135
FXUS61 KPHI 101510
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1110 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE RISK FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS INCREASED
SOME WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1. NEAR RECORD WARMTH TODAY. AREAS OF PATCHY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE
AGAIN TONIGHT.
2. WARMTH AND INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WITH
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE.
3. A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES OUR REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...NEAR RECORD WARMTH TODAY. AREAS OF PATCHY DENSE
FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE. ANOTHER DAY WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE, NOW THAT THIS
MORNING'S FOG HAS DISSIPATED. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ARE
EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCALES, WITH 60S IN THE POCONOS AND 50S
ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH RECORDS IN SOME SPOTS
(SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE INFO).
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG AND MIST IS POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS EVENING INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS OCCURRENCE IS LOW. LATEST
HREF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS SLUG OF MARINE FOG WILL LIKELY
REMAIN MOSTLY OVER THE WATERS OR RIGHT ALONG THE COASTAL STRIP.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WARMTH AND INCREASINGLY MORE HUMID CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY WITH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE.
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES ON WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH. WARM AIR WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE, AND A MORE HUMID AIRMASS SPREADS INTO THE REGION
WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MANY
PLACES, ALTHOUGH STILL MUCH COOLER ALONG THE COAST DUE TO A
SOUTHERLY WIND OFF THE COLD OCEAN. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR
THE RECORDS. THE WARMTH COULD BE MUTED SOME HOWEVER IF THICKER CLOUD
COVER ARRIVES FASTER DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. SOME SHOWERS SHOULD
START TO DEVELOP DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY, ESPECIALLY LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES.
KEY MESSAGE 3...A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES OUR REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND SOME
POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO OUR NORTH WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THIS PULLS A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS DEVELOP WITH THE ARRIVAL AND
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. A WARM AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IN PLACE
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND SOME THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
FRONT OR WITH A PRE-FRONTAL ZONE OF FORCING. THE TIMING AT NIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS HOWEVER IS NOT IDEAL FOR SUPPORTING
THUNDER GIVEN THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING, ESPECIALLY AS THE UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO LAG WELL TO OUR WEST. HOWEVER GIVEN THE
MILD TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT, WITH TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY
NOT DROPPING OFF AS MUCH, INSTABILITY COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF
ESPECIALLY ELEVATED INSTABILITY. AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH,
VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST WITH AROUND 80
KNOTS AT 500 MB AND 50-60 KNOTS AT 850 MB. THIS WILL RESULT IN
STRONG SHEAR PROFILES THAT WOULD FAVOR LINE SEGMENTS WITH LOCALLY
STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. GIVEN THE TIMING HOWEVER, THE GREATER
RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE JUST TO OUR WEST WHERE
STRONGER FORCING COINCIDES WITH GREATER INSTABILITY WITH STRONG
SHEAR. THIS CONVECTION MAY TEND TO WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS EAST LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AND ARRIVES INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES.
THIS IS A STRONG COLD FRONT THOUGH, SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR HOW
ORGANIZED THE CONVECTION GETS TO OUR WEST AS THAT WILL DETERMINE ITS
EASTWARD LONGEVITY AND THEREFORE SEVERITY. GIVEN THE SETUP, ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM ROUGHLY ALONG AND
NORTH/WEST OF I-95 WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT CLEARS OUR REGION BY LATER THURSDAY MORNING, THEN
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. IT LOOKS LIKE
THE DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE WILL OCCUR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT, THEN
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY FALL INTO AND THROUGH THE 50S IN THE MORNING
TO THE 40S BY LATE AFTERNOON AS STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP
BEHIND THE FRONT.
AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
TODAY...VFR EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KT. A SEABREEZE SHOULD
DEVELOP AND TURN WINDS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT KMIV AND KACY IN THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE, WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF
SEA BREEZE WIND SHIFT.
TONIGHT...PREVAILING VFR EXPECTED FOR MOST TERMINALS. THE
EXCEPTION IS NEAR KMIV AND KACY WHERE ANOTHER ROUND OF MARINE
FOG, MIST, AND STRATUS IS POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 KT
OR LESS. LOW-MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH INCREASING CLOUDS DURING THE DAY, THEN AREAS OF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS MAINLY AT NIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE AT NIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST TO 20 KNOTS.
THURSDAY..SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING, THEN VFR.
SOUTHWEST WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS.
FRIDAY...VFR OVERALL. SOME RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95. SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY GUST TO 25 KNOTS.
SATURDAY...VFR.
MARINE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH SEAS AROUND 2-3 FEET. AREAS OF PATCHY MARINE FOG
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF DENSE MARINE
FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. OUTSIDE OF
FOG, FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING. FOG POSSIBLE
IN THE MORNING.
THURSDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS PROBABLE
FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAINLY AT NIGHT.
SATURDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
CLIMATE
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR MARCH 10TH AND
11TH. RECORDS FOR OUR CLIMATE SITES ARE LISTED BELOW:
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES: MARCH 10
SITE............................RECORD/YEAR
ALLENTOWN (ABE).....................80/2016
AC AIRPORT (ACY)....................81/2016
AC MARINA (55N).....................68/2000 & 2016
GEORGETOWN (GED)....................80/2006
MOUNT POCONO (MPO)..................69/1977
PHILADELPHIA (PHL)..................82/2016
READING (RDG).......................79/2016
TRENTON (TTN).......................81/2016
WILMINGTON (ILG)....................80/2016
RECORD WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURES: MARCH 11
SITE............................RECORD/YEAR
ALLENTOWN (ABE).....................44/2006
AC AIRPORT (ACY)....................48/1955
AC MARINA (55N).....................51/2016
GEORGETOWN (GED)....................55/1955 & 1986
MOUNT POCONO (MPO)..................47/1955
PHILADELPHIA (PHL)..................54/1955
READING (RDG).......................51/1955
TRENTON (TTN).......................51/1955
WILMINGTON (ILG)....................48/1955
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES: MARCH 11
SITE............................RECORD/YEAR
ALLENTOWN (ABE).....................73/2021
AC AIRPORT (ACY)....................79/1967
AC MARINA (55N).....................70/1879
GEORGETOWN (GED)....................77/2021
MOUNT POCONO (MPO)..................66/1977
PHILADELPHIA (PHL)..................74/2021
READING (RDG).......................77/2021
TRENTON (TTN).......................73/2021
WILMINGTON (ILG)....................74/2021
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AKL/DESILVA/GORSE
AVIATION...AKL/DESILVA/GORSE
MARINE...AKL/DESILVA/GORSE
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