MORNING.
REINFORCING PUSH OF COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST AS THE
OVERNIGHT LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS EASTWARD WILL KEEP US COOL AND
MURKY THROUGH TONIGHT AT LEAST. THAT HAVING BEEN SAID, GUIDANCE
HAS PROVEN TOO PESSIMISTIC WITH FOG POTENTIAL THIS MORNING, WITH
ENOUGH OF A LOW-LEVEL WIND TO KEEP IT STIRRED UP. HOWEVER,
ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING MORE SHOWERS/LIGHT
RAIN TO THE REGION TONIGHT, WHICH COULD ENHANCE FOG POTENTIAL,
ESPECIALLY AS WARM ADVECTION ALOFT BEGINS TO INTENSIFY ONCE
MORE AND SURFACE WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE. IT CONTINUES TO
LOOK LIKE DENSE FOG IS MORE LIKELY TONIGHT THAN THIS MORNING.
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE AND FOG WITH TEMPS DIPPING JUST BELOW
FREEZING HAS REALIZED THE LIGHT GLAZE POTENTIAL ACROSS MONROE
COUNTY, WHERE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
10 AM. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS LIKELY TEMPS WILL RISE ABOVE
FREEZING BY THEN, SO HAVE NOT EXTENDED IT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...MUCH WARMER AIR GRADUALLY OVERSPREADS THE REGION
LATER THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALONG WITH SOME DENSE FOG
POSSIBLE.
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKS WELL TO OUR NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY, WITH A TRAILING WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH.
THIS LOOKS TO BRING SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM TO OUR
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH THE FORCING FOR ASCENT
MAY END UP WEAKENING WITH AN EASTWARD EXTENT WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS. AS OF NOW, DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE NBM
POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY WHICH MAY STILL BE ON THE
HIGH SIDE. AN INCREASE IN THE LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT LOOKS TO ERODE THE WEDGE OF COLDER AIR FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH, THEREFORE HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY FOR MUCH OF OUR
AREA LOOK TO OCCUR DURING SATURDAY EVENING. USED A NBM/NBM10 BLEND
FOR TEMPERATURES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY TO SHOW A SLOWER EROSION OF
THE LOW-LEVEL COLDER AIR. THIS ALSO RESULTS IN COOLER TEMPERATURES
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WE BECOME MORE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN A MUCH WARMER AIR MASS SURGING INTO THE REGION. HIGHS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, THEN INTO
THE LOW TO SOME MID 70S FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR MANY AREAS.
THE FLOW MAY BE LIGHT ENOUGH AND ALSO MORE SOUTHERLY THOUGH EARLY
NEXT WEAK, WHICH WOULD INTRODUCE SIGNIFICANT COOLING ALONG THE COAST
WITH PERHAPS EVEN A ROBUST SEA BREEZE SHIFTING INLAND. SOME GUIDANCE
IS FASTER WITH A COLD FRONT AND RIPPLE OF LOW PRESSURE WEDNESDAY,
AND IF THIS OCCURS THEN TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET INTO THE 70S. IT
TURNS MUCH COOLER THURSDAY BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE.
THE MUCH MILDER AIR MASS AND HIGHER DEW POINTS ABOVE AND ADJACENT TO
THE COLD OCEAN OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL CREATE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR FOG, PERHAPS DENSE FOG. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE
MORE ENHANCED CLOSER TO THE COAST AND AROUND DELAWARE BAY.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS PERSIST DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND
MIST. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE, MAINLY LATE.
TONIGHT...IFR LIKELY CONTINUES DUE TO LOW CIGS, WITH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE REDUCTIONS IN VSBY AS FOG
ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG, ALTHOUGH
CEILINGS MAY IMPROVE SOME AT NIGHT. SHOWERS MOSTLY AT NIGHT.
SUNDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TO START, OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL.
MARINE
MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THRU 10AM THIS MORNING
FOR ALL COASTAL ZONES. VISIBILITIES REMAIN LIMITED AROUND 1 NM
OR LESS.
WINDS MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH 25 KTS OVER THE OCEAN ZONES TODAY AND
TONIGHT, WHILE SEAS MAY ALSO TOUCH 5 FEET, BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS TOO LOW FOR ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...A BRIEF PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AT NIGHT. DENSE FOG POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. DENSE FOG POSSIBLE.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
PAZ055.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430-431-
450>455.
DISCUSSION...GORSE/RCM
AVIATION...GORSE/RCM
MARINE...GORSE/RCM
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