406
FXUS61 KPHI 080730
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
330 AM EDT SUN MAR 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA UNTIL 7 AM
THIS MORNING.
THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED TO 11 AM FOR ALL THE
MARINE ZONES.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DENSE FOG CONTINUES INTO THIS MORNING.
2. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY LEADING TO CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
3. WARMER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
A COUPLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND FOG.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...DENSE FOG CONTINUES INTO THIS MORNING.
A STABLE AIRMASS REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LOW
STRATUS AND FOG IN PLACE. WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH INTO THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA.
SOUNDINGS ALREADY SHOW SOME OF THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION LESSENING
ACROSS PARTS OF DELMARVA WHERE THE WARM FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH.
HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL INVERSION KEEPING MOISTURE
TRAPPED AT/NEAR THE SURFACE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. DUE TO THIS, DENSE
FOG HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND LOW STRATUS CONTINUES
TO PERSIST. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL 7 AM. VISIBILITY SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH THE
MORNING AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO ERODE THE LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION WITH THE WARM FRONT CONTINUING NORTHWARD. TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT HAVE CONTINUED TO WARM AND THE ADDITIONAL WARM AIR
ADVECTION TODAY WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S FOR
MANY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY LEADING
TO CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA INTO THIS MORNING, SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE LINGERING. THROUGH THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS
AFTERNOON, THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME INSTABILITY PRESENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF
DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NEW JERSEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM BUT NOTHING SEVERE IS
EXPECTED. ONCE THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA THIS EVENING, A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST ALLOWING FOR
DECREASING CLOUDS AND DRIER CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 3...WARMER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH A COUPLE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND FOG.
THE REGION WILL BE BENEATH A FAIRLY BENIGN UPPER PATTERN FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF SUNDAY'S
FRONTAL PASSAGE. AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT, LIGHT RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE,
BRINGING ABOUT A WARMING TREND. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. ON MONDAY,
WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE,
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 60S ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S AND
50S. HIGHS MAY BE COOLER IN PROXIMITY TO THE OCEAN DUE TO
POTENTIAL SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY. IN ADDITION, THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG EACH NIGHT. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS IN
COMBINATION WITH WARM AND MOIST AIR OVERSPREADING THE REGION
WITH VERY COOL OCEAN TEMPERATURES COULD LEAD TO DENSE FOG,
PARTICULARLY NEAR THE COASTS.
BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MUCH MORE
UNSETTLED AS A POTENT TROUGH OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE US
BEGINS TO WORK EASTWARD TOWARDS OUR AREA. BROAD ASCENT IS LIKELY
TO BEGIN OVERSPREADING THE REGION DURING THIS TIME, AND WILL
LEAD TO A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME. ON WEDNESDAY, SHOWER ACTIVITY APPEARS MOST
LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH OF I- 95, WITH POPS CURRENTLY IN THE
20-40% RANGE. WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SHOWERS MAY HAVE A TENDENCY TO
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE REGION.
THE TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
SOMETIME ON THURSDAY, WITH A SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
ON THURSDAY, POPS INCREASE TO 50-70% AREAWIDE. MOST GUIDANCE
FEATURES A LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. VERY
STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT AND AT LEAST MODEST INSTABILITY ARE
FORECAST TO BE PRESENT, SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AFTER
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, SOME LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA AS COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE
REGION.
COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM MAY GLANCE THE REGION
FRIDAY NIGHT, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN AND PERHAPS A
LITTLE SNOW IN THE POCONOS, BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SYSTEM
WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH KEEPING THE REGION DRY. FOR NOW, WILL
FEATURE 20-30% POPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, WITH THE HIGHER
CHANCES BEING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...GENERALLY IFR/LIFR (POSSIBLY VLIFR AT TIMES) WITH LOW
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS FROM FOG. RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH COVERAGE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED. VCSH HAS BEEN ADDED FOR THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND I-95
TERMINALS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR -SHRA IS AT
KRDG/KABE. LLWS REMAINS LIKELY AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 10Z OUT
OF THE WEST- SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 40-50 KT. OVERALL, MODERATE-LOW
CONFIDENCE.
SUNDAY...LINGERING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EARLY, SHOULD GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TO MVFR BETWEEN 12-15Z WITH SHOWERS IN THE AREA ENDING.
THE EXCEPTION IS MIV AND ACY WHERE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OVERALL, A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY THE AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST. WEST WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP
TO 20 KT POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR. A WEST WIND AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS. SOME
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE BUT IS TOO LOW CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR. PERIODS OF SUB-
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN FOG EACH NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
IN RAIN SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.
SOME THUNDER IS POSSIBLE.
MARINE
MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 11 AM
TODAY FOR ALL ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING THE DELAWARE
BAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM THIS
EVENING FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS ONLY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAIN AROUND 15-20 KT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE SHIFTING WEST AROUND 10-15 KT IN WAKE OF A FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS EVENING. SEAS AROUND 4-6 FEET. SEAS AND WINDS
CONTINUE TO DECREASE INTO TONIGHT.
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
WINDS UNDER 25 KT AND SEAS UNDER 5 FEET. MARINE FOG IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. GALES ARE
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25
KT ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS 20- 25 KT WITH GUSTS 30-35 KT EXPECTED THURSDAY, BEFORE
BECOMING WEST- NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. SEAS 4-7 FEET ON WEDNESDAY WILL INCREASE TO 5-9 FEET
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY, PARTICULARLY
ON THURSDAY.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ054-055-
060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ013>027.
DE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ430-431-
450>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ450>455.
DISCUSSION...COOPER/GUZZO
AVIATION...COOPER/GUZZO
MARINE...COOPER/GUZZO
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