223
FXUS61 KPHI 280501
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
101 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
WEATHER CONDITIONS HOWEVER.
KEY MESSAGES
1. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SATURDAY.
2. WE TREND WARMER INTO NEXT WEEK WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS ON SATURDAY.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
COLDER AND DRIER AIR ARRIVES OVERNIGHT AS BREEZY CONDITIONS SET
UP. THE MINIMUM RH VALUES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 PERCENT
WHILE NORTHWEST WINDS RANGE FROM 10 TO 20 MPH WITH 25 TO 30 MPH
GUSTS. THIS MAY SET UP THE POTENTIAL FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
MITIGATING FACTORS WILL BE THE RAINFALL EARLIER TODAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...WE TREND WARMER INTO NEXT WEEK WITH MULTIPLE
CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.
OUR HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT LEADING TO
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.
LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT ARE IN THE 20S FOR MOST. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM THEN STARTS TO MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT
WHICH ALLOWS FOR RETURN FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. WARM AIR
ADVECTION THEN OVERSPREADS THE REGION ALLOWING OUR WARMING TREND
TO BEGIN. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL THEN TAKE US INTO
MIDWEEK WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE 70S FOR MANY WITH
SOME LOCATIONS GETTING CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES.
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS, THE DRY CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT ARE FOLLOWED BY UNSETTLED WEATHER. WE START OFF
WITH THE CHANCE (20-40%) OF SOME ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY NEAR AND NW OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND STALLS NEAR OR
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS STALLED BOUNDARY MOVES NORTH INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT. THIS WARM FRONT IS ATTACHED TO A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE MIDWEST THAT MOVES INTO THE
NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IS DRIER FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. OUR BETTER POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS IS
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ATTACHED TO THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME, AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
THIS COLD FRONT LOOKS TO STALL ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE END OF THE
WEEK LEADING TO CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. DURING THE
END OF THE WEEK, THERE WILL BE A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED TO
THE NORTH IN CANADA WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR COOLER AIR TO FILTER IN.
THIS COOLER AIR CAN IMPACT TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME,
BUT DUE TO THIS BEING TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD, THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 12Z...VFR. NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 6 TO 12 KT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TODAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KT AND GUSTS 20-30 KT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER 00Z, MAINLY OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KT OR LESS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR, BUT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHRA.
WEDNESDAY...SUB-VFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH.
MARINE
NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. WINDS OUT
OF THE NORTH AROUND 10-15 KT WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
KTS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN WATERS AROUND DAWN SATURDAY. A NEW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SCA CONDITIONS
SUNDAY WITH WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KT. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
LOOKS MORE PROBABLE FOR SCA CONDITIONS WITH WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT AND
SEAS NEAR 5 FEET. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH WIND GUSTS
OF 25-30 KTS AND SEAS OF 6-8 FEET.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EDT
THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ430-431-453>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT
THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ451-452.
DISCUSSION...GUZZO/HOEFLICH/STAARMANN
AVIATION...GUZZO/HOEFLICH/STAARMANN
MARINE...GUZZO/STAARMANN
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