848
FXUS61 KPHI 280631
AFDPHI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
231 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS FOR TODAY.
2. A ROLLER COASTER TEMPERATURE PATTERN RESUMES NEXT WEEK, WITH
SIGNIFICANT WARMING THROUGH MID WEEK FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER
WEATHER THEREAFTER, ALONG WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES OF RAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1. DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN SOME
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST GRADUALLY MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH
TODAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD UNTIL THE
HIGH GETS CLOSER, RESULTING IN DRY AND BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW.
THE RESULT WILL BE WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH PICKING UP
NOT LONG AFTER DAYBREAK AND CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.
WINDS RELAX QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN.
RAINFALL RECEIVED YESTERDAY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR A
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY TODAY. HOWEVER, WITH RH VALUES
DROPPING TO AROUND 20-30% AND BREEZY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH,
THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR ENHANCED FIRE SPREAD SHOULD SOMETHING
IGNITE. AFTER SOME COLLABORATION WITH FIRE WEATHER PARTNERS, A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR AN ELEVATED RISK OF WILDFIRE
SPREAD WILL BE ISSUED FOR OUR DELAWARE AND EASTERN SHORE
COUNTIES FOR TODAY.
FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TOMORROW WITH LESSER WINDS.
THIS SHOULD BE ONLY ONE DAY OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A ROLLER COASTER TEMPERATURE PATTERN RESUMES
NEXT WEEK, WITH SIGNIFICANT WARMING THROUGH MID WEEK FOLLOWED BY
MUCH COOLER WEATHER THEREAFTER, ALONG WITH MULTIPLE CHANCES OF
RAIN.
WARM FRONT STARTS LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY,
WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS, THOUGH
LATEST NBM IS FAIRLY DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOMEWHAT,
WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, PERHAPS
TOUCHING 70 IN SPOTS.
BEST CHANCE OF ANY RAIN WITH THE WARM FRONT REMAINS MONDAY NIGHT
PER THE LATEST NBM, WITH BEST ODDS ACROSS THE POCONOS. LOWS WILL
MODERATE SIGNIFICANTLY, WITH MUCH OF THE REGION NOT DROPPING
BELOW 50.
WARMER AIR FLOODS THE REGION, EXCEPT PERHAPS THE IMMEDIATE
COAST, ON TUESDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD 70S AS THE WARM FRONT CLEARS
THE REGION. STILL A SMALL CHANCE OF LINGERING RAIN IN THE
POCONOS.
WE MOST LIKELY GET DEEPEST INTO THE WARM SECTOR TUESDAY NIGHT,
WITH THE LOWEST CHANCE OF RAIN AND MANY AREAS POSSIBLY STAYING
IN THE 60S THROUGH THE NIGHT.
COLD FRONT PLOWS THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY
REACHING THE LOW 80S FOR MANY FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS (WILL NEED TO WATCH ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL) FOLLOWED
BY RAPID COOLING BACK TO THE 40S BY THE END OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WE'LL TRY TO DRY OUT THURSDAY, BUT WITH MUCH COOLER WEATHER IN
PLACE, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S. BEST CHANCE OF LINGERING RAIN
WILL BE IN SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA SOUTH OF PHILLY.
THINGS GET TRICKY TOWARDS WEEK'S END, AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
MAY PUSH INTO THE AREA WITH THE FRESH COLD AIR MASS. MUCH OF THE
AREA MAY STAY IN THE 40S WITH RAIN, AND IF THERE IS JUST ENOUGH
COLD AIR, SOME MIXING WITH SNOW ISN'T IMPOSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN
LOCALES. IT IS, AFTER ALL, ONLY EARLY APRIL... ONE OF PHILLY'S
BIGGEST SNOW STORMS EVER WAS APRIL 3RD 1915 WHEN 19 INCHES FELL,
SO ITS CERTAINLY WITHIN THE REALM TO STILL GET A LITTLE SNOW
THIS TIME OF YEAR. WE'LL JUST HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE...
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH 12Z...VFR. NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 6 TO 12 KT.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TODAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KT AND GUSTS 20-30 KT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...VFR. WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISH AFTER 00Z, MAINLY OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KT OR LESS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
TUESDAY...GENERALLY VFR, BUT SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY...SUB-VFR LIKELY WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
T-STORMS.
MARINE
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE ZONES
TODAY UNTIL 4 PM. WINDS WILL PICK UP LATER THIS MORNING OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST AROUND 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT. SEAS OF 3 TO
5 FEET EXPECTED TODAY.
FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT UNDER 10 KT, INCREASING TO AROUND
10-20 KT ON SUNDAY AS FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. DO NOT
EXPECT NEEDING AN SCA TOMORROW, BUT CANNOT RULE IT OUT ENTIRELY.
SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP MONDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD, WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING 25-30 KTS AND SEAS OF
5-6 FEET.
GALE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN CROSSES THE
REGION, WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY UP TO 35 KTS AND SEAS OF 6-10 FEET.
PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ430-
431-451>455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ANZ450.
DISCUSSION...HOEFLICH/RCM
AVIATION...HOEFLICH/RCM
MARINE...HOEFLICH/RCM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page