981
FXUS61 KPHI 070607
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
107 AM EST SAT MAR 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL MARINE ZONES
UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING.
FOR MARINE ZONES, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1. PATCHY DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING WITH AN INTERVAL OF LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS.
2. WARMER AIR GRADUALLY OVERSPREADS THE REGION LATER THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A COUPLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND FOG.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...PATCHY DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH AN INTERVAL OF LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS.
DENSE FOG REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN MONROE
COUNTY, MAINLY ALONG THE POCONO PLATEAU. WITH TEMPERATURES NOW ABOVE
FREEZING, THE FREEZING FOG ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE, BUT WAS
REPLACED BY A DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6PM. FURTHER EXTENSIONS MAY BE
NEEDED WITH FOG POTENTIALLY EXTENDING OVERNIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA CONTINUES TO WEDGE IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THERE REGION, PROVIDING A REINFORCED SHOT OF COOLER
TEMPS AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS, ACTING AS A BACKDOOR FRONT IN MANY
WAYS. OVERNIGHT, ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING MORE
SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN TO THE REGION. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH, WARM
AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO INTENSIFY WITH THE CANADIAN HIGH
PROVIDING A AMPLE COLD AIR DAMMING (CAD) SETUP. LUCKILY THE ONLY
MAJOR IMPACTS THIS CAD SETUP WILL BRING IS LOW STRATUS AND FOG.
TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE FREEZING, SO
FREEZING RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. FOG COULD BE DENSE AT
TIMES AND HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. FOG WILL NOT BE AS DENSE AS WE GO THROUGH
SATURDAY, BUT LIKELY LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A SURFACE WARM
FRONT AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL VERY SLOWLY LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENTUALLY BREAK THE CAD
PATTERN, BUT THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY STAGNATE ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND
SOUTH JERSEY FOR MOST OF THE DAY. AREAS ACROSS SOUTHERN DELMARVA MAY
BE THE ONLY LOCATIONS THAT BREAK THE LOW STATUS DECK AND WARM INTO
THE LOW 60S BY LATE AFTERNOON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WARMER AIR GRADUALLY OVERSPREADS THE REGION LATER
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A COUPLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND FOG.
AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACKS WELL TO THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY, WITH A TRAILING WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS SHOULD BRING A DECAYING LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM TO OUR REGION INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. AS OF NOW, DID
NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE NBM POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY WHICH MAY STILL BE ON THE HIGH SIDE. WE BECOME MORE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN A MUCH WARMER AIR MASS SURGING INTO THE REGION.
HIGHS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60S FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA, THEN INTO THE LOW TO SOME MID 70S FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY FOR MANY AREAS. THE FLOW MAY BE LIGHT ENOUGH WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS TO OCCUR DAILY, RESULTING IN
SIGNIFICANT COOLING ALONG THE COAST WHERE MANY COASTAL AREAS WILL BE
STUCK IN THE 50S.
THE MUCH MILDER AIRMASS AND HIGHER DEW POINTS NOTED ABOVE ADJACENT
TO THE COLD OCEAN OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL CREATE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR FOG, PERHAPS DENSE FOG. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE
MORE ENHANCED CLOSER TO THE COAST AND AROUND DELAWARE BAY.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN ONCE AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERHAPS LINGERING INTO THURSDAY.
GUIDANCE VARIES ON TIMING, BUT BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SHOW SIGNALS OF A RATHER STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL TRACK
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, THE WARMTH WILL CEASE AND WE'LL WELCOME THE RETURN OF MORE
SEASONABLE WEATHER TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK. DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY EVERYTHING EVOLVES AND PROGRESSES, SOME SHOWER CHANCES MAY
LINGER INTO LATE WEEK, BUT OVERALL SHOULD COME TO AN END IN WAKE OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...IFR/LIFR CONTINUES DUE TO LOW CIGS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
FOG HAS BEEN DEVELOPING AT KABE/KRDG AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AT THE OTHER TERMINALS AFTER 09Z. THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO REDUCE VISIBILITY THROUGH 12Z. AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND AT
AROUND 5 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES. HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN IFR/LIFR FROM LOW CEILINGS BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON
THE EXTENT OF THE FOG DEVELOPMENT.
SATURDAY...IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IMPROVE AFTER 16-18Z. LOW CEILINGS
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL TERMINALS. WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE MORNING. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN PREVAILING
IFR/LIFR DUE TO CEILINGS BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT TIMING OF
VISIBILITY IMPROVEMENTS.
SATURDAY NIGHT...IFR/LIFR INITIALLY WITH LOW CEILINGS. RAIN
SHOWERS MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN 00-02Z FOR THE LEHIGH
VALLEY TERMINALS AND I-95 TERMINALS LEADING TO VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES. DUE TO THE LINE OF SHOWERS WEAKENING,
MENTION OF -SHRA WAS NOT INCLUDED FOR KMIV/KACY. LLWS ALSO
LOOKS TO DEVELOP AROUND 00Z OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 45
KNOTS AT ALL TERMINALS. AFTER 09Z, THE LLWS LOOKS TO END AND
CEILING/VISIBILITY IMPROVEMENTS OCCUR HEADING TOWARDS 12Z.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE TO VFR BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR EXPECTED. LOCALIZED SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH FOG. A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
MARINE
MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA
THROUGH TODAY. MARINE DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED LEADING TO A
MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY BEING ISSUED THROUGH 10 AM THIS
MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR ALL ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS DUE TO WINDS UP TO 25 KT AND SEAS
BETWEEN 3-7 FEET. A CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES EXPECTED.
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KT AND SEAS AROUND 2-4 FEET.
WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY. WIND GUSTS UP TO
25 KT AND SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6 FEET. SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ055.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430-431-
450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EST SUNDAY
FOR ANZ450>455.
DISCUSSION...DESILVA/GORSE/MJL
AVIATION...DESILVA/GUZZO/MJL
MARINE...DESILVA/GUZZO/MJL
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