955
FXUS61 KPHI 081549
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1149 AM EDT SUN MAR 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE WITH VISIBILITIES
IMPROVING ACROSS THE REGION.
THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED TO 4PM FOR MARINE
ZONES NORTH OF CAPE MAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY LEADING TO
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
2. WARMER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK BEFORE
A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS BACK FOR
THE LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TODAY
LEADING TO CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME
THUNDERSTORMS.
AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING, SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE LINGERING. THROUGH THIS MORNING AND INTO
THIS AFTERNOON, THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME
INSTABILITY PRESENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS PARTS OF DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NEW JERSEY.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
BUT NOTHING SEVERE IS EXPECTED. ONCE THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE
AREA THIS EVENING, A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST ALLOWING FOR DECREASING CLOUDS AND DRIER
CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WARMER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION EARLY
THIS WEEK BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS MORE SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS BACK FOR THE LATE WEEK.
THE REGION WILL BE BENEATH A FAIRLY BENIGN UPPER PATTERN FROM
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF TODAY'S FRONTAL
PASSAGE. AS THE HIGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT, LIGHT RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE, BRINGING ABOUT
A WARMING TREND. ON MONDAY, WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND AT
LEAST SOME SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE
60S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S AND
LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER IN PROXIMITY TO
THE OCEAN DUE TO SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY. IN ADDITION,
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG EACH NIGHT. RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH WARM AND MOIST AIR OVERSPREADING THE
REGION WITH VERY COOL OCEAN TEMPERATURES COULD LEAD TO DENSE
FOG, PARTICULARLY NEAR THE COASTS.
BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MUCH MORE
UNSETTLED AS A POTENT TROUGH OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE US
BEGINS TO WORK EASTWARD TOWARDS OUR AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASED CLOUD COVER, BUT AT THIS TIME SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO LAG UNTIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, WITH A SURFACE LOW AND
TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. ALONG THE COLD
FRONT, MOST GUIDANCE FEATURES A LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION. VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT AND AT LEAST MODEST
INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST TO BE PRESENT, SO WE CAN'T RULED OUT A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS OR AT LEAST SOME GUSTY WINDS. AFTER THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, SOME LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA AS COLDER AIR BLOWS BACK INTO THE
REGION.
A RETURN OF SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM MAY GLANCE
THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN AND
PERHAPS A LITTLE SNOW IN THE POCONOS. FOR NOW, WILL FEATURE
20-30% POPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES
BEING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...LINGERING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EARLY, SHOULD GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN VFR BETWEEN 12-15Z. THERE ARE SOME
SHOWERS AROUND ACROSS THE AREA THAT END FOR MOST TERMINALS BY
15Z. THE EXCEPTION IS MIV AND ACY WHERE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OVERALL, A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY AROUND 15Z. WEST
WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE
IN THE AFTERNOON. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. A WEST WIND AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS. SOME PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE BUT IS TOO LOW CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. PERIODS OF SUB- VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN FOG EACH NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
IN RAIN SHOWERS. GUSTY WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE.
MARINE
MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 4 PM TODAY
FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE MAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING FOR THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS ONLY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAIN AROUND 15-20 KT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE SHIFTING WEST AROUND 10-15 KT IN WAKE OF A FRONTAL
PASSAGE THIS EVENING. SEAS AROUND 4-6 FEET. SEAS AND WINDS
CONTINUE TO DECREASE INTO TONIGHT.
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TODAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS ALSO PRESENT TODAY. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
WINDS UNDER 25 KT AND SEAS UNDER 5 FEET. MARINE FOG IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. GALES ARE
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25
KT ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS 20- 25 KT WITH GUSTS 30-35 KT EXPECTED THURSDAY, BEFORE
BECOMING WEST- NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT THURSDAY. SEAS
3-6 FEET ON WEDNESDAY WILL INCREASE TO 6-11 FEET WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY, PARTICULARLY ON
THURSDAY, WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ450>453.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ450>455.
DISCUSSION...GUZZO/MJL/RCM
AVIATION...GUZZO/RCM
MARINE...GUZZO/RCM
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