616
FXUS61 KPHI 082355
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
755 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A COLD FRONT CLEARS THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, BRINGING A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.
2. WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH
MID WEEK BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS MORE SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS BACK FOR THE LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE LAND AREAS AS OF
SUNSET AND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY TONIGHT.
A COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED THE AREA AS OF THE EARLY EVENING. A
FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPED EARLIER ACROSS DE BUT HAVE NOW DIMINISHED.
FOLLOWING THE FRONT, A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE SOUTH AND WEST TONIGHT AND MONDAY ALLOWING FOR DECREASING
CLOUDS AND DRIER CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION
THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS MORE SEASONABLE
CONDITIONS BACK FOR THE LATE WEEK.
THE REGION WILL BE BENEATH A FAIRLY BENIGN UPPER PATTERN THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA, AND A CONTINUED WARMING TREND
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME HIGHS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR MOST
OF THE AREA WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S. HIGHS WILL BE
COOLER IN PROXIMITY TO THE OCEAN DUE TO POTENTIAL SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION, THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH WARM AND MOIST AIR
OVERSPREADING THE REGION WITH VERY COOL OCEAN TEMPERATURES COULD
LEAD TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG, PARTICULARLY NEAR THE COASTS.
BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MUCH MORE
UNSETTLED AS A POTENT TROUGH OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE US
BEGINS TO WORK EASTWARD TOWARDS OUR AREA. BROAD ASCENT IS LIKELY
TO BEGIN OVERSPREADING THE REGION DURING THIS TIME, AND WILL
LEAD TO A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME. ON WEDNESDAY, SHOWER ACTIVITY APPEARS MOST
LIKELY ALONG AND NORTH OF I- 95, WITH POPS CURRENTLY IN THE
30-50% RANGE, WITH POPS AROUND 20% SOUTH OF IT. RAINFALL ON
WEDNESDAY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD AND AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO MAXIMIZE, WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE
NORTH OF THE REGION WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, POPS INCREASE TO 50-70% AREAWIDE.
MOST GUIDANCE FEATURES A LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION. VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT AND AT LEAST MODEST
INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST TO BE PRESENT, SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. WHILE THE TIMING OF THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE IDEAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH. AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, SOME LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS COLDER AIR FILTERS
INTO THE REGION.
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. A COUPLE OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MAY
GLANCE THE AREA, WITH THE FIRST BEING FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE SECOND BEING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA, BUT IT STILL APPEARS THAT THESE DISTURBANCES MAY TRACK
FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH TO BRING LITTLE OR NO IMPACTS. WILL
CONTINUE TO FEATURE 20-30% POPS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, WITH
THE HIGHER CHANCES BEING ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TONIGHT...VFR. A WEST WIND AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS. SOME PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY FOR MIV/ACY, BUT IS TOO LOW CONFIDENCE
RIGHT NOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. MODERATE/HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MONDAY...VFR. WINDS FROM THE SSW AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR. PERIODS OF
SUB- VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN FOG AND PERHAPS LOW
CLOUDS EACH NIGHT, THOUGH HOW FAR INLAND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ABLE TO MAKE IT REMAINS IN QUESTION.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
IN RAIN SHOWERS.
THURSDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.
SOME THUNDER IS POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY IMPROVE THROUGH
THE DAY THOUGH LINGERING RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED.
THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
FRIDAY...PRIMARILY VFR. SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR
THE LEHIGH VALLEY TERMINALS.
MARINE
MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM MONDAY
FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE MAY. THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THAT WAS UP EARLIER HAS BEEN TAKEN DOWN AS SEAS CONTINUE
TO DECREASE.
WEST WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT IN WAKE OF A FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. SEAS AROUND 3-4 FEET. SEAS AND
WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE LATER TONIGHT. FAIR WEATHER.
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER OVERALL.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH WINDS UNDER 25 KT AND SEAS UNDER 5 FEET. MARINE
FOG IS POSSIBLE, MAINLY AT NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. GALES ARE
POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25
KT ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASING
TO 20- 25 KT WITH GUSTS 30-35 KT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY,
BEFORE BECOMING WEST-NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND A COLD FRONT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN WINDS BEFORE THEY AGAIN
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT
FRIDAY. SEAS 4-7 FEET ON WEDNESDAY WILL INCREASE TO 6-12 FEET
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, DECREASING BACK TO 4-7 FEET
FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ450>453.
DISCUSSION...COOPER/MJL
AVIATION...COOPER/MJL
MARINE...COOPER/MJL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page