048
FXUS61 KPHI 271755
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
155 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS DELMARVA
AND FAR SOUTHERN NJ. DRIER, BUT COLDER WEATHER TAKES HOLD INTO
TONIGHT.
2. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SATURDAY.
3. COLD START TO THE WEEKEND, THEN TURNING WARM AND UNSETTLED AS
NEXT WEEK PROGRESSES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS DELMARVA AND FAR SOUTHERN NJ. DRIER, BUT COLDER WEATHER
TAKES HOLD INTO TONIGHT.
THIS MORNING'S COLD FRONT IS NOW SOUTH OF OUR AREA, HOWEVER A
FEW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS DELMARVA AND FAR
SOUTHERN NJ THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO FALL INTO THE 40S THIS EVENING AND THEN 30S OVERNIGHT.
A BREEZY NORTH WIND WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING, HOWEVER
NORTHWEST WIND WILL PICK UP AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND BECOME GUSTY. BY
THE DAYTIME SATURDAY, NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 MPH MAY GUST UP TO
30 MPH AT TIMES. RATHER CHILLY AND BRISK FOR SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 40S IN MOST AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON
SATURDAY.
WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST, RELATIVELY
COLD, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS SET UP. MINRH VALUES WILL RANGE
FROM 20 TO 30 PERCENT AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO
20 MPH WITH 25 TO 30 MPH GUSTS. THIS MAY SET UP THE POTENTIAL
FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. MITIGATING FACTORS WILL BE RAINFALL
TODAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...COLD START TO THE WEEKEND, THEN TURNING WARM AND
UNSETTLED AS NEXT WEEK PROGRESSES.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY. WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST,
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER A BELOW NORMAL AIRMASS OVER THE REGION.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S FOR MOST OF THE
AREA, AND IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S OVER DELMARVA. THESE HIGHS ARE
SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. STRONG
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN POSSIBLY SOME VIRGA AND SOME
SPRINKLES, GIVEN HOW DRY IT WILL BE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS AROUND
10 WITH MINRH VALUES 25 TO 30 PERCENT.
HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY. RETURN FLOW SETS UP BEHIND THE DEPARTING
HIGH, AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
MID 50S OR SO ON SUNDAY, WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR.
GOING INTO THE NEW WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ENTRENCHED OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST, AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETS UP ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL USHER AN UNUSUALLY WARM AIRMASS INTO THE
AREA WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. CURRENT HIGH
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE 60S ON MONDAY, THEN IN THE 70S
FROM TUESDAY AND BEYOND. SOME SPOTS MAY BE AROUND 80, ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY.
ONE THING TO KEEP IN MIND FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR IS THAT THERE IS
THAT WITH HIGH PRESSURE PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA, THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT WOULD ALLOW MUCH
COLDER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION, AND THOSE UNUSUALLY HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT PAN OUT.
SEVERAL DISTURBANCES WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION STARTING ON
TUESDAY, AND THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 00Z...VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS, DIMINISHING
SOME LATE. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT MIV/ACY, BUT NO
RESTRICTIONS ANTICIPATED. HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERALL.
TONIGHT...VFR. NORTH WINDS 5-10 KTS, SHIFTING MORE NORTHWEST
AND BECOMING A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES AFTER 06Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SATURDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
KTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. NSW.
TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR, BUT SUB-VFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN SHRA.
MARINE
NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. WINDS OUT
OF THE NORTH AROUND 10-15 KT WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
KTS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS AROUND DAWN SATURDAY. A NEW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA
CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING FOR 25 KT WIND GUSTS,
THEN SUB-SCA CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-
431-454-455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
ANZ451>453.
DISCUSSION...HOEFLICH/MPS/STAARMANN
AVIATION...MPS/STAARMANN
MARINE...MPS/STAARMANN
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