837
FXUS61 KPHI 271835
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
235 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS DELMARVA
AND FAR SOUTHERN NJ. DRIER, BUT COLDER WEATHER TAKES HOLD INTO
TONIGHT.
2. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON SATURDAY.
3. WE TREND WARMER INTO NEXT WEEK WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS DELMARVA AND FAR SOUTHERN NJ. DRIER, BUT COLDER WEATHER
TAKES HOLD INTO TONIGHT.
THIS MORNING'S COLD FRONT IS NOW SOUTH OF OUR AREA, HOWEVER A
FEW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS DELMARVA AND FAR
SOUTHERN NJ THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO FALL INTO THE 40S THIS EVENING AND THEN 30S OVERNIGHT.
A BREEZY NORTH WIND WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING, HOWEVER
NORTHWEST WIND WILL PICK UP AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND BECOME GUSTY. BY
THE DAYTIME SATURDAY, NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 MPH MAY GUST UP TO
30 MPH AT TIMES. RATHER CHILLY AND BRISK FOR SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 40S IN MOST AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON
SATURDAY.
WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST, RELATIVELY
COLD, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS SET UP. MINRH VALUES WILL RANGE
FROM 20 TO 30 PERCENT AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO
20 MPH WITH 25 TO 30 MPH GUSTS. THIS MAY SET UP THE POTENTIAL
FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. MITIGATING FACTORS WILL BE RAINFALL
TODAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3...WE TREND WARMER INTO NEXT WEEK WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES
FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.
OUR HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT LEADING TO
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE IN THE 20S FOR MOST. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM THEN STARTS TO MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
WHICH ALLOWS FOR RETURN FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. WARM AIR
ADVECTION THEN OVERSPREADS THE REGION ALLOWING OUR WARMING TREND
TO BEGIN. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL THEN TAKE US INTO
MIDWEEK WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE 70S FOR MANY WITH
SOME LOCATIONS GETTING CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES.
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS, THE DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT ARE FOLLOWED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER. WE START OFF
WITH THE CHANCE (20-40%) OF SOME ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY NEAR AND NW OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND STALLS NEAR OR
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS STALLED BOUNDARY MOVES NORTH INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WARM FRONT IS ATTACHED TO A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE MIDWEST THAT MOVES INTO THE
NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IS DRIER FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. OUR BETTER POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS IS
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ATTACHED TO THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME, AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
THIS COLD FRONT LOOKS TO STALL ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK LEADING TO CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. DURING THE
END OF THE WEEK, THERE WILL BE A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
TO THE NORTH IN CANADA WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR COOLER AIR TO FILTER
IN. THIS COOLER AIR CAN IMPACT TEMPERATURES DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME, BUT DUE TO THIS BEING TOWARDS THE END OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 00Z...VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS, DIMINISHING
SOME LATE. A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT MIV/ACY, BUT NO
RESTRICTIONS ANTICIPATED. HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERALL.
TONIGHT...VFR. NORTH WINDS 5-10 KTS, SHIFTING MORE NORTHWEST
AND BECOMING A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES AFTER 06Z. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SATURDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
KTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR, BUT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHRA.
WEDNESDAY...SUB-VFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH.
MARINE
NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. WINDS OUT
OF THE NORTH AROUND 10-15 KT WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
KTS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS AROUND DAWN SATURDAY. A NEW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS
SUNDAY WITH WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KT. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
LOOKS MORE PROBABLE FOR SCA CONDITIONS WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT AND
SEAS NEAR 5 FEET. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH WIND GUSTS
OF 25-30 KTS AND SEAS OF 6-8 FEET.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 4 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ430-
431-454-455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
ANZ451>453.
DISCUSSION...GUZZO/HOEFLICH/STAARMANN
AVIATION...GUZZO/STAARMANN
MARINE...GUZZO/STAARMANN
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page