801
FXUS61 KPHI 081923
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
323 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A COLD FRONT CLEARS THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
2. WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH
MID WEEK BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS MORE SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS BACK FOR THE LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A COLD FRONT CLEARS THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH THROUGH THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON, BRINGING NOTICEABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES AND OUR FIRST
BREAK OF SUNSHINE IN QUITE SOME TIME. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
DRAPED ACROSS THE WESTERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARDS THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING. HI RES GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY IS PLACE
AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WHICH COULD HELP BRING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS OR PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM FOR THE SOUTHERN
DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NEW JERSEY. NOTHING SEVERE IS
EXPECTED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES DEVELOP. ONCE THE COLD
FRONT CLEARS THE AREA THIS EVENING, A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST ALLOWING FOR DECREASING CLOUDS
AND DRIER CONDITIONS INTO TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS MORE
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS BACK FOR THE LATE WEEK.
THE REGION WILL BE BENEATH A FAIRLY BENIGN UPPER PATTERN
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA, AND A
CONTINUED WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH MORNING LOWS
IN THE 40S AND 50S. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER IN PROXIMITY TO THE
OCEAN DUE TO POTENTIAL SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS IN
COMBINATION WITH WARM AND MOIST AIR OVERSPREADING THE REGION
WITH VERY COOL OCEAN TEMPERATURES COULD LEAD TO AREAS OF DENSE
FOG, PARTICULARLY NEAR THE COASTS.
BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MUCH MORE
UNSETTLED AS A POTENT TROUGH OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE US
BEGINS TO WORK EASTWARD TOWARDS OUR AREA. BROAD ASCENT IS LIKELY
TO BEGIN OVERSPREADING THE REGION DURING THIS TIME, AND WILL
LEAD TO A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME. ON WEDNESDAY, SHOWER ACTIVITY APPEARS MOST
LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH OF I- 95, WITH POPS CURRENTLY IN THE
30-50% RANGE, WITH POPS AROUND 20% SOUTH OF IT. RAINFALL ON
WEDNESDAY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD AND AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO MAXIMIZE, WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE
NORTH OF THE REGION WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, POPS INCREASE TO 50-70% AREAWIDE.
MOST GUIDANCE FEATURES A LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT AND AT LEAST MODEST
INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST TO BE PRESENT, SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. WHILE THE TIMING OF THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE IDEAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH. AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, SOME LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE REGION.
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY
GLANCE THE AREA, WITH THE FIRST BEING FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE SECOND BEING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA, BUT IT STILL APPEARS THAT THESE DISTURBANCES MAY TRACK
FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH TO BRING LITTLE OR NO IMPACTS. WILL
CONTINUE TO FEATURE 20-30% POPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, WITH
THE HIGHER CHANCES BEING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
REST OF TODAY (THROUGH 00Z)...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS. WEST
WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE
IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. A WEST WIND AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS. SOME PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY FOR MIV/ACY, BUT IS TOO LOW CONFIDENCE
RIGHT NOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY...VFR. WINDS FROM THE SSW AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR. PERIODS OF
SUB- VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN FOG AND PERHAPS LOW
CLOUDS EACH NIGHT, THOUGH HOW FAR INLAND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ABLE TO MAKE IT REMAINS IN QUESTION.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
IN RAIN SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.
SOME THUNDER IS POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE THROUGH
THE DAY THOUGH LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED.
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
FRIDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR
THE LEHIGH VALLEY TERMINALS.
MARINE
MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM TODAY
FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE MAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING FOR THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS ONLY FOR SEAS 3-5 FEET.
SOUTHWEST WINDS REMAIN AROUND 15-20 KT THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING WEST AROUND 10-15 KT IN WAKE OF A
FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING. SEAS AROUND 3-5 FEET. SEAS AND
WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE INTO TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER OVERALL.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH WINDS UNDER 25 KT AND SEAS UNDER 5 FEET. MARINE
FOG IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY AT NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. GALES ARE
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25
KT ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING
TO 20- 25 KT WITH GUSTS 30-35 KT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY,
BEFORE BECOMING WEST-NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN WINDS BEFORE THEY AGAIN
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT
FRIDAY. SEAS 4-7 FEET ON WEDNESDAY WILL INCREASE TO 6-12 FEET
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, DECREASING BACK TO 4-7 FEET
FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ450>453.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ450>455.
DISCUSSION...COOPER/MJL
AVIATION...COOPER/MJL
MARINE...COOPER/MJL
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